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Journal Article
Relative comparisons and economics: empirical evidence
This Letter reviews the empirical evidence on the extent to which individuals' sense of well-being or happiness is related to metrics of the well-being of others.
Working Paper
Fiscal spending multipliers: evidence from the 2009 American Recovery and Reinvestment Act
This paper estimates the ?jobs multiplier? of fiscal spending using the state-level allocations of federal stimulus funds from the 2009 American Recovery and Reinvestment Act (ARRA). Specifically, I estimate the relationship between state-level federal ARRA spending and state employment outcomes from the time the Act was passed (February 2009) through the latest month of data (currently May 2010). Because actual state allocations of stimulus spending may be endogenous with respect to state economic outcomes, I instrument for stimulus spending using the state allocations that were anticipated ...
Journal Article
Is the recent productivity boom over?
Productivity growth has been quite strong over the past 2 years, despite a drop in the second quarter of 2010. Many analysts believe that productivity growth must slow sharply in order for the labor market to recover robustly. However, looking at the observable factors underlying recent productivity growth and the patterns of productivity over past recessions and recoveries, a sharp slowdown appears unlikely. ; This Economic Letter examines the risks to this forecast, first looking at how productivity growth has fared in past recessions and recoveries. Then it considers where recent gains ...
Journal Article
Fiscal headwinds: Is the other shoe about to drop?
Federal fiscal policy during the recession was abnormally expansionary by historical standards. However, over the past 2 years it has become unusually contractionary as a result of several deficit reduction measures passed by Congress. During the next three years, we estimate that federal budgetary policy could restrain economic growth by as much as 1 percentage point annually beyond the normal fiscal drag that occurs during recoveries.
Journal Article
Research on the effects of fiscal stimulus: symposium summary
On May 9, 2008, just as the first rebate payments were starting to land in taxpayers' checking accounts, the Center for the Study of Innovation and Productivity (CSIP) hosted a symposium on "Research on the Effects of Fiscal Stimulus." The symposium featured four of the foremost economic experts on fiscal policy who spoke about countercyclical fiscal policy and the likely impact of the most recent stimulus package. This Economic Letter summarizes their remarks. ; Presentations are listed at the end, and three of the four are available at http://www.frbsf.org/csip/index.php.
Working Paper
IT and beyond: the contribution of heterogeneous capital to productivity
This paper explores the relationship between capital composition and productivity using a unique and remarkably detailed data set on firm-level investment in the U.S. Using cross-sectional and longitudinal regressions, I find that several capital types, including computers, communications equipment, and software, are associated with current and subsequent years? productivity. The implied marginal products are derived and compared to official data on rental prices; substantial differences exist for a number of key capital types. I also provide evidence of complementaries and substitutabilities ...
Journal Article
Productivity in the Twelfth District
Journal Article
Are we running out of new ideas? a look at patents and R&D
Journal Article
Residual seasonality and monetary policy
Much recent discussion has suggested that the official real GDP data are inadequately adjusted for recurring seasonal fluctuations. A similar pattern of insufficient seasonal adjustment also affects the published data for a key measure of price inflation. Still, such residual seasonality in the published output and inflation statistics is unlikely to mislead Federal Reserve policymakers or adversely affect the setting of monetary policy.
Journal Article
Fueling road spending with federal stimulus
Highway spending in the United States between 2008 and 2011 was flat, despite the serious need for improvements and the big boost to state highway funds from the Recovery Act of 2009. A comparison of how much different states received and spent shows that these federal grants actually boosted highway spending substantially. However, this was offset by pressures to reduce state highway spending due to plummeting tax revenues. In fact, analysis suggests national highway spending would have fallen roughly 20% over this period without federal highway grants from the Recovery Act.