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Forward-Looking Monetary Policy and the Transmission of Conventional Monetary Policy Shocks
Standard structural VAR models and estimation using Romer and Romer (2004) monetary policy shocks show that, in samples after the 1980s, a contractionary conventional monetary policy shock generates smaller and sometimes perversely-signed impulse responses compared to earlier samples. Using insights from the central bank information effects literature, we show that the analyses producing these results suffer from an omitted variables problem related to forward-looking information emanating from Federal Reserve forecasts. Transmission of conventional monetary policy shocks takes on the ...
A Unified Measure of Fed Monetary Policy Shocks
Identification of Fed monetary policy shocks is complex, in light of the distinct policymaking regimes before, during, and after the ZLB period of December 2008 to December 2015. We develop a heteroscedasticity-based partial least squares approach, combined with Fama-MacBeth style cross-section regressions, to identify a US monetary policy shock series that usefully bridges periods of conventional and unconventional policymaking and is effectively devoid of the central bank information effect. Our series has moderately high correlation with the shocks identified by Nakamura and Steinsson ...