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Men’s Falling Labor Force Participation across Generations
The labor force participation rate for prime-age men has been declining for decades. About 14% of millennial males at age 25 are not in the labor force, compared with 7% of baby boomer males when they were that age. This generational gap declines substantially as groups approach middle age; the decline reflects that younger millennials enrolled in postsecondary education at higher rates and moved into the workforce later than prior generations. The convergence for millennial males suggests that the trend of men’s higher nonparticipation rates may slow in the future.
Will a Cooler Labor Market Slow Supercore Inflation?
Inflation has declined substantially since its peak in June 2022. This largely reflects lower energy prices and more moderate price increases for core goods, as global supply chain constraints have eased and consumers have resumed more normal spending patterns, shifting back from goods toward services. In contrast, inflation for core services continues to rise, in part due to lingering pandemic-related increases in shelter prices that are still affecting official inflation statistics (Lansing, Oliveira, and Shapiro 2022). However, because new rents are rising more slowly, policymakers expect ...
Falling College Wage Premiums by Race and Ethnicity
Workers with a college degree typically earn substantially more than workers with less education. This so-called college wage premium increased for several decades, but it has been flat to down in recent years and declined notably since the pandemic. Analysis indicates that this reflects an acceleration of wage gains for high school graduates rather than a slowdown for college graduates. This pattern is most evident for workers in racial and ethnic groups other than White, possibly reflecting an unusually tight labor market that may have altered their college attendance decisions.