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Allocation and Employment Effect of the Paycheck Protection Program
Joaquim, Gustavo (2021-12-21)
The Paycheck Protection Program (PPP) was a large and unprecedented small-business support program enacted as a response to the COVID-19 crisis in the United States. The PPP administered almost $800 billion in loans and grants to small businesses through the banking system. However, there is still limited consensus on its overall effect on employment. This paper explores why it is challenging to estimate the effect of the PPP. To do so, we first focus on the timing of the allocation of PPP funds across regions and firms. Counties less affected by COVID-19 and with a larger presence of ...
Current Policy Perspectives

Report
Forecasting CPI Shelter under Falling Market-Rent Growth
Cotton, Christopher D.; O'Shea, John (2023-02-16)
Shelter (housing) costs constitute a large component of price indexes, including 42 percent of the widely followed core Consumer Price Index (CPI). The shelter prices measured in the CPI capture new and existing renters and tend to lag market rents. This lag explains how in recent months the shelter-price index (CPI shelter) has accelerated while market rents have pulled back. We construct an error correction model using data at the metropolitan statistical area level to forecast how CPI shelter will evolve. We forecast that CPI shelter will grow 5.88 percent from September 2022 to September ...
Current Policy Perspectives

Report
Productivity Improvements and Markup Normalization Can Support Further Wage Gains without Inflationary Pressures
Garga, Vaishali; Olivei, Giovanni P.; Wang, J. Christina (2024-06-27)
Wage inflation remains higher than it was before the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, raising concerns that it could hinder progress toward a return of price inflation to the Federal Reserve’s 2 percent target. The impact of wage inflation on price inflation, however, cannot be considered independently of the behavior of productivity and firms’ markups. In that context, there are scenarios in which wage inflation could stay above trend for a few more quarters without contributing to higher price inflation.
Current Policy Perspectives , Paper 2024-5

Report
Lessons Learned from Mortgage Borrower Policies and Outcomes during the COVID-19 Pandemic
Gerardi, Kristopher S.; Lambie-Hanson, Lauren; Willen, Paul S. (2022-07-07)
This article reviews the aid offered to the roughly 50 million homeowners with mortgages included in a forbearance program, and the Federal Reserve’s actions that pushed down mortgage rates, allowing many mortgage holders to reduce their monthly payments by refinancing. We deem these policies to be quite effective in relieving financial distress and allowing homeowners to stay in their homes, especially in contrast with the policies pursued during the Great Recession. We emphasize that these policies in part worked because of rising housing prices and home equity, before and during the ...
Current Policy Perspectives

Report
The emerging market economies in times of taper-talk and actual tapering
Diez, Federico J. (2014-11-14)
The emerging market economies (EME) experienced financial distress during two recent periods, both linked to the prospect of the Federal Reserve starting to slow its asset purchases. This policy change was expected to reverse the capital flows directed to the EME. Despite this aggregate effect, a closer analysis shows that there were significant differences across the EME during the time when talk of the upcoming taper began and the period when the policy was implemented. The author makes use of the literature on currency crises to analyze the different cross-country responses and to identify ...
Current Policy Perspectives , Paper 14-6

Report
Uptake of the Main Street Lending Program
Bräuning, Falk; Paligorova, Teodora (2021-03-19)
The Main Street Lending Program (Main Street) was one of several new credit facilities launched by the Federal Reserve and the U.S. Department of the Treasury (Treasury) in response to the COVID-19 pandemic. The Federal Reserve published draft terms for Main Street on April 9, 2020, and the program started purchasing loan participations on July 6, 2020, with the goal of supporting lending to a wide range of small and medium-sized businesses that were in sound financial condition before the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic. When the program’s draft terms were first circulated, pandemic-related ...
Current Policy Perspectives

Report
A post-mortem of the life insurance industry's bid for capital during the financial crisis
Martin, Cynthia; Bohn, James; Barnes, Michelle L. (2015-12-01)
The 2008-2009 financial crisis was the most serious shock to the U.S. financial system since the Great Depression of the 1930s. A number of large financial institutions failed during the crisis. Many institutions that survived did so only because of extraordinary actions undertaken by company management to maintain solvency, or through the extension of extraordinary support by the federal government and the Federal Reserve System. The impact of the financial crisis on the banking sector has been the subject of extensive research, discussion, and debate. Academic and policy researchers, as ...
Current Policy Perspectives , Paper 15-8

Report
How Did the MSLP Borrowers Fare Before and During COVID-19?
Wang, J. Christina; Ballance, Joshua; Qing, Melanie (2021-09-08)
This policy brief uses Dun & Bradstreet (D&B) data to assess whether the Main Street Lending Program (MSLP) borrowers were in worse financial health than their peers before COVID-19 hit the economy hard in March 2020 or suffered worse deterioration afterward. The findings can help us better understand why these firms sought to obtain MSLP loans. We find that MSLP borrowers tend to be larger than their peer firms (that is, firms in the same industry and state). Within the same size group, MSLP borrowers are on average younger than their peers. Borrowers tended to have a slightly higher ...
Current Policy Perspectives

Report
Labor market exit and re-entry: is the United States poised for a rebound in the labor force participation rate?
Cooper, Daniel H.; Luengo-Prado, Maria Jose (2014-09-03)
The U.S. labor force participation rate has declined sharply since 2007?far faster than can be explained by demographic shifts in the population. This brief analyzes the re-entry probability for individuals who exit the labor force as well as the financial demographic, and employment characteristics of these individuals. The vast majority of individuals under 45 years of age re-enter the labor market within four years of exiting; however, the re-entry rate drops substantially for 50?54 year-olds and 55?59 year-olds. Those individuals who exit the labor market appear more marginally attached ...
Current Policy Perspectives , Paper 14-2

Report
Addressing Housing Shortages through Tax Abatement
Willen, Paul S. (2024-03-28)
Rising rents, often attributed to a shortage of available housing, spotlight the urgent need to accelerate housing construction, particularly in Boston and other “superstar cities” where rents have been rising acutely. This report looks at the potential efficacy and costs of one particular policy option to jump-start residential construction: incentivizing developers to build by granting them tax abatements for new construction.
Current Policy Perspectives , Paper 2024-2

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