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Journal Article
Tracking productivity in real time
Kahn, James A.; Rich, Robert W. (2006-11)
Because volatile short-term movements in productivity growth obscure the underlying trend, shifts in this trend may go unrecognized for years - a lag that can lead to policy mistakes and hence economic instability. This study develops a model for tracking productivity that brings in additional variables to help reveal the trend. The model's success is evident in its ability to detect changes in trend productivity within a year or two of their occurrence. Currently, the model indicates that the underlying trend remains strong despite recent weak productivity data.
Current Issues in Economics and Finance , Volume 12 , Issue Nov

Journal Article
Issues in corporate governance
McDonough, William J. (2002-09)
On September 29, 2002, William J. McDonough, President of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, delivered the William Taylor Memorial Lecture in Washington, D.C., at an event cosponsored by the William Taylor Memorial Fund and the Group of Thirty, a private, international consultative group on economic and monetary affairs. In his lecture, Mr. McDonough describes the actions already taken by private and public sector groups to strengthen corporate governance and accounting standards and identifies areas where reforms are still needed.
Current Issues in Economics and Finance , Volume 8 , Issue Sep

Journal Article
Two new indexes offer a broad view of economic activity in the New York - New Jersey region
Rosen, Rae D.; Rich, Robert W.; Orr, James A. (1999-10)
The authors develop two coincident indexes that provide a comprehensive measure of economic activity in New Jersey, New York State, and New York City.
Current Issues in Economics and Finance , Volume 5 , Issue Oct

Journal Article
After the refinancing boom: will consumers scale back their spending?
Peach, Richard; Al-Haschimi, Alex; McConnell, Margaret M. (2003-12)
Concerns are rising that the recent surge in home equity withdrawal has left consumers in a weakened financial position that will, over time, prompt a retrenchment in spending. However, a look at household assets and liabilities suggests that consumers have used the withdrawn funds to restructure their balance sheets and reduce their debt service burden. As a result, households may be in a better position to spend in the years ahead.
Current Issues in Economics and Finance , Volume 9 , Issue Dec

Journal Article
The Federal Reserve's foreign exchange swap lines
Klagge, Nicholas; Fleming, Michael J. (2010-04)
The financial crisis that began in August 2007 disrupted U.S. dollar funding markets not only in the United States but also overseas. To address funding pressures internationally, the Federal Reserve introduced a system of reciprocal currency arrangements, or "swap lines," with other central banks. The swap line program, which ended early this year, enhanced the ability of these central banks to provide U.S. dollar funding to financial institutions in their jurisdictions.
Current Issues in Economics and Finance , Volume 16 , Issue Apr

Journal Article
Securities loans collateralized by cash: reinvestment risk, run risk, and incentive issues
Keane, Frank M. (2013-05)
Securities loans collateralized by cash are by far the most popular form of securities-lending transaction. But when the cash collateral associated with these transactions is actively reinvested by a lender?s agent, potential risks emerge. This study argues that the standard compensation scheme for securities-lending agents, which typically provides for agents to share in gains but not losses, creates incentives for them to take excessive risk. It also highlights the need for greater scrutiny and understanding of cash reinvestment practices?especially in light of the AIG experience, which ...
Current Issues in Economics and Finance , Volume 19 , Issue May

Journal Article
Trends in federal funds rate volatility
Hilton, R. Spence (2005-07)
The behavior of the fed funds rate-a key monetary policy target and a benchmark for short-term interest rates-is closely watched by many market participants. After a decade marked by periodic bouts of high volatility in the funds rate, volatility has declined sharply since 2001. An analysis of the major factors influencing the rate's behavior shows that some of the forces behind the current fall in volatility first emerged in response to the earlier increases.
Current Issues in Economics and Finance , Volume 11 , Issue Jul

Journal Article
How worrisome is a negative saving rate?
Steindel, Charles (2007-05)
The U.S. personal saving rate's negative turn in 2005 has raised concerns that Americans may have to curtail their spending and accept a lower standard of living as they pay off rising debts. However, a closer look at saving trends suggests that the risks to household well-being are overstated. The surge in energy costs may have temporarily dampened saving, while the accounting of household income from stock holdings may be skewing saving estimates. Moreover, broad measures of saving have remained positive, and household wealth is on the rise.>
Current Issues in Economics and Finance , Volume 13 , Issue May

Journal Article
Bank holding company capital ratios and shareholder payouts
Hirtle, Beverly (1998-09)
Last year's sharp drop in the capital ratios of bank holding companies could cast doubt on the companies' future capital strength, especially if credit quality eroded significantly or if profitability weakened. However, an analysis linking the drop in ratios to bank efforts to increase shareholder payouts in a period of strong profitability suggests that these concerns are premature.
Current Issues in Economics and Finance , Volume 4 , Issue Sep

Journal Article
The yield curve as a leading indicator: some practical issues
Estrella, Arturo; Trubin, Mary R. (2006-07)
Since the 1980s, economists have argued that the slope of the yield curve-the spread between long- and short-term interest rates-is a good predictor of future economic activity. While much of the existing research has documented how consistently movements in the curve have signaled past recessions, considerably less attention has been paid to the use of the yield curve as a forecasting tool in real time. This analysis seeks to fill that gap by offering practical guidelines on how best to construct the yield curve indicator and to interpret the measure in real time.
Current Issues in Economics and Finance , Volume 12 , Issue Jul

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