Search Results

SORT BY: PREVIOUS / NEXT
Content Type:Working Paper 

Working Paper
Foreclosure externalities: Some new evidence

In a recent set of influential papers, researchers have argued that residential mortgage foreclosures reduce the sale prices of nearby properties. We revisit this issue using a more robust identification strategy combined with new data that contain information on the location of properties secured by seriously delinquent mortgages and information on the condition of foreclosed properties. We find that while properties in virtually all stages of distress have statistically significant, negative effects on nearby home values, the magnitudes are economically small, peak before the distressed ...
FRB Atlanta Working Paper , Paper 2012-11

Working Paper
Comparing New Keynesian models in the Euro area: a Bayesian approach

This paper estimates and compares four versions of the sticky price New Keynesian model for the Euro area, using a Bayesian approach as described in Rabanal and Rubio-Ramrez (2003). We find that the average duration of price contracts is between four and eight quarters, similar to the one estimated in the United States, while price indexation is found to be smaller. On the other hand, average duration of wage contracts is estimated to between one and two quarters, lower than the one found for the United States, while wage indexation is higher. Finally, the marginal likelihood indicates that ...
FRB Atlanta Working Paper , Paper 2003-30

Working Paper
Forecasting U.S. Economic Activity with a Small Information Set

We provide a parsimonious setup for forecasting U.S. GDP growth and the unemployment rate based on a few fundamental drivers. This setup yields forecasts that are reasonably accurate compared with private-sector and Federal Reserve forecasts over the 1984–2019 and post COVID-19 pandemic periods. This result is achieved by jointly estimating the processes for GDP growth and the unemployment rate, with the constraint that GDP and unemployment follow Okun’s law in first differences. This setup can be easily extended to replace the variables in the information set with factors that might ...
Working Papers , Paper 25-4

Working Paper
Technological innovation in mortgage underwriting and the growth in credit, 1985–2015

The application of information technology to finance, or ?fintech,? is expected to revolutionize many aspects of borrowing and lending in the future, but technology has been reshaping consumer and mortgage lending for many years. During the 1990s, computerization allowed mortgage lenders to reduce loan-processing times and largely replace human-based assessments of credit risk with default predictions generated by sophisticated empirical models. Debt-to-income ratios at origination add little to the predictive power of these models, so the new automated underwriting systems allowed higher ...
Working Papers , Paper 19-11

Working Paper
Currency portfolios and nominal exchange rates in a dual currency search economy

The authors analyze a dual-currency search model in which agents may hold multiple units of both currencies. They study equilibria in which the two currencies are identical and equilibria in which the two currencies differ according to the magnitude of the "inflation tax" risk associated with each. When one currency has the right amount of risk, equilibria exist in which the safe currency trades for multiple units of the risky one (pure currency exchange). As a result, the steady state has a distribution of nominal exchange rates. The mean and variance of this distribution typically change ...
Working Papers (Old Series) , Paper 9916

Working Paper
A Theory of Intrinsic Inflation Persistence

We propose a novel theory of intrinsic inflation persistence by introducing trend inflation and variable elasticity of demand in a model with staggered price and wage setting. Under nonzero trend inflation, the variable elasticity generates intrinsic persistence in inflation through a measure of price dispersion stemming from staggered price setting. It also introduces intrinsic persistence in wage inflation under staggered wage setting, which affects price inflation. With the theory we show that inflation exhibits a persistent, hump-shaped response to a monetary policy shock. We also show ...
Working Papers , Paper 19-16

Working Paper
The Effect of Component Disaggregation on Measures of the Median and Trimmed-Mean CPI

For decades, the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland (FRBC) has produced median and trimmed-mean consumer price index (CPI) measures. These have proven useful in various contexts, such as forecasting and understanding post-COVID inflation dynamics. Revisions to the FRBC methodology have historically involved increasing the level of disaggregation in the CPI components, which has improved accuracy. Thus, it may seem logical that further disaggregation would continue to enhance its accuracy. However, we theoretically demonstrate that this may not necessarily be the case. We then explore the ...
Working Papers , Paper 24-02

Working Paper
The Postpandemic U.S. Immigration Surge: New Facts and Inflationary Implications

The U.S. experienced an extraordinary postpandemic surge in unauthorized immigration. This paper combines administrative data on border encounters and immigration court records with household survey data to document two new facts about these immigrants: They tend to be hand-to-mouth consumers and low-skilled workers that complement the existing workforce. We build these features into a model with capital, household heterogeneity and population growth to study the inflationary effects of this episode. Contrary to the popular view, we find little effect on inflation, as the increase in supply ...
Working Papers , Paper 2407

Working Paper
Total Recall? Evaluating the Macroeconomic Knowledge of Large Language Models

We evaluate the ability of large language models (LLMs) to estimate historical macroeconomic variables and data release dates. We find that LLMs have precise knowledge of some recent statistics, but performance degrades as we go farther back in history. We highlight two particularly important kinds of recall errors: mixing together first print data with subsequent revisions (i.e., smoothing across vintages) and mixing data for past and future reference periods (i.e., smoothing within vintages). We also find that LLMs can often recall individual data release dates accurately, but aggregating ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 2025-044

Working Paper
Documentation of the Estimated, Dynamic, Optimization-based (EDO) model of the U.S. economy: 2010 version

This paper provides documentation for a large-scale estimated DSGE model of the U.S. economy--the Federal Reserve Board's Estimated, Dynamic, Optimization-based (FRB/EDO) model project. The model can be used to address a wide range of practical policy questions on a routine basis. The paper discusses the model's specification, estimated parameters, and key properties.
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 2010-29

FILTER BY year

FILTER BY Series

Working Papers 5004 items

Finance and Economics Discussion Series 3151 items

Working Paper Series 1534 items

International Finance Discussion Papers 1492 items

FRB Atlanta Working Paper 834 items

Working Papers (Old Series) 730 items

show more (26)

FILTER BY Content Type

FILTER BY Author

Wen, Yi 113 items

Berger, Allen N. 100 items

Owyang, Michael T. 91 items

Sanchez, Juan M. 88 items

Clark, Todd E. 87 items

Neely, Christopher J. 82 items

show more (495)

FILTER BY Jel Classification

E52 843 items

G21 838 items

E32 693 items

E58 517 items

E44 513 items

E24 450 items

show more (495)

FILTER BY Keywords

Monetary policy 953 items

Business cycles 464 items

Econometric models 446 items

Inflation (Finance) 420 items

Interest rates 368 items

Prices 259 items

show more (495)

PREVIOUS / NEXT