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Author:Yi, Kei-Mu 

Working Paper
A tale of two states: Maharashtra and West Bengal

In this paper the authors study the economic evolution between 1960 and 1995 of two states in India ? Maharashtra and West Bengal. In 1960, West Bengal?s per capita income exceeded that of Maharashtra. By 1995, it had fallen to just 69 percent of Maharashtra?s per capita income. The authors employ a "wedge" methodology based on the first order conditions of a multi-sector neoclassical growth model to ascertain the sources of the divergent economic performances. Their diagnostic analysis reveals that a large part of West Bengal?s development woes can be attributed to: (a) low sectoral ...
Working Papers , Paper 06-16

Dallas Fed Mobility and Engagement Index Gives Insight into COVID-19’s Economic Impact

To gain insight into the economic impact of the pandemic, we developed an index of mobility and engagement, based on geolocation data collected from a large sample of mobile devices.
Dallas Fed Economics

Journal Article
Asia crisis postmortem: where did the money go and did the United States benefit?

The Asia crisis was originally expected to affect the U.S. economy adversely, mainly through reduced exports to, and increased imports from, the crisis countries. However, U.S. GDP growth in 1998, at 4.3 percent, was surprisingly strong. This article examines the effect of the crisis on the U.S. economy, using a quantitative approach that focuses on capital outflows from Asia. It finds that banks were the primary mechanism by which the funds left Asia, and that these funds did not flow directly to the United States. Rather, they went first to offshore banking centers and then to European ...
Economic Policy Review , Issue Sep , Pages 51-70

Journal Article
Vertical specialization and the changing nature of world trade

A major feature of globalization has been the enormous increase in international flows of goods and services: countries are now trading much more with each other. In this article, the authors demonstrate the greater role vertical specialization is playing in these increased flows. Vertical specialization occurs when a country uses imported intermediate parts to create a good it later exports--that is, the country links sequentially with other countries to produce a final good. Deriving evidence from four case studies as well as OECD input-output tables, the authors reveal that vertical ...
Economic Policy Review , Volume 4 , Issue Jun , Pages 79-99

Discussion Paper
Real Interest Rates over the Long Run

Long-term interest rates have a crucial influence on virtually all major financial decisions faced by households, businesses and governments. This paper reviews several decades of data on long-term rates internationally, explores several factors that determine them and discusses implications of this evidence. {{p}} The data indicate declining long-term rates since the 1980s, converging internationally at very low levels. This implies that the rate decline is not due to the Great Recession or to the early 2000s downturn. It further suggests a higher likelihood than before of hitting the zero ...
Economic Policy Paper , Paper 16-10

Working Paper
Can the standard international business cycle model explain the relation between trade and comovement?

Recent empirical research finds that pairs of countries with stronger trade linkages tend to have more highly correlated business cycles. We assess whether the standard international business cycle framework can replicate this intuitive result. We employ a three-country model with transportation costs. We simulate the effects of increased goods market integration under two asset market structures: complete markets and international financial autarky. Our main finding is that under both asset market structures the model can generate stronger correlations for pairs of countries that trade more, ...
Working Papers , Paper 05-3

Working Paper
Vertical specialization and the border effect puzzle

A large body of empirical research finds that a pair of regions within a country tends to trade 10 to 20 times as much as an otherwise identical pair of regions across countries. In the context of the standard trade models, the large ?border effect? is problematic, because it is consistent only with high elasticities of substitution between goods and/or high unobserved national border barriers. The author proposes a resolution to this puzzle based on vertical specialization, which occurs when regions or countries specialize only in particular stages of a good?s production sequence. The author ...
Working Papers , Paper 05-24

Working Paper
Can multi-stage production explain the home bias in trade?

A large empirical literature finds that there is too little international trade, and too much intra-national trade to be rationalized by observed international trade costs such as tariffs and transport costs. The literature uses frameworks in which goods are assumed to be produced in just one stage. This paper investigates whether the multi-stage nature of production helps explain the home bias in trade. The author shows that multi-stage production magnifies the effects of trade costs. He then calibrates a multi-stage production model to the U.S. and Canada. He solves the model with measures ...
Working Papers , Paper 08-12

Journal Article
China's emergence as a manufacturing juggernaut: Is it overstated?

China's emergence as a manufacturing juggernaut selling so many goods to so many countries has attracted enormous attention from academics, policymakers, and the media. In this article, Behzad Kianian and Kei-Mu Yi put China's manufacturing performance into a broader context. They emphasize two key themes: The wages of China's manufacturing workers are rising rapidly; and China's production of export goods relies heavily on imported inputs and the final exported goods face large mark-ups in their destination markets. The first theme implies that China will lose global market share in some ...
Business Review , Issue Q4 , Pages 10-21

Journal Article
Curbing unemployment in Europe: are there lessons from Ireland and the Netherlands?

Since the mid-1980s, unemployment rates in Ireland and the Netherlands have plummeted, while the average rate for the European Union has maintained its longtime high level. Ambitious labor market reforms_including wage moderation and the tightening of unemployment benefits_have helped to bring the Irish and Dutch rates down. Other European countries would benefit from adopting similar reforms, but they are unlikely to see the same dramatic improvement in their unemployment numbers.
Current Issues in Economics and Finance , Volume 7 , Issue May

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