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Working Paper
Model confidence sets for forecasting models
Lunde, Asger; Hansen, Peter Reinhard; Nason, James M.
(2005)
The paper introduces the model confidence set (MCS) and applies it to the selection of forecasting models. An MCS is a set of models that is constructed so that it will contain the ?best? forecasting model, given a level of confidence. Thus, an MCS is analogous to a confidence interval for a parameter. The MCS acknowledges the limitations of the data so that uninformative data yield an MCS with many models, whereas informative data yield an MCS with only a few models. We revisit the empirical application in Stock and Watson (1999) and apply the MCS procedure to their set of inflation ...
FRB Atlanta Working Paper
, Paper 2005-07
Working Paper
Quantifying "Quantitative Tightening" (QT): How Many Rate Hikes Is QT Equivalent To?
Wei, Bin
(2022-07-15)
How many interest rate hikes is quantitative tightening (QT) equivalent to? In this paper, I examine this question based on the preferred-habitat model in Vayanos and Vila (2021). I define the equivalence between rate hikes and QT such that they both have the same impact on the 10-year yield. Based on the model calibrated to fit the nominal Treasury data between 1999 and 2022, I show that a passive roll-off of $2.2 trillion over three years is equivalent to an increase of 29 basis points in the current federal funds rate at normal times. However, during a crisis period with risk aversion ...
FRB Atlanta Working Paper
, Paper 2022-8
Working Paper
The dynamic between municipal revenue sources and the state-local relationship in New England
Dye, Richard F.
(2008)
This working paper was written for the New England Public Policy Center?s third annual conference: ?The Dynamic between Municipal Revenue Sources and the State-Local Relationship in New England?. It relies on data from the U.S. Census to examine the dynamic between municipal revenues and the state-local relationship in New England. The analysis shows that?compared with the nation as a whole?municipal governments in New England rely very heavily on the property tax. They also have limited or no access to local-option revenues such as sales taxes, and they rely less on fees and other nontax ...
New England Public Policy Center Working Paper
, Paper 08-1
Working Paper
Exchange rate uncertainty and economic growth in Latin America
McLeod, Darryl; Welch, John H.
(1993)
Working Papers
, Paper 9338
Working Paper
Building trade barriers and knocking them down: the political economy of unilateral trade liberalizations
Gould, David M.; Woodbridge, Graeme L.
(1995)
Working Papers
, Paper 9505
Working Paper
Fiscal policymaking and the central bank institutional constraint
Laney, Leroy O.; Burdekin, Richard C. K.
(1986)
Working Papers
, Paper 8606
Working Paper
Heterogeneity in the Pass-Through from Oil to Gasoline Prices: A New Instrument for Estimating the Price Elasticity of Gasoline Demand
Kilian, Lutz; Zhou, Xiaoqing
(2023-01-06)
We propose a new instrument for estimating the price elasticity of gasoline demand that exploits systematic differences across U.S. states in the pass-through of oil price shocks to retail gasoline prices. We show that these differences are primarily driven by the cost of producing and distributing gasoline, which varies with states’ access to oil and gasoline transportation infrastructure, refinery technology and environmental regulations, creating cross-sectional gasoline price shocks in response to an aggregate oil price shock. Time-varying estimates do not support the view that the ...
Working Papers
, Paper 2301
Working Paper
The 1980s divergence in per capita personal incomes: what does it tell us?
Sherwood-Call, Carolyn
(1994)
Working Papers in Applied Economic Theory
, Paper 94-11
Working Paper
The welfare consequences of ATM surcharges: evidence from a structural entry model
Gowrisankaran, Gautam; Krainer, John
(2004)
We estimate a structural model of the market for automatic teller machines (ATMs) in order to evaluate the implications of regulating ATM surcharges on ATM entry and consumer and producer surplus. We estimate the model using data on firm and consumer locations, and identify the parameters of the model by exploiting a source of local quasi?experimental variation, that the state of Iowa banned ATM surcharges during our sample period while the state of Minnesota did not. We develop new econometric methods that allow us to estimate the parameters of equilibrium models without computing ...
Working Paper Series
, Paper 2005-01
Working Paper
Reputation and Investor Activism: A Structural Approach
Swem, Nathan; Johnson, Travis L.
(2020-10-15)
We measure the impact of reputation for proxy fighting on investor activism by estimating a dynamic model in which activists engage a sequence of target firms. Our estimation produces an evolving reputation measure for each activist and quantifies its impact on campaign frequency and outcomes. We find that high reputation activists initiate 3.5 times as many campaigns and extract 85% more settlements from targets, and that reputation-building incentives explain 20% of campaign initiations and 19% of proxy fights. Our estimates indicate these reputation effects combine to nearly double the ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series
, Paper 2017-036r1
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C78 18 items
H23 18 items
H75 18 items
J60 18 items
L16 18 items
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C30 17 items
D11 17 items
F22 17 items
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G41 17 items
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N21 17 items
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C21 16 items
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D62 16 items
E71 16 items
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H0 16 items
H12 16 items
I1 16 items
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C25 15 items
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D13 14 items
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C8 13 items
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L81 13 items
N32 13 items
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C73 12 items
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F65 12 items
H2 12 items
H22 12 items
H32 12 items
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P16 12 items
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C80 11 items
D1 11 items
D8 11 items
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H3 11 items
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I20 11 items
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N1 11 items
R50 11 items
C72 10 items
D4 10 items
E7 10 items
E70 10 items
G53 10 items
H53 10 items
H7 10 items
K42 10 items
L20 10 items
L21 10 items
C1 9 items
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C6 9 items
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H72 9 items
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Q51 9 items
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C01 8 items
C54 8 items
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E0 8 items
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FILTER BY Keywords
Monetary policy 1163 items
Business cycles 541 items
Econometric models 447 items
Inflation (Finance) 421 items
Interest rates 391 items
Forecasting 272 items
Prices 258 items
Foreign exchange rates 255 items
Unemployment 246 items
Fiscal policy 225 items
Productivity 209 items
Wages 209 items
Risk 203 items
COVID-19 202 items
International trade 196 items
Inflation 167 items
Taxation 166 items
Labor market 159 items
Financial markets 158 items
Bank loans 151 items
Macroeconomics 137 items
Money 137 items
Financial crises 137 items
Consumption (Economics) 130 items
Banks and banking 126 items
Labor supply 124 items
Mortgages 124 items
time series analysis 119 items
Credit 117 items
Money supply 112 items
Employment 112 items
Inequality 111 items
Housing 110 items
Human capital 110 items
Debt 109 items
Bank capital 106 items
Stock - Prices 105 items
International finance 104 items
Consumer credit 102 items
Stock market 101 items
Investments 99 items
Liquidity (Economics) 98 items
Employment (Economic theory) 96 items
Phillips curve 94 items
Foreign exchange 90 items
Uncertainty 90 items
Economic development 89 items
liquidity 89 items
Education 87 items
Monetary policy - United States 86 items
Trade 86 items
Japan 85 items
Asset pricing 85 items
Bankruptcy 83 items
Rational expectations (Economic theory) 83 items
Bank failures 82 items
Capital 82 items
Income 82 items
Payment systems 77 items
Financial stability 77 items
Technology 76 items
Welfare 76 items
Bank supervision 75 items
Consumer behavior 75 items
Regional economics 75 items
Banks and banking, Central 73 items
Bank mergers 72 items
Saving and investment 72 items
Financial institutions 71 items
Mortgage loans 71 items
zero lower bound 70 items
Heterogeneous Agents 69 items
Credit cards 67 items
consumption 67 items
Econometrics 66 items
Deposit insurance 65 items
financial crisis 64 items
Risk management 61 items
Wealth 61 items
Equilibrium (Economics) 59 items
Bonds 57 items
Competition 56 items
Vector autoregression 56 items
Banks 56 items
Manufactures 55 items
Monetary theory 55 items
Economic forecasting 54 items
Production (Economic theory) 54 items
Federal Reserve 53 items
Bank reserves 52 items
Recessions 52 items
Unemployment insurance 52 items
Income distribution 51 items
Bank lending 51 items
Corporations - Finance 50 items
Housing - Prices 50 items
Stocks 49 items
Regulation 49 items
Capital movements 47 items
Great Recession 47 items
Labor productivity 46 items
Default 46 items
Banks and banking - Costs 45 items
Inventories 45 items
Small business 45 items
Banking 45 items
China 44 items
Mortgage 44 items
Incomplete Markets 43 items
Social security 43 items
Systemic risk 43 items
financial frictions 43 items
Banking market 42 items
Exports 42 items
Bank competition 41 items
Developing countries 40 items
Mexico 40 items
Real-time data 40 items
pandemic 40 items
Gross domestic product 39 items
Bank deposits 38 items
Emerging markets 38 items
forward guidance 38 items
Capital market 37 items
Foreign exchange - Law and legislation 37 items
Securities 37 items
options 36 items
Foreclosure 35 items
Investment 35 items
Misallocation 35 items
Derivative securities 34 items
Federal Open Market Committee 34 items
Futures 34 items
Investments, Foreign 34 items
Bayesian estimation 34 items
Dollar, American 33 items
Germany 33 items
Insurance 33 items
Ramsey Problem 33 items
Savings and loan associations 33 items
Climate change 33 items
Volatility 33 items
inflation expectations 33 items
Bank holding companies 32 items
Keynesian economics 32 items
capital asset pricing model 32 items
Macroprudential policy 32 items
heterogeneity 32 items
Balance of payments 31 items
Economics 31 items
Federal funds rate 31 items
Default (Finance) 30 items
Federal funds market (United States) 30 items
Government securities 30 items
Credit supply 30 items
Money theory 29 items
recession 29 items
Expenditures, Public 28 items
Immigrants 28 items
Income tax 28 items
Poverty 28 items
Retirement 28 items
discretion 28 items
mobility 28 items
Banking structure 27 items
Petroleum industry and trade 27 items
Subprime mortgage 27 items
Expectations 27 items
Job Search 27 items
Capital investments 26 items
Economies of scale 26 items
economic conditions - United States 26 items
Growth 26 items
firm dynamics 26 items
Contracts 25 items
Depressions 25 items
Financial services industry 25 items
Open market operations 25 items
Tariff 25 items
vacancies 25 items
Asia 24 items
Asset-backed financing 24 items
Globalization 24 items
Household finance 24 items