Measurement bias in the HICP: what do we know and what do we need to know?
The Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) is the primary measure of inflation in the euro area, and plays a central role in the policy deliberations of the European Central Bank (ECB). The ECB defines its Treaty mandate of price stability as "?a year-on-year increase in the Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) for the euro area of below 2 percent [?] to be maintained over the medium term." Among the rationales given for defining price stability as prevailing at some positive measured inflation rate is the possibility that the HICP as published incorporates measurement errors of one ...
Ties That Bind: Estimating the Natural Rate of Interest for Small Open Economies
This paper estimates the natural rate of interest for six small open economies (Australia, Canada, South Korea, Sweden, Switzerland and the U.K.) with a structural New Keynesian model using Bayesian techniques. Our empirical analysis establishes the following four main findings: First, we show that the open economy framework provides a better fit of the data than its closed economy counterpart for the six countries we investigate. Second, we also show that, in all six countries, a Taylor (1993)-type monetary policy rule that tracks the Wicksellian short-term natural rate fits the data better ...
The aggregate effects of temporary government purchases
Global Perspectives: Richard Clarida on U.S. Monetary Policy
Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Richard Clarida discusses a range of topics, including the challenges facing monetary policymakers, the U.S. fiscal situation and the global role of the dollar.
Central bank transparency anchors inflation expectations
A high statistical correlation can be found between the level of policy transparency among central banks and the anchoring of inflation expectations.
Shock-Dependent Exchange Rate Pass-Through: Evidence Based on a Narrative Sign Approach
This paper studies shock-dependent exchange rate pass-through for Japan with a Bayesian structural vector autoregression model. We identify the shocks by complementing the traditional sign and zero restrictions with narrative sign restrictions related to the Plaza Accord. We find that the narrative sign restrictions are highly informative, and substantially sharpen and even change the inferences of the structural vector autoregression model originally identified with only the traditional sign and zero restrictions. We show that there is a significant variation in the exchange rate ...
Does the CPI overstate increases in the cost of living?
Does aggregate output have a unit root?