Search Results
Working Paper
Intrinsic and inherited inflation persistence
Fuhrer, Jeffrey C.
(2005)
In the now conventional view of the inflation process, the New Keynesian Phillips Curve (NKPC) captures most of the persistence in inflation. The sources of persistence are twofold. First, the ?driving process? for inflation?the output gap or, more commonly, real marginal cost?is itself quite persistent, and a casual inspection of the NKPC reveals that inflation must ?inherit? this persistence. Second, a modest amount of backward-looking or indexing behavior imparts some ?intrinsic? persistence to inflation. This latter source is generally thought to be of less importance than the former, as ...
Working Papers
, Paper 05-8
Working Paper
Goods-Market Frictions and International Trade
McCallum, Andrew H.; Krolikowski, Pawel
(2016-12-23)
We present a tractable framework that embeds goods-market frictions in a general equilibrium dynamic model with heterogeneous exporters and identical importers. These frictions arise because it takes time and expense for exporters and importers to meet. We show that search frictions lead to an endogenous fraction of unmatched exporters, alter the gains from trade, endogenize entry costs, and imply that the competitive equilibrium does not generally result in the socially optimal number of searching firms. Finally, ignoring search frictions results in biased estimates of the effect of tariffs ...
Working Papers (Old Series)
, Paper 1635
Working Paper
A New Model of Inflation, Trend Inflation, and Long-Run Inflation Expectations
Koop, Gary; Chan, Joshua C. C.; Clark, Todd E.
(2015-10-21)
A knowledge of the level of trend inflation is key to many current policy decisions, and several methods of estimating trend inflation exist. This paper adds to the growing literature which uses survey-based long-run forecasts of inflation to estimate trend inflation. We develop a bivariate model of inflation and long-run forecasts of inflation which allows for the estimation of the link between trend inflation and the long-run forecast. Thus, our model allows for the possibilities that long-run forecasts taken from surveys can be equated with trend inflation, that the two are completely ...
Working Papers (Old Series)
, Paper 1520
Working Paper
Late Payment Fees and Nonpayment in Rental Markets, and Implications for Inflation Measurement: Theoretical Considerations and Evidence
Janson, Wesley; Verbrugge, Randal J.
(2023-11-06)
Accurate rent measurement is essential for constructing a consumer price index (CPI) and for measuring household welfare. Late payment fees and nonpayment of rent are common components of rental expenditures and thus belong in CPIs. Late payment fees are often excluded; we offer a novel critique. In the US CPI, nonpayment is ostensibly included, but, we show, severely undermeasured. Moreover, the manner of its inclusion renders the CPI extremely sensitive to nonpayment variations; we show how to fix this. Nonpayment undermeasurement suggests at least a +1 ppt overestimate in 2020 CPI shelter ...
Working Papers
, Paper 20-22R2
Working Paper
How successful is the G7 in managing exchange rates?
Fratzscher, Marcel
(2009)
The paper assesses the extent to which the Group of Seven (G7) has been successful in its management of major currencies since the 1970s. Using an event-study approach, the paper finds evidence that the G7 has been overall effective in moving the U.S. dollar, yen and euro in the intended direction at horizons of up to three months after G7 meetings, but not at longer horizons. While the success of the G7 is partly dependent on the market environment, it is also to a significant degree endogenous to the policy process itself. The findings indicate that the reputation and credibility of the G7, ...
Globalization Institute Working Papers
, Paper 24
Working Paper
Optimal monetary policy in a currency union with interest rate spreads
Lee, Jae Won; Bhattarai, Saroj; Park, Woong Yong
(2013)
We introduce ?financial imperfections? - asymmetric net wealth positions, incomplete risksharing, and interest rate spread across member countries - in a prototypical two-country currency union model and study implications for monetary policy transmission mechanism and optimal policy. In addition to, and independent from, the standard transmission mechanism associated with nominal rigidities, financial imperfections introduce a wealth redistribution role for monetary policy. Moreover, the two mechanisms reinforce each other and amplify the effects of monetary policy. On the normative side, ...
Globalization Institute Working Papers
, Paper 150
Working Paper
Voluntary and Mandatory Social Distancing: Evidence on COVID-19 Exposure Rates from Chinese Provinces and Selected Countries
Chudik, Alexander; Rebucci, Alessandro; Pesaran, M. Hashem
(2020-04-17)
This paper considers a modification of the standard Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) model of epidemics that allows for different degrees of compulsory as well as voluntary social distancing. It is shown that the fraction of the population that self-isolates varies with the perceived probability of contracting the disease. Implications of social distancing both on the epidemic and recession curves are investigated and their trade off is simulated under a number of different social distancing and economic participation scenarios. We show that mandating social distancing is very effective ...
Globalization Institute Working Papers
, Paper 382
Working Paper
Pre-announcement effects, news, and volatility: monetary policy and the stock market
Bomfim, Antúlio N.
(2000)
I examine pre-announcement and news effects on the stock market in the context of public disclosure of monetary policy decisions. The results suggest that the stock market tends to be relatively quiet--conditional volatility is abnormally low--on days preceding regularly scheduled policy announcements. Although this calming effect is routinely reported in anecdotal press accounts, it is statistically significant only over the past four to five years, a result that I attribute to changes in the Federal Reserve's disclosure practices in early 1994. The paper also looks at how the actual ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series
, Paper 2000-50
Working Paper
Misspecification versus bubbles in hyperinflation data: Monte Carlo and interwar European evidence
Hooker, Mark A.
(1997)
This paper analyzes tests of the Cagan hyperinflation-money demand model that have several advantages relative to those in the literature. They do not confound specification error with rational bubbles, are implementable with a linear procedure, and are frequently able to detect periodically collapsing bubbles that have challenged existing tests. After a Monte Carlo analysis, the tests are applied to data from hyperinflations in Austria, Germany, Hungary, and Poland. Strong evidence of model misspecification is found for Austria, while the model with a rational, explosive component well ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series
, Paper 1997-49
Working Paper
The decline of activist stabilization policy: natural rate misperceptions, learning, and expectations
Williams, John C.; Orphanides, Athanasios
(2004)
We develop an estimated model of the U.S. economy in which agents form expectations by continually updating their beliefs regarding the behavior of the economy and monetary policy. We explore the effects of policymakers' misperceptions of the natural rate of unemployment during the late 1960s and 1970s on the formation of expectations and macroeconomic outcomes. We find that the combination of monetary policy directed at tight stabilization of unemployment near its perceived natural rate and large real-time errors in estimates of the natural rate uprooted heretofore quiescent inflation ...
International Finance Discussion Papers
, Paper 804
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