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Working Paper
Model confidence sets for forecasting models
Lunde, Asger; Hansen, Peter Reinhard; Nason, James M.
(2005)
The paper introduces the model confidence set (MCS) and applies it to the selection of forecasting models. An MCS is a set of models that is constructed so that it will contain the ?best? forecasting model, given a level of confidence. Thus, an MCS is analogous to a confidence interval for a parameter. The MCS acknowledges the limitations of the data so that uninformative data yield an MCS with many models, whereas informative data yield an MCS with only a few models. We revisit the empirical application in Stock and Watson (1999) and apply the MCS procedure to their set of inflation ...
FRB Atlanta Working Paper
, Paper 2005-07
Working Paper
Quantifying "Quantitative Tightening" (QT): How Many Rate Hikes Is QT Equivalent To?
Wei, Bin
(2022-07-15)
How many interest rate hikes is quantitative tightening (QT) equivalent to? In this paper, I examine this question based on the preferred-habitat model in Vayanos and Vila (2021). I define the equivalence between rate hikes and QT such that they both have the same impact on the 10-year yield. Based on the model calibrated to fit the nominal Treasury data between 1999 and 2022, I show that a passive roll-off of $2.2 trillion over three years is equivalent to an increase of 29 basis points in the current federal funds rate at normal times. However, during a crisis period with risk aversion ...
FRB Atlanta Working Paper
, Paper 2022-8
Working Paper
The dynamic between municipal revenue sources and the state-local relationship in New England
Dye, Richard F.
(2008)
This working paper was written for the New England Public Policy Center?s third annual conference: ?The Dynamic between Municipal Revenue Sources and the State-Local Relationship in New England?. It relies on data from the U.S. Census to examine the dynamic between municipal revenues and the state-local relationship in New England. The analysis shows that?compared with the nation as a whole?municipal governments in New England rely very heavily on the property tax. They also have limited or no access to local-option revenues such as sales taxes, and they rely less on fees and other nontax ...
New England Public Policy Center Working Paper
, Paper 08-1
Working Paper
Exchange rate uncertainty and economic growth in Latin America
McLeod, Darryl; Welch, John H.
(1993)
Working Papers
, Paper 9338
Working Paper
Building trade barriers and knocking them down: the political economy of unilateral trade liberalizations
Gould, David M.; Woodbridge, Graeme L.
(1995)
Working Papers
, Paper 9505
Working Paper
Fiscal policymaking and the central bank institutional constraint
Laney, Leroy O.; Burdekin, Richard C. K.
(1986)
Working Papers
, Paper 8606
Working Paper
Heterogeneity in the Pass-Through from Oil to Gasoline Prices: A New Instrument for Estimating the Price Elasticity of Gasoline Demand
Kilian, Lutz; Zhou, Xiaoqing
(2023-01-06)
We propose a new instrument for estimating the price elasticity of gasoline demand that exploits systematic differences across U.S. states in the pass-through of oil price shocks to retail gasoline prices. We show that these differences are primarily driven by the cost of producing and distributing gasoline, which varies with states’ access to oil and gasoline transportation infrastructure, refinery technology and environmental regulations, creating cross-sectional gasoline price shocks in response to an aggregate oil price shock. Time-varying estimates do not support the view that the ...
Working Papers
, Paper 2301
Working Paper
The 1980s divergence in per capita personal incomes: what does it tell us?
Sherwood-Call, Carolyn
(1994)
Working Papers in Applied Economic Theory
, Paper 94-11
Working Paper
The welfare consequences of ATM surcharges: evidence from a structural entry model
Gowrisankaran, Gautam; Krainer, John
(2004)
We estimate a structural model of the market for automatic teller machines (ATMs) in order to evaluate the implications of regulating ATM surcharges on ATM entry and consumer and producer surplus. We estimate the model using data on firm and consumer locations, and identify the parameters of the model by exploiting a source of local quasi?experimental variation, that the state of Iowa banned ATM surcharges during our sample period while the state of Minnesota did not. We develop new econometric methods that allow us to estimate the parameters of equilibrium models without computing ...
Working Paper Series
, Paper 2005-01
Working Paper
Reputation and Investor Activism: A Structural Approach
Swem, Nathan; Johnson, Travis L.
(2020-10-15)
We measure the impact of reputation for proxy fighting on investor activism by estimating a dynamic model in which activists engage a sequence of target firms. Our estimation produces an evolving reputation measure for each activist and quantifies its impact on campaign frequency and outcomes. We find that high reputation activists initiate 3.5 times as many campaigns and extract 85% more settlements from targets, and that reputation-building incentives explain 20% of campaign initiations and 19% of proxy fights. Our estimates indicate these reputation effects combine to nearly double the ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series
, Paper 2017-036r1
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Wen, Yi 110 items
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http://fedora:8080/fcrepo/rest/objects/authors/ 30 items
Brewer, Elijah 29 items
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Koenig, Evan F. 27 items
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Smith, Bruce D. 27 items
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Zhou, Hao 27 items
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C31 18 items
F66 18 items
H23 18 items
J60 18 items
R33 18 items
R51 18 items
C30 17 items
F45 17 items
G41 17 items
H75 17 items
I23 17 items
L16 17 items
N21 17 items
C21 16 items
C78 16 items
D11 16 items
D58 16 items
D62 16 items
E71 16 items
G02 16 items
H0 16 items
H12 16 items
I1 16 items
J26 16 items
O3 16 items
C25 15 items
C3 15 items
F22 15 items
I26 15 items
I30 15 items
I32 15 items
O14 15 items
D13 14 items
D30 14 items
D60 14 items
E02 14 items
H50 14 items
H55 14 items
J08 14 items
J18 14 items
L1 14 items
O30 14 items
Q35 14 items
R13 14 items
R41 14 items
C43 13 items
C62 13 items
C8 13 items
D61 13 items
F60 13 items
G40 13 items
J1 13 items
J10 13 items
L81 13 items
N32 13 items
O13 13 items
O50 13 items
Q40 13 items
R28 13 items
C26 12 items
F37 12 items
F65 12 items
H2 12 items
H22 12 items
H32 12 items
H41 12 items
H74 12 items
J38 12 items
L51 12 items
O10 12 items
O15 12 items
O38 12 items
O43 12 items
P16 12 items
C80 11 items
D1 11 items
D8 11 items
F17 11 items
F6 11 items
G52 11 items
H3 11 items
I11 11 items
I20 11 items
J33 11 items
L40 11 items
M41 11 items
Q41 11 items
R50 11 items
C73 10 items
D4 10 items
E7 10 items
G53 10 items
H53 10 items
H7 10 items
K42 10 items
L20 10 items
L21 10 items
L23 10 items
N1 10 items
C1 9 items
C34 9 items
C6 9 items
C72 9 items
D25 9 items
E70 9 items
H72 9 items
J7 9 items
J71 9 items
L2 9 items
M12 9 items
N11 9 items
O19 9 items
Q51 9 items
R1 9 items
R2 9 items
C01 8 items
C54 8 items
D33 8 items
D74 8 items
E0 8 items
E49 8 items
F38 8 items
G35 8 items
H6 8 items
H73 8 items
H77 8 items
J42 8 items
J68 8 items
J70 8 items
L85 8 items
L86 8 items
N92 8 items
O1 8 items
R0 8 items
R4 8 items
A14 7 items
C41 7 items
D02 7 items
D04 7 items
D42 7 items
D9 7 items
D90 7 items
F00 7 items
F5 7 items
F51 7 items
H52 7 items
J00 7 items
J14 7 items
J78 7 items
L60 7 items
L62 7 items
L74 7 items
L91 7 items
M13 7 items
M52 7 items
N13 7 items
O51 7 items
Q33 7 items
R14 7 items
R40 7 items
R52 7 items
R58 7 items
A19 6 items
C20 6 items
C4 6 items
C60 6 items
C87 6 items
C91 6 items
C93 6 items
D20 6 items
F02 6 items
F63 6 items
G29 6 items
H5 6 items
H51 6 items
H60 6 items
H70 6 items
J01 6 items
J12 6 items
L22 6 items
L5 6 items
L52 6 items
M37 6 items
O12 6 items
O24 6 items
Q32 6 items
Q56 6 items
A11 5 items
B4 5 items
C00 5 items
D0 5 items
D19 5 items
D23 5 items
D57 5 items
D71 5 items
D78 5 items
E26 5 items
E53 5 items
E59 5 items
E69 5 items
G19 5 items
H1 5 items
H11 5 items
H4 5 items
H40 5 items
H57 5 items
J28 5 items
J44 5 items
K12 5 items
K14 5 items
L50 5 items
M55 5 items
N4 5 items
O25 5 items
O32 5 items
O34 5 items
Q53 5 items
A1 4 items
B0 4 items
B41 4 items
C44 4 items
C46 4 items
C92 4 items
D01 4 items
D41 4 items
D44 4 items
D47 4 items
D50 4 items
E16 4 items
F2 4 items
F50 4 items
F61 4 items
G3 4 items
G39 4 items
G5 4 items
H42 4 items
H54 4 items
H68 4 items
H8 4 items
H84 4 items
H87 4 items
J50 4 items
K21 4 items
K40 4 items
L0 4 items
L41 4 items
M48 4 items
M51 4 items
N31 4 items
N42 4 items
N90 4 items
O17 4 items
O2 4 items
O23 4 items
O53 4 items
O57 4 items
Q42 4 items
Q48 4 items
Q5 4 items
Q58 4 items
R42 4 items
R5 4 items
C02 3 items
C19 3 items
C35 3 items
C67 3 items
C88 3 items
C99 3 items
D03 3 items
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D5 3 items
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D70 3 items
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G0 3 items
H43 3 items
H83 3 items
I19 3 items
I2 3 items
I3 3 items
J0 3 items
J45 3 items
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FILTER BY Keywords
Monetary policy 1155 items
Business cycles 539 items
Econometric models 447 items
Inflation (Finance) 421 items
Interest rates 388 items
Forecasting 272 items
Prices 258 items
Foreign exchange rates 255 items
Unemployment 237 items
Fiscal policy 221 items
Wages 209 items
Productivity 208 items
Risk 203 items
COVID-19 200 items
International trade 183 items
Taxation 165 items
Inflation 159 items
Labor market 158 items
Financial markets 158 items
Bank loans 151 items
Money 137 items
Financial crises 136 items
Macroeconomics 135 items
Consumption (Economics) 130 items
Banks and banking 126 items
Mortgages 123 items
Labor supply 122 items
time series analysis 119 items
Credit 117 items
Money supply 112 items
Debt 109 items
Employment 107 items
Housing 107 items
Bank capital 106 items
Human capital 106 items
Stock - Prices 105 items
International finance 104 items
Inequality 103 items
Stock market 101 items
Consumer credit 101 items
Investments 99 items
Liquidity (Economics) 98 items
Employment (Economic theory) 96 items
Phillips curve 93 items
Foreign exchange 90 items
Uncertainty 90 items
Economic development 89 items
liquidity 89 items
Monetary policy - United States 86 items
Education 85 items
Trade 85 items
Japan 84 items
Bankruptcy 83 items
Rational expectations (Economic theory) 83 items
Bank failures 82 items
Capital 82 items
Income 82 items
Payment systems 77 items
Technology 76 items
Welfare 76 items
Bank supervision 75 items
Consumer behavior 75 items
Regional economics 75 items
Financial stability 75 items
Asset pricing 74 items
Banks and banking, Central 73 items
Bank mergers 72 items
Saving and investment 72 items
Financial institutions 71 items
Mortgage loans 71 items
zero lower bound 69 items
Heterogeneous Agents 68 items
Credit cards 67 items
Econometrics 66 items
consumption 66 items
Deposit insurance 65 items
financial crisis 64 items
Risk management 61 items
Wealth 61 items
Equilibrium (Economics) 59 items
Bonds 57 items
Vector autoregression 56 items
Competition 55 items
Manufactures 55 items
Monetary theory 55 items
Economic forecasting 54 items
Production (Economic theory) 54 items
Banks 54 items
Federal Reserve 53 items
Bank reserves 52 items
Recessions 52 items
Income distribution 51 items
Corporations - Finance 50 items
Housing - Prices 50 items
Bank lending 50 items
Unemployment insurance 50 items
Stocks 49 items
Regulation 49 items
Capital movements 47 items
Great Recession 47 items
Labor productivity 46 items
Default 46 items
Banks and banking - Costs 45 items
Inventories 45 items
Small business 45 items
China 44 items
Banking 43 items
Mortgage 43 items
Systemic risk 43 items
Banking market 42 items
Exports 42 items
Incomplete Markets 42 items
Social security 42 items
Bank competition 41 items
financial frictions 41 items
Developing countries 40 items
Mexico 40 items
pandemic 40 items
Gross domestic product 39 items
Bank deposits 38 items
Emerging markets 38 items
Real-time data 38 items
Capital market 37 items
Foreign exchange - Law and legislation 37 items
Securities 37 items
forward guidance 37 items
options 36 items
Foreclosure 35 items
Investment 35 items
Derivative securities 34 items
Federal Open Market Committee 34 items
Futures 34 items
Investments, Foreign 34 items
Climate change 34 items
Dollar, American 33 items
Germany 33 items
Ramsey Problem 33 items
Savings and loan associations 33 items
Bayesian estimation 33 items
Misallocation 33 items
Bank holding companies 32 items
Insurance 32 items
Keynesian economics 32 items
capital asset pricing model 32 items
Volatility 32 items
heterogeneity 32 items
Balance of payments 31 items
Economics 31 items
Federal funds rate 31 items
inflation expectations 31 items
Default (Finance) 30 items
Federal funds market (United States) 30 items
Government securities 30 items
Credit supply 30 items
Macroprudential policy 30 items
Money theory 29 items
Expenditures, Public 28 items
Immigrants 28 items
Income tax 28 items
Poverty 28 items
Recession 28 items
discretion 28 items
Banking structure 27 items
Petroleum industry and trade 27 items
Retirement 27 items
Subprime mortgage 27 items
Expectations 27 items
Search 27 items
Capital investments 26 items
Economies of scale 26 items
economic conditions - United States 26 items
Growth 26 items
Contracts 25 items
Depressions 25 items
Financial services industry 25 items
Open market operations 25 items
Tariff 25 items
Mobility 25 items
Asia 24 items
Asset-backed financing 24 items
Globalization 24 items
Household finance 24 items
Research and development 24 items
vacancies 24 items
Demography 23 items
Game theory 23 items
Labor mobility 23 items
Markets 23 items
Statistics 23 items
Stock exchanges 23 items
bond markets 23 items
Emigration and immigration 22 items
Great Britain 22 items
Gross national product 22 items
Households - Economic aspects 22 items
International economic relations 22 items
Loans 22 items
Pensions 22 items
Sovereign default 22 items
Clearinghouses (Banking) 21 items
Corporate bonds 21 items
Demand for money 21 items
Federal Reserve System 21 items
Hedging (Finance) 21 items
Industries 21 items
small business finance 21 items
Balance of trade 20 items
Business enterprises 20 items
Debts, Public 20 items
Discount window 20 items
Macroeconomics - Econometric models 20 items
Real property 20 items
local projections 20 items
state finances 20 items
Automobile industry and trade 19 items
Discrimination in mortgage loans 19 items
Economic conditions 19 items
Education - Economic aspects 19 items
Global financial crisis 19 items
Housing - Finance 19 items
Industrial productivity 19 items
Information theory 19 items
Latin America 19 items
Mutual funds 19 items
Patents 19 items
Population 19 items
Surveys 19 items
quantitative easing 19 items
Branch banks 18 items
Computers 18 items
Consumer price indexes 18 items
Discrimination 18 items
Effective lower bound 18 items
Finance 18 items
Free trade 18 items
Inflation targeting 18 items
Rate of return 18 items
Technology - Economic aspects 18 items
Treasury bills 18 items
house prices 18 items
labor markets 18 items
Argentina 17 items
Bank management 17 items
Banks and banking, International 17 items
Bayesian methods 17 items
Budget deficits 17 items
Cities and towns 17 items
Debts, External 17 items
East Asia 17 items
Economic growth 17 items
Economic policy 17 items
Hours of labor 17 items
Human behavior 17 items
Imports 17 items
Information technology 17 items
Learning 17 items
Medicaid 17 items
Minimum wage 17 items
Pacific Area 17 items
Power resources - Prices 17 items
Price levels 17 items
Stochastic analysis 17 items
Taylor's rule 17 items
high-frequency data 17 items
machine learning 17 items
Commercial real estate 16 items
Corporate governance 16 items
European Economic Community 16 items
Financial crises - Asia 16 items
Government-sponsored enterprises 16 items
Home ownership 16 items
Mortgage-backed securities 16 items
North American Free Trade Agreement 16 items
Petroleum products - Prices 16 items
Portfolio management 16 items
Pricing 16 items
fintech 16 items
firm dynamics 16 items
government debt 16 items
Arbitrage 15 items
Bank investments 15 items
Bank profits 15 items
Bank stocks 15 items
Bayesian VARs 15 items
Cointegration 15 items
Crises 15 items
Economic indicators 15 items
Housing policy 15 items
Internet 15 items
Monetary policy - Japan 15 items
Sovereign Debt 15 items
exchange rates 15 items
household finances 15 items
policy 15 items
stochastic volatility 15 items
Automated tellers 14 items
Bayesian inference 14 items
Business cycle 14 items
Canada 14 items
Checks 14 items
Collateral 14 items
Community development 14 items
Consolidation and merger of corporations 14 items
Corporations 14 items
DSGE models 14 items
Economic stabilization 14 items
European Monetary System (Organization) 14 items
FOMC 14 items
Incomplete information 14 items
Job Search 14 items
Korea 14 items
Labor turnover 14 items
Labor unions 14 items
Medical care 14 items
Public policy 14 items
Regression analysis 14 items
Seasonal variations (Economics) 14 items
Unconventional monetary policy 14 items
fiscal multipliers 14 items
identification 14 items
innovation 14 items
migration 14 items
time-consistency 14 items
Aggregate risk 13 items
Banks and banking - History 13 items
Banks and banking - Japan 13 items
Bayesian statistical decision theory 13 items
Credit scoring systems 13 items
Credit unions 13 items
Discount 13 items
Entrepreneurship 13 items
Flow of funds 13 items
Geography 13 items
Housing boom 13 items
Industrial location 13 items
Information 13 items
Insurance, Health 13 items
Interbank market 13 items
Retail trade 13 items
Stocks - Rate of return 13 items
Structural VAR 13 items
Swaps (Finance) 13 items
credit constraints 13 items
credit spreads 13 items
deficit 13 items
institutional design 13 items
political frictions 13 items
technological innovations 13 items
technology diffusion 13 items
Asymmetric loss function 12 items
Basel III 12 items
Business cycles - Econometric models 12 items
Community banks 12 items
Country Risk 12 items
Deficit financing 12 items
Displaced workers 12 items
Economic history 12 items
Electronic funds transfers 12 items
Finance, Public 12 items
Financial literacy 12 items
Great Depression 12 items
Immigration 12 items
Indexation (Economics) 12 items
Industrial capacity 12 items
Infrastructure (Economics) 12 items
Markov-switching 12 items
Medical care, Cost of 12 items
Medicare 12 items
Microeconomics 12 items
Monetary policy implementation 12 items
Mortgages and credit 12 items
Municipal finance 12 items
Nowcasting 12 items
Over-the-counter markets 12 items
Search and matching 12 items
Spillovers 12 items
Student loans 12 items
Symmetric loss function 12 items
Taylor rule 12 items
consumer spending 12 items
convergence 12 items
event study 12 items
financial distress 12 items
intermediation 12 items
lenders of last resort 12 items
pandemics 12 items
structural breaks 12 items
Accounting 11 items
Australia 11 items
Bank notes 11 items
CARES Act 11 items
Climate-related risk 11 items
Credit risk 11 items
Debit cards 11 items
Discrimination in consumer credit 11 items
Dividends 11 items
Federal Reserve District, 7th 11 items
GDP growth 11 items
Gambling industry 11 items
Group of Seven countries 11 items
Homeownership 11 items
Investments, Foreign - United States 11 items
Labor force participation 11 items
Money market 11 items
Monopolistic competition 11 items
Property tax 11 items
R&D 11 items
Redistribution 11 items
Repo 11 items
Stablecoins 11 items
Stress tests 11 items
Terrorism 11 items
Urban economics 11 items
consumer payments 11 items
financial development 11 items
higher education 11 items
inference 11 items
intellectual property rights 11 items
mortgage defaults 11 items
population dynamics 11 items
real estate 11 items
small business lending 11 items
Amenities 10 items
Bank liquidity 10 items
Beveridge curve 10 items
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