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Author:Williams, John C. 

Working Paper
A black swan in the money market

At the center of the financial market crisis of 2007-2008 was a highly unusual jump in spreads between the overnight inter-bank lending rate and term London inter-bank offer rates (Libor). Because many private loans are linked to Libor rates, the sharp increase in these spreads raised the cost of borrowing and interfered with monetary policy. The widening spreads became a major focus of the Federal Reserve, which took several actions--including the introduction of a new term auction facility (TAF)--to reduce them. This paper documents these developments and, using a no-arbitrage model of the ...
Working Paper Series , Paper 2008-04

Speech
The economic outlook: the ‘new normal’ is now: remarks at The Economic Club of New York, New York City

Remarks at The Economic Club of New York, New York City.
Speech , Paper 310

Working Paper
Simple rules for monetary policy

What is a good monetary policy rule for stabilizing the economy? In this paper, efficient policy rules are computed using the FRB/US large-scale open-economy macroeconometric model. Simple three-parameter policy rules are found to be very effective at minimizing fluctuations in inflation, output, and interest rates: Increases in rule complexity yield only trivial reductions in aggregate variability. Under rational expectations, efficient policies smooth the interest rate response to shocks and use the feedback from anticipated policy actions to stabilize inflation and output and to moderate ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 1999-12

Journal Article
Economic outlook: moving in the right direction

The economy and the labor market have improved substantially since the Federal Reserve started its current $85 billion monthly asset purchase program last September. However, it will take further gains to demonstrate that the ?substantial improvement? test for ending Fed asset purchases has been met. ; This letter is adapted from a presentation by the president and CEO of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco at the Portland Business Journal?s CFO of the Year Awards Luncheon in Portland, Oregon, on May 16, 2013
FRBSF Economic Letter

Speech
The economic outlook: live long and prosper

Presentation to the Urban Land Institute, San Francisco, California. (President Williams presented similar remarks at the Community Leaders Luncheon in Salt Lake City, Utah on October 1, 2015)
Speech , Paper 155

Speech
No Man Is an Island

Remarks at 2019 Asia Economic Policy Conference, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, San Francisco, California.
Speech , Paper 337

Speech
Welcoming remarks at the Investing in America's Workforce Book Launch Event, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, New York City

Remarks at the Investing in America's Workforce Book Launch Event, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, New York City.
Speech , Paper 300

Working Paper
The Evolution of Macro Models at the Federal Reserve Board

Large-scale macroeconomic models have been used at the Federal Reserve Board for nearly thirty years. After briefly reviewing the first generation of Fed models, which were based on the IS/LM/Phillips curve paradigm, the paper describes the structure and properties of a new set of models. The new models are more explicit in their treatment of expectations formation and household and firm intertemporal decisionmaking. The incorporation of more rigorous theoretical microfoundations is accomplished while maintaining a high standard of goodness of fit. Simulations illustrate the effects of ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 1997-29

Speech
Monetary Policy and the Economic Outlook: A Fine Balancing Act

Presentation to the 54th Annual Economic Forecast Luncheon, Phoenix, Arizona, John C. Williams, President and CEO, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, November 29, 2017.
Speech , Paper 185

Speech
Longview: The Economic Outlook. Speech to the Anchorage Economic Development Corporation, Anchorage, Alaska , August 18, 2016

Presentation to the Anchorage Economic Development Corporation, Anchorage, Alaska , by John C. Williams, President and CEO, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco , for delivery on August 18, 2016
Speech , Paper 168

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