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Journal Article
Price stability and regional diversity
Hoskins, W. Lee (1991-05)
An argument against using short-term monetary policy to alleviate regional economic shocks and an analysis of how regional economic diversity lends strength to the goal of price stability as the Federal Reserve System's sole monetary policy focus.
Economic Commentary , Issue May

Journal Article
Fiscal policy and fickle fortunes: what’s luck got to do with it?
Altig, David E. (2000-04)
The author contends that luck has played a major role in the fiscal fortunes of the 1990s. He (along with many others) is therefore concerned about the unquestioned presumption that projected budget surpluses are as good as achieved. Such a presumption, he says, is a shaky foundation from which to launch major new budget initiatives.
Economic Commentary , Issue Apr

Journal Article
The outlook: no boom, no doom
Leovic, Lydia K.; Erceg, John J. (1991-12)
A summation of the forecasts of 25 economists meeting at the October 1991 meeting of the Fourth District Economists' Roundtable, with the consensus that a mild recovery is under way.
Economic Commentary , Issue Dec

Journal Article
Nondeliverable forwards: can we tell where the renminbi is headed?
Humpage, Owen F.; Higgins, Patrick C. (2005-09)
Since the early 1990s, international banks have been offering nondeliverable forward (NDF) contracts to clients who need to hedge exposures in currencies of emerging-market economies. Many also use the exchange rate on these contracts as a best guess of where the emerging-market currency is headed. The exchange rates on NDFs, however, likely embody a substantial risk premium that interferes with forecasting accuracy.
Economic Commentary , Issue Sep

Journal Article
Effective supervision and the evolving financial services industry
Jordan, Jerry L. (2001-06)
Technology, market consolidation, international competition, and new legislation are changing the face of the financial services industry. How are the agencies responsible for ensuring the safety and soundness of our financial system responding? This Commentary is adapted from a keynote address given by Jerry L. Jordan, president and chief executive officer of the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, at the 111th Annual Meeting of the Ohio Bankers association in May 2001.
Economic Commentary , Issue Jun

Journal Article
Estimating the Impact of Fast-Tracking Foreclosures in Ohio and Pennsylvania
Fee, Kyle; Fitzpatrick, Thomas J. (2014-03)
All the signs in the housing market seem to be pointing the right way, except the amount of time loans are spending in the foreclosure process. Foreclosure fast-tracks for vacant homes in foreclosure may help reverse that trend.
Economic Commentary , Issue March

Journal Article
Don't worry, we'll grow out of it: an analysis of demographics, consumer spending, and foreign debt
Byrne, Susan M.; Bryan, Michael F. (1990-10)
An analysis of the impact of the baby-boom generation's inrush into the work force on consumer spending, debt, and foreign investment, finding evidence that age demographics are a strong determinant of aggregate household consumption.
Economic Commentary , Issue Oct

Journal Article
Interest Rate Risk and Rising Maturities
Elamin, Mahmoud; Bednar, William (2014-10)
Banks have been steadily increasing their exposure to interest rate risk since the end of the financial crisis, though large and small banks are doing so in different ways. This Commentary examines the maturity structure of assets and liabilities to identify the underlying factors responsible for the rise in interest rate risk and the differences between large and small banks.
Economic Commentary , Issue Oct

Journal Article
The effect of war expenditures on U.S. output
Parrott, Sharon E.; Carlstrom, Charles T.; Gokhale, Jagadeesh (1991-02)
A study of how war-related temporary increases in government expenditures affect real interest rates and output, with particular emphasis on the probable fiscal effects of the Persian Gulf War.
Economic Commentary , Issue Feb

Journal Article
The Flattening of the Phillips Curve: Policy Implications Depend on the Cause
Occhino, Filippo (2019-07)
According to the historical relationship known as the Phillips curve, strengthening of the economy is commonly associated with increasing inflation. With inflation having only modestly picked up in the past few years as the economy has become more robust, many believe the Phillips curve relationship has weakened, with the curve becoming flatter. I show that the flattening can be due to very different types of structural changes and that knowing the type of change that has occurred is crucial for choosing the appropriate monetary policy.
Economic Commentary , Issue July

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