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Speech
The economy and monetary policy: follow the demand
Williams, John C. (2013)
Presentation to The Forecasters Club, New York, New York, February 21, 2013
Speech , Paper 116

Journal Article
The Federal Reserve’s unconventional policies
Williams, John C. (2012)
After the federal funds rate target was lowered to near zero in 2008, the Federal Reserve has used two types of unconventional monetary policies to stimulate the U.S. economy: forward policy guidance and large-scale asset purchases. These tools have been effective in pushing down longer-term Treasury yields and boosting other asset prices, thereby lifting spending and the economy. This Letter is adapted from a presentation by the president and CEO of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco at the University of California, Irvine, on November 5, 2012.
FRBSF Economic Letter

Report
Transforming financial services. Banking supervision’s Tracy Basinger explains why the intersection of finance and technology–fintech–is a matter of great importance and interest to the Fed
Williams, John C.; Basinger, Tracy (2015)
Innovations in technology are transforming relationships between the Fed, the banks we supervise, and their customers. In our 2015 annual report, What We've Learned?and why it matters, we explain how the Fed is poised to evolve alongside fintech innovations.
Annual Report

Speech
Restoring Balance
Williams, John C. (2022-02-18)
Remarks at New Jersey City University (delivered via videoconference).
Speech

Working Paper
Learning and shifts in long-run productivity growth
Williams, John C.; Laubach, Thomas; Edge, Rochelle M. (2004)
Shifts in the long-run rate of productivity growth--such as those experienced by the U.S. economy in the 1970s and 1990s--are difficult, in real time, to distinguish from transitory fluctuations. In this paper, we analyze the evolution of forecasts of long-run productivity growth during the 1970s and 1990s and examine in the context of a dynamic general equilibrium model the consequences of gradual real-time learning on the responses to shifts in the long-run productivity growth rate. We find that a simple updating rule based on an estimated Kalman filter model using real-time data describes ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 2004-21

Speech
Risk management and macroprudential supervisory policies
Williams, John C. (2011)
Welcoming Remarks to the Symposium on Asian Banking and Finance, Federal Reserve Bank of Sanfrancisco, September 9, 2011
Speech , Paper 91

Conference Paper
Welfare-maximizing monetary policy under parameter uncertainty
Williams, John C.; Laubach, Thomas; Edge, Rochelle M. (2007)
This paper examines welfare-maximizing monetary policy in an estimated dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model of the U.S. economy where the policymaker faces uncertainty about the true values of model parameters. Uncertainty about parameters describing preferences and technology implies not only uncertainty about the dynamics of the economy. In addition, it implies uncertainty about the model's utility-based welfare criterion and model dynamics but also uncertainty about the "natural" rate of output that the central bank should aim to achieve absent nominal rigidities and the ...
Proceedings

Journal Article
The outlook and monetary policy challenges
Williams, John C. (2012)
The pace of economic growth has been frustratingly slow and the recovery has lost momentum in recent months. The economy is weighed down by the ongoing European sovereign debt crisis and fiscal tightening in our own country. In these circumstances, it is essential that the Federal Reserve provide sufficient monetary accommodation to keep our economy moving towards the central bank?s maximum employment and price stability mandates. This Letter is adapted from a presentation by the president and CEO of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco to the Idaho, Nevada, and Oregon Bankers ...
FRBSF Economic Letter

Report
Macroeconomic Drivers and the Pricing of Uncertainty, Inflation, and Bonds
Williams, John C.; Mertens, Thomas M.; Bok, Brandyn (2022-04-01)
This paper analyzes a new stylized fact: According to financial market prices, the correlation between uncertainty shocks, as measured by changes in the VIX, and changes in break-even inflation rates has declined and turned negative over the past quarter century. It rationalizes this uncertainty-inflation correlation within a standard New Keynesian model with a lower bound on interest rates combined with a decline in the natural rate of interest. With a lower natural rate, the likelihood of the lower bound binding increased and the effects of uncertainty on the economy became more pronounced. ...
Staff Reports , Paper 1011

Speech
The joys of spring: remarks at the 21st Annual Bronx Bankers Breakfast, Bronx, New York
Williams, John C. (2019-05-10)
Remarks at the 21st Annual Bronx Bankers Breakfast, Bronx, New York.
Speech , Paper 319

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