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Journal Article
Consumer Inflation Expectations Across Surveys and over Time
Knotek, Edward S.; Schoenle, Raphael; Leer, John; Hajdini, Ina; Pedemonte, Mathieu; Shiroff, Taylor; Pfajfar, Damjan (2025-08-07)
Different survey-based measures of consumer inflation expectations have diverged in recent months. This Economic Commentary compares these measures and the survey questions underlying them. Our analysis suggests that the divergences across survey-based measures of inflation expectations can be attributed to various features and sample characteristics specific to each survey.
Economic Commentary , Volume 2025 , Issue 07 , Pages 10

Journal Article
Neutral Interest Rates and the Monetary Policy Stance
Zaman, Saeed; Horn, Taylor N. (2025-09-02)
The neutral interest rate (r-star) is an important input in monetary policy discussions and is commonly used to assess the stance of monetary policy. This Economic Commentary presents estimates of the neutral interest rate from a recently developed model and provides a high-level description of this new model. With data through 2025:Q2, the model estimates the implied (medium-run) nominal neutral interest rate to be 3.7 percent, with a 68 percent coverage band ranging from 2.9 percent to 4.5 percent. Given that the effective nominal federal funds rate is currently in the range of 4.25 percent ...
Economic Commentary , Volume 2025 , Issue 08 , Pages 12

Journal Article
Understanding Inflation via Developments in Market and Nonmarket Inflation Rates
Zaman, Saeed; Verbrugge, Randal J. (2025-09-23)
This Economic Commentary examines the recent behavior and the longer-term properties of market-based and non-market-based inflation series, including their cyclical properties, historical revisions, and predictive power in explaining future PCE inflation. The examination reveals a statistically significant association between market-based PCE inflation and estimates of labor market slack, and a strong positive association between movements in the stock market and in some of the financial services components of non-market-based PCE inflation. Disinflation in overall PCE inflation over the ...
Economic Commentary , Volume 2025 , Issue 09 , Pages 8

Journal Article
Safety in Schools and Neighborhoods
Sylvera, Craig (2025-09-29)
Exposure to violent crime in childhood has potential long-run effects on students’ future earnings and hours worked. However, in the neighborhoods of students’ homes and schools where crime occurs, there are other factors at play working against students. This Economic Commentary discusses how violent crime and additional factors related to education potentially affect educational progress and, by extension, future labor force attachment. In school neighborhoods and residential neighborhoods where a lot of violent crime takes place, school administrators and students report a need for ...
Economic Commentary , Volume 2025 , Issue 10 , Pages 9

Journal Article
Did Inflation Affect Households Differently? A Look at the Postpandemic Inflation and Wage Growth Dynamics
Walker, Christopher J.; Luduvice, André; Truss-Williams, Anaya (2025-10-06)
We analyze the heterogeneous effects of postpandemic inflation and disinflation by inspecting inflation and wage growth experienced across quintiles of household income and wage distributions. We find that after inflation peaked in June 2022, households and workers in the bottom 40 percent of the income and wage distributions have consistently experienced both higher inflation and higher wage growth when compared to the middle 40 and top 20 percent of these distributions. Comparing the cumulated growth of both variables, we observe that the bottom and middle 40 percent reach the end of 2024 ...
Economic Commentary , Volume 2025 , Issue 11 , Pages 11

Journal Article
Has the Market’s Perception of the FOMC’s Reaction Function Changed since the Onset of the COVID-19 Pandemic?
Jia, Chengcheng; Cline, Alexander (2025-11-03)
A monetary policy reaction function typically describes how a central bank’s policy rate responds to changes in economic fundamentals, such as inflation and labor market conditions, and other factors. We use minute-by-minute data on two-year Treasury yields to study the market-expected monetary policy reaction function from 2004 to 2024. We find that financial markets expected monetary policy to react more aggressively to inflation news during 2022–2024 than in the pre-COVID-19-pandemic period. In addition, we find that the sensitivity of the two-year Treasury yield to economic news other ...
Economic Commentary , Volume 2025 , Issue 12 , Pages 9

Journal Article
Forecasting US Recessions in Real-Time Using Regional Economic Sentiment
Garciga, Christian; Mitchell, James (2025-11-10)
Measures of regional economic sentiment, extracted from the Beige Book using natural language processing methods, consistently delivered reliable real-time forecasts of US recessions from the mid-1980s through the COVID-19 pandemic recession. Since then, recession risk probabilities have been choppy, with several false alarms. We attribute this unreliability to a post-2021 disconnect between measures of economic activity and the sentiment of business and community leaders.
Economic Commentary , Volume 2025 , Issue 13 , Pages 12

Journal Article
Are Young College Graduates Losing Their Edge in the Job Market?
Kaymak, Barış; Cline, Alexander (2025-11-24)
High school graduates in their twenties have consistently experienced a higher unemployment rate than college graduates in the same age range. However, the unemployment gap between the two education groups has recently narrowed, reaching its lowest level since the late 1970s. This Economic Commentary shows that this narrowing coincides with a decades-long decline, one that began around 2000, in the job-finding rate among young college graduates.
Economic Commentary , Volume 2025 , Issue 14 , Pages 10

Journal Article
How Anchored Are Short-Run Inflation Expectations Today? A Look at What Consumers and Forecasters Are Telling Us
Cline, Alexander; Rich, Robert W. (2026-02-02)
Policymakers emphasize the importance of “well-anchored” inflation expectations to ensure that price- and wage-setting behavior does not become entrenched in a high-inflation cycle, helping central banks to maintain price stability and achieve their inflation objectives. Motivated by concerns about trade tensions in the aftermath of high pandemic-era inflation, we examine the anchoring of consumers’ and professional forecasters’ one-year-ahead inflation expectations for evidence of recent weakening. While the inflation expectations of professional forecasters remain well-anchored, ...
Economic Commentary , Volume 2026 , Issue 01 , Pages 14

Journal Article
The Accounts of the Unbanked and Underbanked
Zimmerman, Peter; Puzzello, Daniela; Panzitta, Geena; Boel, Paola (2026-02-23)
We conducted focus groups with financially underserved Americans to learn more about how they manage their money. We spoke with 36 unbanked and underbanked individuals in Houston, Texas, and Cleveland, Ohio, about how they make and receive payments, the challenges they encounter in managing their finances, and how these experiences shape their views of financial service providers. While several participants described negative experiences with bank fees and concerns about security vulnerabilities, they acknowledged that alternative financial service providers were not always adequate ...
Economic Commentary , Volume 2026 , Issue 02 , Pages 14

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