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Content Type:Working Paper 

Working Paper
Rational expectations and the dynamic adjustment of security analysts' forecasts to new information

FRB Atlanta Working Paper , Paper 93-9

Working Paper
Optimal fiscal policy when public capital is productive: a business cycle perspective

A presentation of a dynamic general-equilibrium model with productive public capital to help account for differences in the business cycle characteristics of public- versus private- sector expenditures in postwar U.S. data.
Working Papers (Old Series) , Paper 9507

Working Paper
The computational experiment: an econometric tool

A specification of the steps in designing a computational experiment to address a well-posed quantitative question, emphasizing that the computational experiment is an econometric tool used in the task of deriving the quantitative implications of theory.
Working Papers (Old Series) , Paper 9420

Working Paper
Demographics and the Evolution of Global Imbalances

The age distribution evolves asymmetrically across countries, influencing relative saving rates and labor supply. Emerging economies experienced faster increases in working age shares than advanced economies did. Using a dynamic, multicountry model I quantify the effect of demographic changes on trade imbalances across 28 countries since 1970. Counterfactually holding demographics constant reduces net exports in emerging economies and boosts them in advanced economies. On average, a one percentage point increase in a country?s working age share, relative to the world, increases its ratio of ...
Globalization Institute Working Papers , Paper 332

Working Paper
Current Account Adjustment and Retained Earnings

This paper develops a formal strategy to calculate current accounts with retained earnings (RE) on equity investment and analyzes their adjustment during the global financial crisis. RE are the part of companies' profits which are reinvested and not distributed to shareholders as dividends. International statistical standards treat RE on foreign direct investment and RE on portfolio investment differently: while the former enter the current and financial account, the latter do not. We show that this differential treatment strongly affects current accounts of several advanced economies, ...
Globalization Institute Working Papers , Paper 345

Working Paper
The impact of the maquiladora industry on U.S. border cities

For decades, the maquiladora industry has been a major economic engine along the U.S.?Mexico border. Since the 1970s, researchers have analyzed how the maquiladora industry affects cities along both sides of the border. Gordon Hanson (2001) produced the first comprehensive study on the impact of the maquiladoras on U.S. border cities, considering the impact of these in-bond plants on both employment and wages. His estimates became useful rules of thumb for the entire U.S.?Mexico border. These estimates have become dated, as Hanson's study covered the period from 1975 to 1997. The purpose of ...
Working Papers , Paper 1107

Working Paper
Macroeconomic implications of changes in the term premium

Linearized New Keynesian models and empirical no-arbitrage macro-finance models offer little insight regarding the implications of changes in bond term premiums for economic activity. We investigate these implications using both a structural model and a reduced-form framework. We show that there is no structural relationship running from the term premium to economic activity, but a reduced-form empirical analysis does suggest that a decline in the term premium has typically been associated with stimulus to real economic activity, which contradicts earlier results in the literature.
Working Paper Series , Paper 2006-46

Working Paper
The Olympic effect

Economists are skeptical about the economic benefits of hosting "mega-events" such as the Olympic Games or the World Cup, since such activities have considerable cost and seem to yield few tangible benefits. These doubts are rarely shared by policymakers and the population, who are typically quite enthusiastic about such spectacles. In this paper, we reconcile these positions by examining the economic impact of hosting mega-events like the Olympics; we focus on trade. Using a variety of trade models, we show that hosting a mega-event like the Olympics has a positive impact on national ...
Working Paper Series , Paper 2009-06

Working Paper
The usefulness of core PCE inflation measures

This paper examines a number of alternative PCE price inflation measures including overall PCE inflation, PCE inflation excluding food and energy, trimmed mean PCE inflation, component-smoothed inflation, variance-weighted inflation, inflation with weights based on disaggregated regressions, and survey measures of inflation expectations. When averaging across a handful of specifications based on the primary uses of a core inflation measure three conclusions arise: 1. Inflation rates for nearly all the measures best track ex-post trend inflation or predict future overall inflation when they ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 2011-56

Working Paper
Pricing systemic crises: monetary and fiscal policy when savers are uncertain

The return on assets depends on the joint behavior of all savers; if all sell the asset simultaneously, then there will be a financial "Armageddon." We assume that risk-neutral savers' information about aggregate investment is too vague to form precise probability estimates, so they have Knightian uncertainty, and thus act to maximize their minimum payoff. Savers invest in a risky asset (economy-wide production) and in a riskless asset (government bonds). In times of high uncertainty, savers hold too many government bonds, lowering output. A monetary policy of lowering the risk-free rate ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 1999-33

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