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Working Paper
First to \"Read\" the News: New Analytics and Algorithmic Trading
Exploiting a unique identification strategy based on inaccurate news analytics, we document a causal effect of news analytics on the market irrespective of the informational content of the news. We show that news analytics speed up the stock price and trading volume response to articles, but reduce liquidity. Inaccurate news analytics lead to small price distortions that are corrected quickly. The market impact of news analytics is greatest for press releases, which are timelier and easier to interpret algorithmically. Furthermore, we provide evidence that high frequency traders rely on the ...
Working Paper
Biased Shorts: Short sellers’ Disposition Effect and Limits to Arbitrage
We investigate whether short sellers are subject to the disposition effect using a novel dataset that allows to identify the closing of short positions. Consistent with the disposition effect, short sellers are more likely to close a position the higher their capital gains. Furthermore, stocks with high short sale capital gains experience negative returns, suggesting that their disposition effect has an effect on stock prices. A trading strategy based on this finding achieves significant three-factor alphas. Overall, short sellers? behavioral biases limit their ability to arbitrage away the ...
Working Paper
Fundamental Arbitrage under the Microscope: Evidence from Detailed Hedge Fund Transaction Data
We exploit detailed transaction and position data for a sample of long-short equity hedge funds to study the trading activity of fundamental investors. We find that hedge funds exhibit skill in opening positions, but that they close their positions too early, thereby forgoing about a third of the trades’ potential profitability. We explain this behavior with the limits of arbitrage: hedge funds close positions early in order to reallocate their capital to more profitable investments and/or to accommodate tightened financial constraints. Consistent with this view, we document that hedge ...
Working Paper
Are Euro-Area Corporate Bond Markets Irrelevant? The Effect of Bond Market Access on Investment
We compare how bond market access affects firms? investment decisions in the United States and the euro area. Having a bond rating enables US corporations to invest more and undertake more acquisitions. In contrast, in the euro area, bond ratings have no effect on investment decisions. Similarly, firms with bond ratings have higher leverage in the United States, but not in the euro area. This difference may be due to euro-area firms getting sufficient financing from banks. Consistent with this explanation, euro-area bond ratings became more relevant for investment after the banking crisis of ...
Working Paper
Banks' Equity Stakes and Lending : Evidence from a Tax Reform
Several papers find a positive association between a bank's equity stake in a borrowing firm and lending to that firm. While such a positive cross-sectional correlation may be due to equity stakes benefiting lending, it may also be driven by endogeneity. To distinguish the two, we study a German tax reform that permitted banks to sell their equity stakes tax-free. After the reform, many banks sold their equity stakes, but did not reduce lending to the firms. Thus, our findings suggest that the prior evidence cannot be interpreted causally and that banks? equity stakes are immaterial for their ...
Working Paper
Cash Windfalls and Acquisitions
This article studies the effect of cash windfalls on the acquisition policy of companies. As identification I use a German tax reform that permitted firms to sell their equity stakes tax-free. Companies that could realize a cash windfall by selling equity stakes see an increase in the probability of acquiring another company by 19 percent. I find that these additional acquisitions destroy firm value. Following the tax reform, affected firms experience a decrease of 1.2 percentage points in acquisition announcement returns. These effects are stronger for larger cash windfalls. My findings are ...
Working Paper
Why Do Short Sellers Like Qualitative News?
Short sellers trade more on days with qualitative news--i.e. news containing fewer numbers. We show that this behavior is not informationally motivated but can be explained by short sellers exploiting higher liquidity on such days. We document that liquidity and noise trading increase in the presence of qualitative news thus enabling short sellers to better disguise their informed trades. Natural experiments support our findings. For example, qualitative news has a bigger effect on short sellers' trading after a decrease in liquidity following a stock's deletion from S&P 500 and a lower ...
Discussion Paper
The International Role of the U.S. Dollar
For most of the last century, the preeminent role of the U.S. dollar in the global economy has been supported by the size and strength of the U.S. economy, its stability and openness to trade and capital flows, and strong property rights and the rule of law. As a result, the depth and liquidity of U.S. financial markets is unmatched, and there is a large supply of extremely safe dollar-denominated assets.
Discussion Paper
Revisions to the Federal Reserve Dollar Indexes
This note details the construction of the foreign exchange rate indexes and describes the motives for the changes to the methodology.