China Slowdown: Little Headwind for Texas
The much-heralded slowdown of growth in China presents a limited challenge to Texas? growth because of the state?s relatively small direct trade exposure.
Globalization and monetary policy
Sticky prices: what is the evidence?
This article reviews the idea that sticky prices are important for understanding business cycles. Mark Wynne begins with a critical survey of the literature documenting the stylized facts about prices in individual markets. His first point is that there is remarkably little evidence that the actual transactions prices of most products are, in fact, sticky. Such evidence as there is to support the notion of widespread price stickiness is heavily biased toward low-tech products that account for a very small fraction of total output and is a thin reed on which to base a theory of business ...
Diversification and specialization of U.S. states
This paper documents the evolution of the international relationships of individual U.S. states along three dimensions: trade, migration, and finance. We examine how specialized or diversified state economies differ in terms of the products they export and with whom they trade, the origins of the immigrants who live in the state, and the origins of the foreign banks operating in the state. We show that states that are diversified along one of these dimensions are often quite specialized along others. New York is?perhaps, not surprisingly?the most diversified state in terms of global linkages.
Global, National Business Cycles and Energy Explain Texas Metro Growth
A mix of global, national and state-specific shocks help drive employment fluctuations between U.S. states. Econometric modeling shows such differences among metropolitan areas also reflect a mix of shocks. Texas cities strongly tied to oil and gas activity appear more affected by energy-sector shocks than other metros in the state.
Ties That Bind: Estimating the Natural Rate of Interest for Small Open Economies
This paper estimates the natural interest rate for six small open economies (Australia, Canada, South Korea, Sweden, Switzerland and the U.K.) with a structural New Keynesian model using Bayesian techniques. Our empirical analysis establishes the following four novel findings: First, we show that the open-economy framework provides a better fit of the data than its closed-economy counterpart for the six countries we investigate. Second, we also show that, in all six countries, a monetary policy rule in which the domestic real policy rate tracks the Wicksellian domestic short-term natural rate ...
Inequality, inflation, and central bank independence
What can account for the different contemporaneous inflation experiences of various countries, and of the same country over time? We present an analysis of the determination of inflation from a political economy perspective. We document a positive correlation between income inequality and inflation and then present a theory of the determination of inflation outcomes in democratic societies that illustrates how greater inequality leads to greater inflation, owing to a desire by voters for wealth redistribution. We conclude by showing that democracies with more independent central banks tend to ...
Central bank communications: a case study
Over the past twenty five years, central bank communications have undergone a major revolution. Central banks that previously shrouded themselves in mystery now embrace social media to get their message out to the widest audience. The Federal Reserve System has not always been at the forefront of these changes, but the volume of information about monetary policy that the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) now releases dwarfs what it was releasing a quarter century ago. In this paper we focus on just one channel of FOMC communications, the post-meeting statement. We document how it has ...
The aggregate effects of temporary government purchases