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Working Paper
How Much Will the Belt and Road Initiative Reduce Trade Costs?
Ruta, Michele; de Soyres, Francois; Murray, Siobhan; Mulabdic, Alen; Rocha, Nadia (2020-02-26)
This paper studies the impact of transport infrastructure projects of the Belt and Road Initiative on shipment times and trade costs. Based on a new data on completed and planned Belt and Road transport projects, Geographic Information System analysis is used to estimate shipment times before and after the Belt and Road Initiative. Two sets of data are computed to address different research questions: a global database based on an analysis of 1,000 cities in 191 countries and 47 sectors and a regional database that focuses on more granular information (1,818 cities) for Belt and Road ...
International Finance Discussion Papers , Paper 1274

Discussion Paper
Increasing Business Cycles Synchronization: The Role of Global Value Chains, Market Power and Extensive Margin Adjustments
de Soyres, Francois; Gaillard, Alexandre (2019-12-13)
In this note, based on de Soyres and Gaillard (2019a, 2019b), we argue that the propagation of shocks across countries through trade linkages is large and propose the first model that accounts for such propagation with a magnitude in line with the data.
FEDS Notes , Paper 2019-12-13-3

From Partner to Rival: Understanding China’s Technological Rise through Patent Data
de Soyres, Francois; Fisgin, Ece; Santacreu, Ana Maria (2025-04-03)
A new measure of patent similarity shows China shifting its international patents toward technology-intensive industries traditionally dominated by developed nations.
On the Economy

Discussion Paper
Fiscal policy and excess inflation during Covid-19: a cross-country view
de Soyres, Francois; Santacreu, Ana Maria; Young, Henry L. (2022-07-15)
The recent surge in inflation in many countries around the world and the fiscal stimulus provided in the face of the COVID-19 pandemic has renewed interest in analyzing the potential role of large fiscal spending as a driver of price increases. In this note, we examine how fiscal support impacted the balance between supply and demand across countries during the COVID-19 crisis.
FEDS Notes , Paper 2022-07-15-1

Working Paper
Measuring Geopolitical Fragmentation: Implications for Trade, Financial Flows, and Economic Policy
Airaudo, Florencia; de Soyres, Francois; Richards, Keith; Santacreu, Ana Maria (2025-03-31)
Recent geopolitical tensions have revived interest in understanding the economic consequences of geopolitical fragmentation. Using bilateral trade flows, portfolio investment data, and detailed records of economic policy interventions, we revisit widely-used geopolitical distance metrics, specifically the Ideal Point Distance (IPD) derived from United Nations General Assembly voting. We document substantial variability in measured fragmentation, driven significantly by methodological choices related to sample periods and vote categories, especially in the wake of Russia’s 2022 invasion of ...
Working Papers , Paper 2025-006

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