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Author:Wynne, Mark A. 

Journal Article
New economy, new recession

Southwest Economy , Issue Mar , Pages 11-16

Working Paper
Estimating the Natural Rate of Interest in an Open Economy

The concept of the natural or equilibrium rate of interest has attracted a lot of attention from monetary policymakers in recent years. Most attempts to estimate the natural rate use a closed economy framework. We argue that in the face of greater integration of global product and capital markets, an open economy framework is more appropriate. We provide some initial estimates of the natural rate for the United States and Japan in a two-country framework. Our identifying assumptions include a close relationship between the time-varying natural rate of interest and the low-frequency ...
Globalization Institute Working Papers , Paper 316

Working Paper
Bayesian estimation of NOEM models: identification and inference in small samples

This paper studies the (potential) weak identification of these relationships in the context of a fully specified structural model using Bayesian estimation techniques. We trace the problems to sample size, rather than misspecification bias. We conclude that standard macroeconomic time series with a coverage of less than forty years are subject to potentially serious identification issues, and also to model selection errors. We recommend estimation with simulated data prior to bringing the model to the actual data as a way of detecting parameters that are susceptible to weak identification in ...
Globalization Institute Working Papers , Paper 105

Journal Article
The sluggish recovery from the Great Recession: why there is no ā€˜Vā€™ rebound this time

The Great Recession of 2008?09 was by far the most severe United States economic downturn since the Great Depression of the 1930s. Real gross domestic product (GDP), the most comprehensive measure of U.S. economic activity, topped out in fourth quarter 2007 and has yet to approach that peak. Employment totaled just below 138 million jobs in January 2008 and, as of July 2011, was still nearly 5 percent below its precrisis level.
Economic Letter , Volume 6

Global Perspectives: John B. Taylor on the Taylor Rule, Accommodative Policy, Low Interest Rates and Expanded Central Bank Mandates

Taylor and Dallas Fed President Robert S. Kaplan discussed the origins of the Taylor Rule, the dangers of holding monetary policy too accommodative for too long, the distributional effects of low interest rates and expanded central bank mandates.
Dallas Fed Economics

Global Perspectives: Ruth J. Simmons on Trailblazing and Education

Simmons and Dallas Fed President Rob Kaplan discussed her decision to become an educator, her experience in academia and the importance of educational opportunity.
Dallas Fed Economics

Working Paper
Fiscal policy in more general equilibrium

Working Papers , Paper 9407

Journal Article
Is there an output-inflation trade-off?

Southwest Economy , Issue Aug , Pages 1-4

Journal Article
Will China ever become as rich as the U.S.?

Twenty years ago, a visitor to Beijing would have been struck by the bicycle?s popularity as a form of mass transportation. Today, auto congestion and pollution on the increasingly clogged roads of China?s capital city are pervasive features. In a little more than three decades, China has transformed itself from a largely closed agrarian society to an urban exporting nation commonly viewed as the workshop of the world. ; At current growth rates, China will be the world?s largest economy sometime in the next decade. But will it ever be the richest? Though providing a definitive answer is ...
Economic Letter , Volume 6

Journal Article
The euro cash changeover

Southwest Economy , Issue Mar , Pages 1-5

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