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Discussion Paper
Information lags and the interest rate as a proximate monetary policy target
Waud, Roger N. (1975)
Special Studies Papers , Paper 67

Discussion Paper
How Has COVID-19 Affected Banking System Vulnerability?
Fringuellotti, Fulvia; Eisenbach, Thomas M.; Duarte, Fernando M.; Kovner, Anna; Blickle, Kristian S.; Crosignani, Matteo (2020-11-16)
The COVID-19 pandemic has led to significant changes in banks’ balance sheets. To understand how these changes have affected the stability of the U.S. banking system, we provide an update of four analytical models that aim to capture different aspects of banking system vulnerability.
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20201116

Discussion Paper
The New York Fed DSGE Model Forecast— September 2023
Del Negro, Marco; Gundam, Pranay; Lee, Donggyu; Nallamotu, Ramya; Pacula, Brian (2023-09-22)
This post presents an update of the economic forecasts generated by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model. We describe very briefly our forecast and its change since June 2023. As usual, we wish to remind our readers that the DSGE model forecast is not an official New York Fed forecast, but only an input to the Research staff’s overall forecasting process. For more information about the model and variables discussed here, see our DSGE model Q & A.
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20230922

Discussion Paper
The Persistent Urban Shortfall in Leisure and Hospitality Employment
Murray, Seth; Chapuis, Brendan J.; Price, Brendan M. (2023-07-28)
As a high-contact service sector with limited capacity for remote work, the US leisure and hospitality sector—which includes restaurants, bars, hotels, museums, and movie theaters—was hit particularly hard by the COVID-19 pandemic. In the first two months of the pandemic, leisure and hospitality lost over 8 million jobs, nearly half its employment (Figure 1, solid red line).
FEDS Notes , Paper 2023-07-28-1

Discussion Paper
Everything You Wanted to Know about the Tri-Party Repo Market, but Didn't Know to Ask
Copeland, Adam; Martin, Antoine; Brickler, Lucinda (2011-04-11)
The tri-party repo market is a large and important market where securities dealers find short-term funding for a substantial portion of their own and their clients’ assets. The Task Force on Tri-Party Repo Infrastructure (Task Force) noted in its report that “(a)t several points during the financial crisis of 2007-2009, the tri-party repo market took on particular importance in relation to the failures and near-failures of Countrywide Securities, Bear Stearns, and Lehman Brothers.” In this post, we provide an overview of this market and discuss several reforms currently under way ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20110411

Discussion Paper
Falling Oil Prices and Global Saving
Klitgaard, Thomas; Russo, Patrick (2015-06-24)
The rise in oil prices from near $30 per barrel in 2000 to around $110 per barrel in mid-2014 was a dramatic reallocation of global income to oil producers. So what did oil producers do with this bounty? Trade data show that they spent about half of the increase in total export revenues on imports and the other half to buy foreign assets. The drop in oil prices will unwind this process. Oil-importing countries will gain from lower oil bills, but they will also see a decline in their exports to oil-producing countries and in purchases of their assets by investors in these countries. Indeed, ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20150624

Discussion Paper
What Is Corporate Bond Market Distress?
Boyarchenko, Nina; Crump, Richard K.; Kovner, Anna; Shachar, Or (2022-06-29)
Corporate bonds are a key source of funding for U.S. non-financial corporations and a key investment security for insurance companies, pension funds, and mutual funds. Distress in the corporate bond market can thus both impair access to credit for corporate borrowers and reduce investment opportunities for key financial sub-sectors. In a February 2021 Liberty Street Economics post, we introduced a unified measure of corporate bond market distress, the Corporate Bond Market Distress Index (CMDI), then followed up in early June 2022 with a look at how corporate bond market functioning evolved ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20220629

Discussion Paper
Historically Low Delinquency Rates Coming to an End
Haughwout, Andrew F.; Lee, Donghoon; Mangrum, Daniel; Scally, Joelle; Van der Klaauw, Wilbert (2022-08-02)
Total household debt increased by $312 billion during the second quarter of 2022, and balances are now more than $2 trillion higher than they were in the fourth quarter of 2019, just before the COVID-19 pandemic recession, according to the Quarterly Report on Household Debt and Credit from the New York Fed’s Center for Microeconomic Data. All debt types saw sizable increases, with the exception of student loans. Mortgage balances were the biggest driver of the overall increase, climbing $207 billion since the first quarter of 2022. Credit card balances saw a $46 billion increase since the ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20220802

Discussion Paper
Why Cash Transfers Are Good Policy in the COVID-19 Pandemic
Braun, R. Anton; Ikeda, Daisuke (2020-05-14)
The COVID-19 pandemic has had an exceptionally large and negative impact on economic activity around the world. We show that cash transfers can be a useful policy tool during a pandemic. Cash transfers mitigate consumption inequality induced by the pandemic and provide incentives to individuals who are most negatively affected by lockdown policies to adhere to them.
Policy Hub , Paper 2020-4

Discussion Paper
The Federal Reserve's Liquidity Backstops to the Municipal Bond Market during the COVID-19 Pandemic
Wei, Bin; Yue, Vivian Z. (2020-05-28)
The COVID-19 pandemic has caused tremendous hardship all over the world. In response, the Federal Reserve has moved quickly and aggressively to support the economy in the United States. In this article, we present some initial evidence for the effectiveness of some of the facilities in calming the municipal bond market, particularly the short-term variable-rate demand obligation (VRDO) market. We discuss the important role of liquidity backstops in mitigating runs and stabilizing financial markets in general based on insights from our study on the runs on VRDO and auction-rate securities ...
Policy Hub , Paper 2020-5

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