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Blog
American Firms Foresee a Huge Negative Impact of the Coronavirus
Bloom, Nicholas; Altig, David E.; Mihaylov, Emil; Parker, Nicholas B.; Barrero, Jose Maria; Davis, Steven J.; Meyer, Brent (2020-03-23)
The rapid unfolding of the COVID-19 pandemic has created grave concerns for the health and welfare of the U.S. population and the economy. The economic worries are very apparent in financial markets. From the closing bell on February 21 through March 20, U.S. equities fell more than 30 percent, and stock market volatility skyrocketed.
Macroblog

Blog
Amid the COVID-19 Crisis, a Tale of Two Cities
Ruder, Alexander; Ilin, Elias; Robertson, John C.; Terry, Ellyn (2020-04-09)
The COVID-19 pandemic has resulted in both a major public health crisis and a major economic crisis. The economic impact is coming primarily via social distancing (or stay-in-place) restrictions that have resulted in the temporary closing of nonessential businesses in many parts of the country. As a result, millions of workers have been laid off or furloughed. Unemployment claims for the week ending March 21 totaled more than 3 million—the highest number of seasonally adjusted initial claims in the history of the series at that time. That record was broken quickly. For the week ending March ...
Macroblog

Blog
Unpaid Absence from Work Because of COVID-19
Robertson, John C. (2020-04-13)
As has been widely reported, the March employment report shed light on the early impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the U.S. labor market. One telling number is the official unemployment rate, which tallies the share of the labor force made up of people out of work (but who are looking for a job) plus those who have been laid off and expect to be recalled. The official unemployment rate increased from 3.5 percent in February to 4.4 percent in March. My own preferred measure is the share of the working-age population who are unemployed, working part-time because of economic conditions, or ...
Macroblog

Blog
Businesses Are in Uncharted Waters
Meyer, Brent; Parker, Nicholas B. (2020-04-17)
Inflation expectations in our April Business Inflation Expectations (BIE) survey fell to an all-time low (going back to October 2011) of 1.4 percent, plunging far below its next lowest level of 1.7 percent (most recently observed in February 2020). Perhaps unsurprisingly, firms have bigger worries on their minds. And our boss, President Raphael Bostic, agreed, noting on Wednesday that "inflation at this point is not something I'm particularly worried about."
Macroblog

Blog
COVID-19 Caused 3 New Hires for Every 10 Layoffs
Altig, David E.; Barrero, Jose Maria; Bloom, Nicholas; Davis, Steven J.; Meyer, Brent; Mihaylov, Emil; Parker, Nicholas B. (2020-05-01)
Reports about the economic fallout from the coronavirus pandemic and efforts to slow its spread make for grim reading. One especially grim statistic is the number of layoffs. Since early March, just over 28 million persons have filed new claims for unemployment insurance benefits (roughly 30 million if you seasonally adjust).
Macroblog

Blog
U.S. Firms Foresee Intensifying Coronavirus Impact
Altig, David E.; Barrero, Jose Maria; Bloom, Nicholas; Davis, Steven J.; Meyer, Brent; Mihaylov, Emil; Parker, Nicholas B. (2020-05-04)
In late March—even before many states had issued shelter-in-place, stay-at-home, or shutdown orders—we noted that firms were bracing for a huge negative impact on sales revenues from developments surrounding the coronavirus. Results from our March Survey of Business Uncertainty (SBU)—a national survey of firms of varying sizes and industries—revealed that disruptions stemming from COVID-19 had led to sharp declines in expectations for year-ahead sales growth.
Macroblog

Blog
Research on Paying with Cash and Checks
Greene, Claire; Shy, Oz (2020-03-01)
The United States is a land of many firsts: first flight in an airplane (1903). First person on the moon (1969). First email sent (1971). First nation to go fully paperless for payments? Not so likely.
Notes from the Vault

Blog
Update on Lot Availability and Construction Lending
Canova, Robert; Hudson, Carl (2020-04-05)
"Location, location, location" is a truism associated with residential real estate. What we're hearing from our construction contacts could be another sort of truism: "Labor, lumber, lots." They are referring to the ongoing tight labor market in the construction trades, the skyrocketing price of lumber, and the difficulty of obtaining lots on which to build. While it's true that housing sector fundamentals—employment growth, household formation, tight inventory—continue to support an optimistic outlook, our industry contacts continue to report challenges regarding the supply chain. This ...
Real Estate Research

Blog
Southeast Housing Market and COVID-19
Dill, Jessica (2020-04-17)
Considering the devastating effects the COVID-19 pandemic is having on the economic landscape, we can think of no better time to revive our Real Estate Research blog. Atlanta Fed staff, often in partnership with researchers at other Reserve Banks, are continually working to track and assess COVID-19-related developments as they unfold in the housing and mortgage markets.
Real Estate Research

Blog
Global Perspectives: William Dudley on the Financial Crisis, the New York Fed and Misconceptions about the Fed
Wynne, Mark A. (2020-03-10)
Dudley and Dallas Fed President Robert S. Kaplan discussed Dudley’s role during the financial crisis, his leadership of the New York Fed and popular misconceptions about the Fed.
Dallas Fed Economics

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