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Content Type:Discussion Paper 

Discussion Paper
Assessing the impact of electronic benefits transfer on America's communities and the U.S. payment system

The Center co-sponsored this conference with the Community Affairs Department and the Electronic Funds Transfer Association?s EBT Industry Council. The purpose of the conference was to provide a forum for community, banking, and payment industry leaders on the future of EBT. The sessions provided an understanding of what EBT is, an assessment of its impact on communities, an examination of its legacy as a payment system, and a look ahead to its continuing role in American communities
Consumer Finance Institute discussion papers , Paper 05-02

Discussion Paper
Promising Workforce Development Approaches

On November 9, 2018, at the New York Fed, three expert panels discussed promising approaches to investing in workforce development as part of the launch of the three-volume book Investing in America’s Workforce: Improving Outcomes for Workers and Employers. Read highlights from the discussions below.
Workforce Currents , Paper 2019-02

Discussion Paper
The Boston Fed study of consumer behavior and payment choice: a survey of Federal Reserve System employees

The way people pay for goods and services is changing dramatically, but little data and research on consumer behavior and payment choice are publicly available. This paper describes the results of a survey of payment behavior and attitudes taken by Federal Reserve employees in 2004. Major contributions of the survey are that it asks: 1) why payment choices are made; 2) why individual payment behavior has changed; and 3) why individual-specific payment characteristics matter for payment choice. Although the survey is not statistically representative of U.S. consumers, and thus may not provide ...
Public Policy Discussion Paper , Paper 07-1

Discussion Paper
Forecasting the end of the global recession: did we miss the early signs?

This paper looks at the term-structure literature to identify early signs predicting recessionary patterns in the U.S. and other developed economies. Based on the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) and Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI) recession dates, we define the probability of recession as a function of the traditional yield spread, plus a forward-looking measure of growth expectations, namely the output gap growth spread. For other countries, we extend the model and make it additionally dependent on the probability of recession in the U.S. Our results indicate that most ...
Staff Papers , Issue Apr

Discussion Paper
Living at Home Ain't Such a Drag (on Spending): Young Adults' Spending In and Out of Their Parents' Home

In this Note, we quantify the net change in annual spending by a young adult who has just moved out of her parents' home.
FEDS Notes , Paper 2019-02-05

Discussion Paper
Self-fulfilling Prophecies in Sovereign Debt Markets

In this paper, we discuss conditions under which adverse expectations can trigger abrupt and large changes in the interest rate at which a sovereign country can borrow in international financial markets. We argue that such changes are caused by self-fulfilling expectations outcomes, in which interest rates are high because the perceptions of future defaults are high, but those perceptions are high precisely because the interest rates are high. {{p}} A model based on these elements successfully simulates the near-default experience of Greece, Italy, Spain and Portugal, among other countries. ...
Economic Policy Paper , Paper 16-8

Discussion Paper
Will “Quantitative Easing” Trigger Inflation?

The Federal Reserve announced on November 3, 2010, that in the interest of stimulating economic recovery, it would purchase $600 billion of longer-term Treasury securities. The announcement led some commentators to conjecture that the Fed’s large-scale asset purchase (LSAP) program—popularly known as “quantitative easing”—is more likely to trigger inflation than stimulate recovery. This post discusses why those concerns may be misplaced, and also why they are not without some basis. A recent Liberty Street Economics post by James J. McAndrews—“Will the Federal Reserve's Asset ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20110608

Discussion Paper
The Overnight Drift in U.S. Equity Returns

Since the advent of electronic trading in the late 1990s, S&P 500 futures have traded close to 24 hours a day. In this post, which draws on our recent Staff Report, we document that holding U.S. equity futures overnight has earned a large positive return during the opening hours of European markets. The largest positive returns in the 1998–2019 sample have accrued between 2 a.m. and 3 a.m. U.S. Eastern time—the opening of European stock markets—and averaged 3.6 percent on an annualized basis, a phenomenon we call the overnight drift.
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20210526

Discussion Paper
Selection into financial literacy programs: evidence from a field study

As financial literacy has been shown to correlate with good financial decisions, policymakers promote educational programs to improve individuals? financial decisions. But who selects into educational programs and who acquires information about personal finance? This paper, in a field study with more than 870 individuals, offers individuals free information about their credit reports (and credit scores). About 55 percent choose to participate in this small counseling program. To test whether those who self-select to acquire information about personal finance differ from those who do not on ...
Public Policy Discussion Paper , Paper 07-5

Discussion Paper
Job Reallocation and Unemployment in Equilibrium

Job reallocation in the U.S.--the sum of job creation and job destruction across employers--has been declining over several decades. This piece looks at the relationship between job reallocation and the long-run rate of unemployment ("LRU") both theoretically and empirically. In this piece I show how declines in job reallocation can coincide with higher or lower unemployment– the sign and magnitude of the relationship is ambiguous.
FEDS Notes , Paper 2017-04-20-2

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