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Working Paper
International Stock Comovements with Endogenous Clusters
Owyang, Michael T.; Jackson, Laura E.; Coroneo, Laura
(2018-10-24)
We use an endogenous cluster factor model to examine international stock return comovements of country-industry portfolios. Our model allows country-industry portfolio comovements to be driven by a global and a cluster component, with the cluster membership endogenously determined. Results indicate that country-industry portfolios tend to cluster mainly within geographical areas that can include one or more countries. The cluster component was the main driver of country-industry portfolio returns for most of the sample, except from mid-2000 to mid-2010s when the global component had a more ...
Working Papers
, Paper 2018-038
Working Paper
International Stock Comovements with Endogenous Clusters
Owyang, Michael T.; Jackson, Laura E.; Coroneo, Laura
(2020-03-27)
We examine international stock return comovements of country-industry portfolios. Our model allows comovements to be driven by a global and a cluster component, with the cluster membership endogenously determined. Results indicate that country-industry portfolios tend to cluster mainly within geographical areas that can include one or more countries. The cluster compositions substantially changed over time, with the emergence of clusters among European countries from the early 2000s. The cluster component was the main driver of country-industry portfolio returns for most of the sample, except ...
Working Papers
, Paper 2018-038
Working Paper
The Nonlinear Effects of Uncertainty Shocks
Owyang, Michael T.; Jackson, Laura E.; Kliesen, Kevin L.
(2018-11-16)
We consider the effects of uncertainty shocks in a nonlinear VAR that allows uncertainty to have amplification effects. When uncertainty is relatively low, fluctuations in uncertainty have small, linear effects. In periods of high uncertainty, the effect of a further increase in uncertainty is magnified. We find that uncertainty shocks in this environment have a more pronounced effect on real economic variables. We also conduct counterfactual experiments to determine the channels through which uncertainty acts. Uncertainty propagates through both the household consumption channel and through ...
Working Papers
, Paper 2018-035
Journal Article
The Nonlinear Effects of Uncertainty Shocks
Owyang, Michael T.; Jackson, Laura E.; Kliesen, Kevin L.
(2019-10-26)
We consider the effects of uncertainty shocks in a nonlinear VAR that allows uncertainty to have amplification effects. When uncertainty is relatively low, fluctuations in uncertainty have small, linear effects. In periods of high uncertainty, the effect of a further increase in uncertainty is magnified. We find that uncertainty shocks in this environment have a more pronounced effect on real economic variables. We also conduct counterfactual experiments to determine the channels through which uncertainty acts. Uncertainty propagates through both the household consumption channel and through ...
Working Papers
, Volume 24
, Issue 4
Working Paper
How to Starve the Beast: Fiscal Policy Rules
Martin, Fernando M.
(2020-10-14)
Countries have widely imposed fiscal rules designed to constrain government spending and ensure fiscal responsibility. This paper studies the effectiveness and welfare implications of revenue, deficit and debt rules when governments are discretionary and profligate. The optimal prescription is a revenue ceiling coupled with a balance budget requirement. For the U.S., the optimal revenue ceiling is about 15% of output, 3 percentage points below the postwar average. Most of the benefits can still be reaped with a milder constraint or escape clauses during adverse times. Imposing a single fiscal ...
Working Papers
, Paper 2019-026
Working Paper
Mortgage Prepayment, Race, and Monetary Policy
Gerardi, Kristopher S.; Willen, Paul S.; Zhang, David Hao
(2020-09-01)
This paper documents large differences in mortgage prepayment behavior across racial and ethnic groups in the United States, which have significant implications for monetary policy, inequality, and pricing. Using a novel data set that combines administrative data on mortgage performance with information on race and ethnicity, we show that Black and Hispanic white borrowers have significantly lower prepayment rates compared with Non-Hispanic white borrowers, holding income, credit score, and equity constant. This gap is on the order of 50 percent and largely reflects different sensitivities ...
Working Papers
, Paper 20-7
Working Paper
Exporting and Pollution Abatement Expenditure: Evidence from Firm-Level Data
Roy, Jayjit; Banerjee, Soumendra N.; Yasar, Mahmut
(2020-07-17)
The relevance of analyzing whether exporting firms engage in greater pollution abatement cannot be overemphasized. For instance, the question relates to the possibility of export promotion policies being environmentally beneficial. In fact, the issue is especially relevant for developing countries typically characterized by ineffective environmental regulation. However, despite the significance of the topic, the extant literature examining the environmental consequences of firm-level trade is skewed toward developed countries. Moreover, the existing contributions rarely attend to concerns ...
Globalization Institute Working Papers
, Paper 393
Working Paper
Real Effects of Foreign Exchange Risk Migration: Evidence from Matched Firm-Bank Microdata
Abbassi, Puriya; Bräuning, Falk
(2020-07-01)
When firms trade forward contracts with banks to protect foreign currency cash flows against exchange rate movements, foreign exchange risk migrates to the banking sector. We show how this migrated risk may induce systemic repercussions with severe implications for the real economy. For identification, we exploit the Brexit referendum in June 2016 as a quasi-natural experiment in combination with detailed microdata on forward contracts and the credit register in Germany. Before the referendum, firms substantially increased their use of derivatives in response to the heightened uncertainty; ...
Working Papers
, Paper 20-8
Working Paper
Consumer Payment Choice for Bill Payments
Greene, Claire; Stavins, Joanna
(2020-06-01)
Why do US consumers pay their bills the way they do? Using data from a recent diary of consumer payment behavior, we find that the type of bill consumers are paying and how they are paying (online or automatically) are important factors in determining the payment method, in addition to the dollar value of the bill and the demographic and income profile of the individual who is paying. In contrast, dollar value and demographic attributes are found to be the most important factors determining the payment instrument chosen for purchases. Consumer choices for bill payments are somewhat ...
Working Papers
, Paper 20-9
Working Paper
Central Bank Communication with a Financial Stability Objective
Arseneau, David M.
(2020-10-13)
An endogenous financial crisis is introduced into the canonical model used to study central bank transparency. The central bank is endowed with private information about the real economy and credit conditions which jointly determine financial vulnerabilities. An optimal choice is made regarding whether to communicate this information to the public. A key finding is that the optimal communication strategy depends on the state of the credit cycle and the composition of shocks driving the cycle. From a policy perspective, this raises the possibility that central bank communication in the ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series
, Paper 2020-087
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L10 17 items
L14 17 items
L25 17 items
D18 16 items
I38 16 items
O4 16 items
Q54 16 items
R10 16 items
C31 15 items
D22 15 items
D63 15 items
E65 15 items
E66 15 items
F47 15 items
I10 15 items
I22 15 items
N20 15 items
R3 15 items
C10 14 items
C78 14 items
D10 14 items
D53 14 items
H55 14 items
J2 14 items
J30 14 items
J6 14 items
L26 14 items
O18 14 items
R38 14 items
D60 13 items
H71 13 items
O3 13 items
O31 13 items
C21 12 items
C24 12 items
C3 12 items
C5 12 items
C62 12 items
C83 12 items
D21 12 items
D30 12 items
D43 12 items
E02 12 items
G51 12 items
H56 12 items
I12 12 items
J3 12 items
R41 12 items
C30 11 items
C50 11 items
D11 11 items
E1 11 items
E10 11 items
F37 11 items
G31 11 items
H50 11 items
I28 11 items
L1 11 items
L16 11 items
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R13 11 items
C18 10 items
C68 10 items
D13 10 items
D85 10 items
F17 10 items
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R51 10 items
C36 9 items
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H3 9 items
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C25 8 items
C34 8 items
C6 8 items
C80 8 items
D61 8 items
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H2 8 items
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K42 8 items
L85 8 items
N1 8 items
O10 8 items
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Q41 8 items
R1 8 items
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C43 7 items
C72 7 items
C8 7 items
D62 7 items
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D90 7 items
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H0 7 items
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H75 7 items
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L86 7 items
M41 7 items
N13 7 items
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O1 7 items
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C1 6 items
C73 6 items
C91 6 items
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H12 6 items
H52 6 items
H6 6 items
H81 6 items
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J32 6 items
J33 6 items
L21 6 items
M13 6 items
O14 6 items
O19 6 items
O38 6 items
Q32 6 items
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Q51 6 items
R0 6 items
R40 6 items
C20 5 items
C41 5 items
C54 5 items
C60 5 items
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D4 5 items
D42 5 items
D74 5 items
E59 5 items
G00 5 items
G35 5 items
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H60 5 items
H70 5 items
I26 5 items
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R4 5 items
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E0 4 items
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N90 4 items
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P16 4 items
Q35 4 items
Q53 4 items
R14 4 items
R5 4 items
R50 4 items
R52 4 items
C00 3 items
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G0 3 items
H00 3 items
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show more (495)
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FILTER BY Keywords
Monetary policy 961 items
Business cycles 505 items
Econometric models 447 items
Inflation (Finance) 421 items
Interest rates 365 items
Prices 256 items
Foreign exchange rates 255 items
Forecasting 241 items
Risk 198 items
Fiscal policy 185 items
Wages 183 items
Productivity 182 items
Unemployment 176 items
International trade 161 items
Taxation 159 items
Labor market 157 items
Financial markets 146 items
Bank loans 142 items
Macroeconomics 133 items
Money 133 items
Consumption (Economics) 130 items
Banks and banking 124 items
Time-series analysis 118 items
Financial crises 117 items
Mortgages 116 items
Credit 112 items
Money supply 112 items
Debt 106 items
Stock - Prices 105 items
International finance 104 items
Labor supply 102 items
Stock market 101 items
Bank capital 100 items
Investments 98 items
Liquidity (Economics) 98 items
Employment (Economic theory) 96 items
Housing 90 items
Economic development 89 items
Foreign exchange 89 items
Monetary policy - United States 86 items
Human capital 86 items
Rational expectations (Economic theory) 83 items
Capital 82 items
Bank failures 80 items
Income 79 items
Japan 79 items
Asset pricing 79 items
Trade 79 items
Bankruptcy 77 items
Payment systems 77 items
Consumer behavior 75 items
Regional economics 75 items
Bank supervision 74 items
Technology 74 items
Employment 74 items
Banks and banking, Central 73 items
Bank mergers 72 items
Saving and investment 72 items
Mortgage loans 71 items
Financial institutions 68 items
Inflation 68 items
Uncertainty 68 items
COVID-19 67 items
Econometrics 66 items
Deposit insurance 65 items
Consumer credit 65 items
Education 62 items
Phillips curve 60 items
Equilibrium (Economics) 59 items
Wealth 58 items
Financial crisis 58 items
zero lower bound 58 items
Bonds 57 items
Vector autoregression 56 items
Manufactures 55 items
Monetary theory 55 items
Economic forecasting 54 items
Production (Economic theory) 54 items
Credit cards 54 items
Competition 53 items
Bank reserves 52 items
Risk management 52 items
Liquidity 52 items
Inequality 51 items
Welfare 51 items
Corporations - Finance 50 items
Housing - Prices 50 items
Income distribution 50 items
Stocks 49 items
Social security 49 items
Capital movements 47 items
Banks and banking - Costs 45 items
Inventories 45 items
Labor productivity 45 items
Small business 45 items
Banking market 42 items
Consumption 42 items
Exports 41 items
Mexico 40 items
Recessions 40 items
Financial stability 40 items
Developing countries 39 items
Gross domestic product 39 items
Regulation 38 items
Bank competition 37 items
Bank deposits 37 items
Capital market 37 items
China 37 items
Foreign exchange - Law and legislation 37 items
Securities 37 items
Systemic risk 36 items
Options (Finance) 35 items
Incomplete Markets 35 items
Derivative securities 34 items
Foreclosure 34 items
Investments, Foreign 34 items
Dollar, American 33 items
Futures 33 items
Germany 33 items
Savings and loan associations 33 items
Bank holding companies 32 items
Federal Open Market Committee 32 items
Keynesian economics 32 items
Banks 32 items
Balance of payments 31 items
Capital assets pricing model 31 items
Federal funds rate 31 items
Default (Finance) 30 items
Economics 30 items
Federal funds market (United States) 30 items
Government securities 30 items
Insurance 30 items
Great Recession 29 items
Money theory 29 items
Expenditures, Public 28 items
Income tax 28 items
quantitative easing 28 items
Banking structure 27 items
Immigrants 27 items
Petroleum industry and trade 27 items
Subprime mortgage 27 items
Forward guidance 27 items
Real-time data 27 items
Capital investments 26 items
Contracts 26 items
Economic conditions - United States 26 items
Economies of scale 26 items
Default 25 items
Depressions 25 items
Financial services industry 25 items
Open market operations 25 items
Retirement 25 items
Bayesian estimation 25 items
Asia 24 items
Asset-backed financing 24 items
Federal Reserve 24 items
Research and development 24 items
Tariff 24 items
Household finance 24 items
Demography 23 items
Emerging markets 23 items
Emigration and immigration 23 items
Game theory 23 items
Markets 23 items
Statistics 23 items
Stock exchanges 23 items
Globalization 22 items
Great Britain 22 items
Gross national product 22 items
Households - Economic aspects 22 items
International economic relations 22 items
Labor mobility 22 items
Loans 22 items
Pensions 22 items
Inflation targeting 22 items
Bond market 21 items
Clearinghouses (Banking) 21 items
Demand for money 21 items