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What Is Driving Inflation—Besides the Usual Culprits?
Cotton, Christopher D.; Garga, Vaishali (2023-07-13)
The prices of services associated with low-skill workers have been a key driver of “supercore” inflation, which excludes food, energy prices, and shelter prices. Low-skill-services inflation seems to be tied to faster wage growth in those industries coming out of the COVID-19 pandemic. Wage growth in low-skill services has begun to decline, suggesting that there may be lower inflation in these industries going forward. At the same time, wage growth in high-skill services has recently accelerated, suggesting that there may be higher inflation in these industries in the near future.
Current Policy Perspectives

Report
Manufacturing Gains from Green Energy and Semiconductor Spending since the CHIPS and Inflation Reduction Acts
Barbiero, Omar (2024-11-19)
Real investment—spending (net of inflation) on nonresidential construction, manufacturing equipment, and intellectual property products (IPP)—in the United States has grown substantially over the last few years despite the high-interest-rate environment that emerged in 2022 and is only now beginning to subside. The current strength of investment is important to policymakers because its sensitivity to interest rates makes it a key channel through which monetary policy is transmitted into the economy and because real private domestic investment constitutes 15 percent of US real GDP.
Current Policy Perspectives , Paper 2024-7

Report
Tight credit conditions continue to constrain the housing recovery
Willen, Paul S.; Rappaport, Jordan (2014-07-07)
The expansion of Federal Housing Administration lending has let households with imperfect credit or the inability to make a large down payment maintain access to mortgage borrowing. Rather than excluding such households, lenders have been applying strict underwriting conditions on all borrowers. Clarifying what constitutes approved lending may help relax credit conditions with minimal increase in risk.
Current Policy Perspectives , Paper 141

Report
The Limited Role of Intergenerational Transfers for Understanding Racial Wealth Disparities
Sabelhaus, John Edward; Thompson, Jeffrey P. (2023-03-07)
Transfers of wealth between generations—whether through inheritances or inter vivos gifts—are less important in explaining racial disparities in wealth than might be expected. While this factor looms large in the media’s discussions of racial inequality, it explains relatively little of the disparities evident in the data. One reason is that most people, regardless of race, receive no inheritance or other transfer of substantial value. In addition, most recipients of inheritances ultimately consume those bequests and do not plan to leave substantial gifts to their offspring. Further, ...
Current Policy Perspectives

Report
Consumption Spending during the COVID-19 Pandemic
Cotton, Christopher D.; Garga, Vaishali; Rohan, Justin (2021-12-03)
We use a novel empirical approach to decompose the impact of different economic, demographic, and COVID-19–related factors (such as lockdowns, case counts, and vaccination rates) on consumption spending on a week-by-week basis during the pandemic. This allows us to study how demographic and economic groups were differentially affected by the pandemic while crucially controlling for other factors. Our results imply that Hispanic and college-educated populations showed particularly large and persistent declines in relative spending. We also compute the relative importance of factors in ...
Current Policy Perspectives

Report
Let's talk about it: what policy tools should the Fed \\"normally\\" use?
Barnes, Michelle L. (2014-12-29)
During the onset of a very severe financial and economic crisis in 2008, the federal funds rate reached the zero lower bound (ZLB). With this primary monetary policy tool therefore rendered ineffective, in November 2008 the Federal Reserve started to use its balance sheet as an alternative policy tool when it began the large-scale asset purchases. Now attention is turning to how the Fed should transition back to a more conventional monetary policy stance. Largely missing from these discussions about the Fed's "exit strategy" is a consideration that perhaps it should retain, not discard, ...
Current Policy Perspectives , Paper 14-12

Report
Relative pay, productivity, and labor supply
Bracha, Anat (2016-10-01)
Relative pay ? earnings compared with the earnings of others doing a similar job, or compared with one?s earnings in the past ? affects how much individuals would like to work (labor supply) and their effort on the job; it therefore has implications for both employers and policy makers. A collection of recent studies shows that relative pay information, even when it is irrelevant, significantly affects labor supply and effort. This effect stems mainly from those who compare unfavorably, as essentially all studies find that awareness of earning less than others or less than in the past ...
Current Policy Perspectives , Paper 17-2

Report
Credit supply disruptions: from credit crunches to financial crisis
Rosengren, Eric S.; Peek, Joe (2015-10-01)
Events that transpired during the recent financial crisis highlight the important role that financial intermediaries still play in the economy, especially during economic downturns. While the breadth and severity of the financial crisis took most observers by surprise, it has renewed academic interest in understanding the effects on the real economy of both financial shocks and the changing nature of financial intermediation. This interest in the real effects of financial shocks highlights a literature that began more than 20 years ago associated with the bank credit crunch of the early ...
Current Policy Perspectives , Paper 15-5

Report
Productivity in the slow lane?: the role of information and communications technology
Pearson, Alison; Wang, J. Christina (2014-12-22)
As the current recovery matures in the United States, evidence is mounting that total factor productivity (TFP), the typical measure of technological change, has moved back into the slow lane. This study uses industry data to explore the extent to which the acceleration in TFP in the late 1990s and early 2000s and the subsequent deceleration are attributable to unmeasured investment by firms to take full advantage of the new capabilities made possible by information and communications technology (ICT).
Current Policy Perspectives , Paper 14-10

Report
The effects of a stronger dollar on U.S. prices
Diez, Federico J.; Gopinath, Gita (2015-12-01)
Since 2014:Q3, the U.S. dollar has experienced the third-fastest appreciation in over 30 years, with its nominal exchange and real exchange rate rising 15 percent against almost all foreign currencies (as measured by the Major Currencies Dollar Index). This sudden and rapid gain has engendered concerns about how a stronger dollar will affect U.S. export and import prices and ultimately, consumer prices and inflation in the United States. This paper assembles a rich database, spanning the period from 1985:Q1 through 2014:Q4, that combines several measures of prices and exchange rates in order ...
Current Policy Perspectives , Paper 15-9

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