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Finance and growth: theory and new evidence
This paper describes a feedback effect between real and financial development. The paper presents a new variable, which we call the cost of financial intermediation, through which the feedback between finance and growth operates. The theoretical part of the paper describes how specialization of financial intermediaries leads to such a feedback effect. The main result of this feedback is that differences in productivity across countries are amplified by financial intermediation. The empirical part of the paper uses U.S. cross-state data from banks' income statements to measure the cost of ...
Informational overshooting, booms and crashes
This paper offers an informational explanation to stock markets' booms and crashes. This explanation builds on the idea of 'informational overshooting': if market fundamentals change for an unknown period of time, prices experience a boom, which ends in a crash, due to informational dynamics. The paper then shows that 'informational overshooting' occurs when the market expands to a new capacity, which is unknown until it is reached. The paper presents two examples for such expansions, one due to increased productivity and one due to entry of new investors to the stock market. One implication ...