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Exploring the use of anonymized consumer credit information to estimate economic conditions: an application of big data
The emergence of high-frequency administrative data and other big data offers an opportunity for improvements to economic forecasting models. This paper considers the potential advantages and limitations of using information contained in anonymized consumer credit reports for improving estimates of current and future economic conditions for various geographic areas and demographic markets. Aggregate consumer credit information is found to be correlated with macroeconomic variables such as gross domestic product, retail sales, and employment and can serve as leading indicators such that lagged ...
Forecasting Consumption Spending Using Credit Bureau Data
This paper considers whether the inclusion of information contained in consumer credit reports might improve the predictive accuracy of forecasting models for consumption spending. To investigate the usefulness of aggregate consumer credit information in forecasting consumption spending, this paper sets up a baseline forecasting model. Based on this model, a simulated real-time, out-of-sample exercise is conducted to forecast one-quarter ahead consumption spending. The exercise is run again after the addition of credit bureau variables to the model. Finally, a comparison is made to test ...
Consumers’ use of prepaid cards: a transaction-based analysis
The Payment Cards Center of the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia and the Center for Financial Services Innovation conducted this research project using transaction-level data provided by Meta Payment Systems in an effort to develop a better understanding of how consumers use prepaid cards by examining their transaction behavior and the issuer revenue and cardholder costs generated by those transactions.
Consumer Credit Card Payment Deferrals During the COVID-19 Pandemic
In response to the economic hardships stemming from COVID-19, many U.S. card-issuing banks offered measures to assist their customers who were financially affected by the pandemic. Unlike previous disaster assistance programs that were typically short in duration and localized, the COVID-19 pandemic affected millions of consumers across the country for a protracted period of time and required application of broad-based relief measures. These measures, along with federal and state stimulus and benefit payments, provided some stability to many consumers’ financial circumstances during ...
Meeting the demand for debt relief
Each year, millions of financially distressed consumers in the U.S. face a difficult choice among the debt relief options available to them. This paper describes the options available to borrowers who seek assistance in managing their debts and discusses the information and incentive problems associated with these options. It also reviews the trends that contributed to the breakdown of the repayment framework and the responses to these trends. Among the responses is a reconsideration of the regulatory structure of the debt relief industry. The paper concludes with a discussion of the ...