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Report
Tight credit conditions continue to constrain the housing recovery

The expansion of Federal Housing Administration lending has let households with imperfect credit or the inability to make a large down payment maintain access to mortgage borrowing. Rather than excluding such households, lenders have been applying strict underwriting conditions on all borrowers. Clarifying what constitutes approved lending may help relax credit conditions with minimal increase in risk.
Current Policy Perspectives , Paper 141

Report
How Do Households Respond to Income Shocks?

We use panel data from the Italian Survey of Household Income and Wealth from 1991 to 2016 to document empirically what components of the household budget constraint change in response to shocks to household labor income, both over shorter and over longer horizons. We show that shocks to labor income are associated with negligible changes in transfers and non-labor income components, modest changes in consumption expenditures, and large changes in wealth. We then split the sample in households which do not own business or real estate wealth, and households who do. For the first group, we find ...
Staff Report , Paper 655

Report
Do banks follow their customers abroad?

The market share of U.S. business loans made by foreign-owned banks has increased dramatically since 1980. At the same time, foreign direct investment in the U.S. rose, so that much of the increase in foreign-owned U.S.-based bank lending to businesses in the U.S. could conceivably be accounted for by an increase in loans to the U.S. affiliates of firms headquartered abroad, an expectation in line with the conventional wisdom that bans "follow their customers" abroad. Our study investigates the lending patterns of U.S.-based banks from Japan, Canada, France, Germany, the Netherlands, and ...
Research Paper , Paper 9620

Report
Regulatory evaluation of value-at-risk models

Beginning in 1998, commercial banks may determine their regulatory capital requirements for market risk exposure using value-at-risk (VaR) models; i.e., time-series models of the distributions of portfolio returns. Currently, regulators have available three statistical methods for evaluating the accuracy of VaR models: the binomial method, the interval forecast method, and the distribution forecast method. These methods test whether the VaR forecasts in question exhibit properties characteristics of accurate VaR forecasts. However, the statistical tests can have low power against alternative ...
Research Paper , Paper 9710

Report
Price stability: why we seek it and how best to achieve it

Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland President Sandra Pianalto explains why price stability is essential for maximum employment and how the adoption of a numerical target for inflation may improve the central bank?s ability to achieve both objectives. Find the essay, along with Frequently Asked Questions about inflation.
Annual Report

Report
Instrumental variables procedures for estimating linear rational expectations models

A prediction formula for geometrically declining sums of future forcing variables is derived for models in which the forcing variables are generated by a vector autoregressive-moving average process. This formula is useful in deducing and characterizing cross-equation restrictions implied by linear rational expectations models.
Staff Report , Paper 70

Report
Engineering a paradox of thrift recession

We build a variation of the neoclassical growth model in which financial shocks to households or wealth shocks (in the sense of wealth destruction) generate recessions. Two standard ingredients that are necessary are (1) the existence of adjustment costs that make the expansion of the tradable goods sector difficult and (2) the existence of some frictions in the labor market that prevent enormous reductions in real wages (Nash bargaining in Mortensen-Pissarides labor markets is enough). We pose a new ingredient that greatly magnifies the recession: a reduction in consumption expenditures ...
Staff Report , Paper 478

Report
Resolving “Too Big to Fail”

Using a synthetic control research design, we find that ?living will? regulation increases a bank?s annual cost of capital by 22 basis points, or 10 percent of total funding costs. This effect is stronger in banks that were measured as systemically important before the regulation?s announcement. We interpret our findings as a reduction in ?too big to fail? subsidies. The size of this effect is large: a back-of-the-envelope calculation implies a subsidy reduction of $42 billion annually. The impact on equity costs drives the main effect. The impact on deposit costs is statistically ...
Staff Reports , Paper 859

Report
Inflation persistence: alternative interpretations and policy implications

In this paper, I consider the policy implications of two alternative structural interpretations of observed inflation persistence, which correspond to two alternative specifications of the new Keynesian Phillips curve (NKPC). The first specification allows for some degree of intrinsic persistence by way of a lagged inflation term in the NKPC. The second is a purely forward-looking model, in which expectations farther into the future matter and coefficients are time-varying. In this specification, most of the observed inflation persistence is attributed to fluctuations in the underlying ...
Staff Reports , Paper 286

Report
Corporate governance and banks: what have we learned from the financial crisis?

Recent academic work and policy analysis give insight into the governance problems exposed by the financial crisis and suggest possible solutions. We begin this paper by explaining why governance of banks differs from governance of nonfinancial firms. We then look at four areas of governance: executive compensation, boards, risk management, and market discipline. We discuss promising solutions and areas where further research is needed.
Staff Reports , Paper 502

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