Search Results
Showing results 1 to 10 of approximately 298.
(refine search)
Working Paper
Measuring the Natural Rate of Interest : International Trends and Determinants
Holston, Kathryn; Williams, John C.; Laubach, Thomas
(2016-08-19)
U.S. estimates of the natural rate of interest ? the real short-term interest rate that would prevail absent transitory disturbances ? have declined dramatically since the start of the global financial crisis. For example, estimates using the Laubach-Williams (2003) model indicate the natural rate in the United States fell to close to zero during the crisis and has remained there through the end of 2015. Explanations for this decline include shifts in demographics, a slowdown in trend productivity growth, and global factors affecting real interest rates. This paper applies the ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series
, Paper 2016-073
Speech
Speed Limits and Stall Speeds: Fostering Sustainable Growth in the United States
Williams, John C.
(2017-06-26)
Presentation at the University of Technology Sydney, Sydney, Australia, by John C. Williams, President and CEO, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, June 26, 2017
Speech
, Paper 179
Speech
The role of monetary policy in bolstering economic growth
Williams, John C.
(2012)
Presentation to community leaders, Salt Lake City, Utah, November 2, 2012
Speech
, Paper 112
Journal Article
Three Questions on R-star
Williams, John C.
(2017)
The decline in the natural rate of interest, or r-star, over the past decade raises three important questions. First, is this low level for the real short-term interest rate unique to the U.S. economy? Second, is the natural rate likely to remain low in the future? And third, is this low level confined to ?safe? assets? In answer to these questions, evidence suggests that low r-star is a global phenomenon, is likely to be very persistent, and is not confined only to safe assets.
FRBSF Economic Letter
Working Paper
Measuring the natural rate of interest
Laubach, Thomas; Williams, John C.
(2001)
A key variable for the conduct of monetary policy is the natural rate of interest -- the real interest rate consistent with output equaling potential and stable inflation. Economic theory implies that the natural rate of interest varies over time and depends on the trend growth rate of output. In this paper we apply the Kalman filter to jointly estimate the natural rate of interest, potential output, and the trend growth rate, and examine the empirical relationship between these estimated unobserved series. We find substantial variation in the natural rate of interest over the past four ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series
, Paper 2001-56
Journal Article
Looking Back, Looking Ahead
Williams, John C.
(2017)
The U.S. economy is in good shape, with the labor market at maximum employment and inflation nearing the Fed?s goal. Given the progress made on these goals and signs of continued solid momentum, it makes sense to gradually move interest rates toward more normal levels. The actual pace of increases will be driven by the evolution of economic conditions and its implications for achieving the Fed?s dual mandate objectives. The following is adapted from a speech by the president and CEO of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco to the 2017 Economic Forecast in Sacramento on January 17.
FRBSF Economic Letter
Speech
Measure Twice, Cut Once
Williams, John C.
(2021-05-11)
Remarks at SOFR Symposium: The Final Year (Part II) (delivered via videoconference).
Speech
Speech
Monetary Policy and the Economic Outlook: A Fine Balancing Act
Williams, John C.
(2017-11-29)
Presentation to the 54th Annual Economic Forecast Luncheon, Phoenix, Arizona, John C. Williams, President and CEO, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, November 29, 2017.
Speech
, Paper 185
Speech
When the United States Sneezes…
Williams, John C.
(2017-11-16)
Presentation to the 2017 Asia Economic Policy Conference: Monetary Policy Challenges in a Changing Global Environment San Francisco, California, John C. Williams, President and CEO, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, November 16, 2017
Speech
, Paper 184
Journal Article
The slow recovery: it’s not just housing
Williams, John C.
(2012)
States that were hit hard by the housing bust performed worse economically during the recession of 2007-09. However, the close relationship between the fall in home prices and state economic activity has largely disappeared during the recovery. High unemployment, restrained demand, and idle production capacity are national in scope. These are just the sorts of problems monetary policy can address. ; This Letter was adapted from a speech by the president and CEO of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco at the University of San Diego on April 3, 2012.
FRBSF Economic Letter
FILTER BY year
FILTER BY Bank
Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco 210 items
Federal Reserve Bank of New York 60 items
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) 25 items
Federal Reserve Bank of Boston 2 items
Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta 1 items
FILTER BY Series
Speech 153 items
FRBSF Economic Letter 55 items
Working Paper Series 36 items
Finance and Economics Discussion Series 22 items
Annual Report 13 items
Proceedings 5 items
Staff Reports 5 items
Economic Review 4 items
Conference Series ; [Proceedings] 1 items
FRB Atlanta Working Paper 1 items
International Finance Discussion Papers 1 items
Liberty Street Economics 1 items
Working Papers 1 items
show more (8)
show less
FILTER BY Content Type
Speech 153 items
Working Paper 61 items
Journal Article 59 items
Report 18 items
Conference Paper 6 items
Discussion Paper 1 items
show more (1)
show less
FILTER BY Author
Orphanides, Athanasios 20 items
Laubach, Thomas 12 items
Mertens, Thomas M. 8 items
Edge, Rochelle M. 7 items
Gilchrist, Simon 5 items
Levin, Andrew T. 4 items
Reifschneider, David L. 4 items
Rudebusch, Glenn D. 4 items
Taylor, John B. 3 items
Weidner, Justin 3 items
Armantier, Olivier 2 items
Bok, Brandyn 2 items
Choi, Laura 2 items
Chung, Hess T. 2 items
Daly, Mary C. 2 items
Dennis, Richard 2 items
Holston, Kathryn 2 items
Jones, Charles I. 2 items
Laforte, Jean-Philippe 2 items
Swanson, Eric T. 2 items
Topa, Giorgio 2 items
Van der Klaauw, Wilbert 2 items
Wieland, Volker W. 2 items
Basinger, Tracy 1 items
Brayton, Flint 1 items
Cao, Yifan 1 items
Erickson, David J. 1 items
Galloway, Ian 1 items
Goldman, Leo 1 items
Gould, Mark 1 items
Hoff, K. Jody 1 items
Koşar, Gizem 1 items
Liu, Zheng 1 items
McGough, Bruce 1 items
Nechio, Fernanda 1 items
Onatski, Alexei 1 items
Petrosky-Nadeau, Nicolas 1 items
Pyle, Benjamin 1 items
Replogle, Roger 1 items
Roberts, John M. 1 items
Rockwood, Robin 1 items
Sbordone, Argia M. 1 items
Spiegel, Mark M. 1 items
Tetlow, Robert J. 1 items
Valletta, Robert G. 1 items
Walker, Steve 1 items
Williams, Noah 1 items
Zuckerman, Sam 1 items
show more (44)
show less
FILTER BY Jel Classification
FILTER BY Keywords
Monetary policy 107 items
Inflation (Finance) 26 items
Economic conditions - United States 22 items
Interest rates 22 items
COVID-19 20 items
Economic conditions 19 items
inflation 17 items
pandemic 16 items
Econometric models 15 items
Unemployment 11 items
employment 11 items
economy 10 items
R-star 10 items
Productivity 8 items
expectations 7 items
inflation expectations 7 items
Economic forecasting - United States 6 items
Economic growth 6 items
labor market 6 items
LIBOR 5 items
Macroeconomics 5 items
dual mandate 5 items
recovery 5 items
Fiscal policy 5 items
Uncertainty 5 items
Alternative Reference Rates Committee (ARRC) 4 items
Federal Reserve 4 items
Rational expectations (Economic theory) 4 items
financial markets 4 items
lower bound 4 items
FOMC 3 items
Monetary policy - United States 3 items
Recessions 3 items
Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR) 3 items
Wages 3 items
balance sheet 3 items
communities 3 items
forward guidance 3 items
global growth 3 items
households 3 items
inflation targeting 3 items
monetary policy normalization 3 items
natural evolution of Federal Reserve language 3 items
productivity growth 3 items
strong economy 3 items
zero lower bound 3 items
Technology 3 items
prices 3 items
zero lower bound (ZLB) 3 items
Asset pricing 2 items
Economic development 2 items
Economic development - Germany 2 items
Economic development - Japan 2 items
Economic forecasting 2 items
Economic indicators 2 items
Economics - Study and teaching 2 items
Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) 2 items
Federal Reserve communication 2 items
Housing - Prices 2 items
Macroeconomics - Econometric models 2 items
Money supply 2 items
New York City 2 items
New York Fed 2 items
New York State 2 items
Research and development 2 items
SOFR 2 items
Ukraine 2 items
accommodative 2 items
businesses 2 items
central banks 2 items
communication 2 items
corporate culture 2 items
credit 2 items
data dependent 2 items
demand 2 items
demographics 2 items
diversity 2 items
growth 2 items
health 2 items
interest rate policy 2 items
labor 2 items
lift-off 2 items
markets 2 items
maximum employment 2 items
reference rate 2 items
reference rates 2 items
supply 2 items
target range 2 items
transition 2 items
unconventional monetary policy 2 items
Risk management 2 items
ARRC 1 items
Bank supervision 1 items
Bank supervision - United States 1 items
Banking Standards Board (BSB) Assessment 1 items
Banks and banking - Asia 1 items
Banks and banking - United States 1 items
Blacks 1 items
Business cycles 1 items
Capital investments 1 items
Cash transactions 1 items
Citigroup 1 items
Community Development Financial Institutions (CDFI) 1 items
Community Reinvestment Act (CRA) 1 items
Cyclically Sensitive Inflation (CSI) 1 items
David Reifschneider 1 items
Deflation (Finance) 1 items
Disclosure of information 1 items
Econometrics 1 items
Economic conditions - China 1 items
Economic recovery 1 items
Education and Industry Forum on Financial Services Culture 1 items
Equilibrium (Economics) 1 items
FCA 1 items
FOMC communication 1 items
Federal Reserve Bank of New York 1 items
Federal Reserve System 1 items
Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) 1 items
Financial crises 1 items
Financial crises - Asia 1 items
Financial stability 1 items
Forecasting 1 items
G-star 1 items
GDP 1 items
Government securities 1 items
HMS 1 items
Housing 1 items
IOSCO 1 items
ISDA 1 items
Industrial capacity 1 items
Input-output analysis 1 items
Inter-Agency Working Group for Treasury Market Surveillance (IAWG) 1 items
International Organization of Securities Commissions (IOSCO) 1 items
John Dugan 1 items
Kalman filter 1 items
LGBT 1 items
Liquidity (Economics) 1 items
London Interbank Offered Rate (LIBOR) 1 items
Marvin Goodfriend 1 items
Microeconomics 1 items
Moderate growth 1 items
Monetary 1 items
Monetary policy rules 1 items
Money Market Mutual Fund Liquidity Facility (MMLF) 1 items
Money and interest rates 1 items
Natural rate of output 1 items
New Jersey 1 items
North Country 1 items
OSSG 1 items
Omicron 1 items
Open Finance 1 items
Open Market Trading Desk (the Desk) 1 items
Open Network 1 items
Payment systems 1 items
Phillips curve 1 items
STEM 1 items
Static Average Inflation Targeting (SAIT) 1 items
Taylor's rule 1 items
Treasury market 1 items
Treasury securities 1 items
Trend growth 1 items
Woodstock conference 1 items
accountability 1 items
adjustable rate mortgages (ARMs) 1 items
ample reserves 1 items
anchoring 1 items
average inflation targeting (AIT) 1 items
average-inflation targeting 1 items
banking culture in supervision 1 items
banks 1 items
behavior 1 items
below-target inflation rates 1 items
big metropolitan areas 1 items
blind spots 1 items
bonds 1 items
communities of color 1 items
community banking 1 items
community development 1 items
complacency 1 items
connect convene catalyze 1 items
coronavirus 1 items
corporate values 1 items
culture 1 items
cyber risk 1 items
data dependence 1 items
derivatives 1 items
disruptions 1 items
dynamic average inflation targeting (DAIT) 1 items
economic fundamentals 1 items
economic policy 1 items
economies 1 items
employer engagement 1 items
employment-to-population ratio (EPOP) 1 items
equal opportunity 1 items
equilibrium 1 items
equitable 1 items
equitable growth 1 items
equitable recovery 1 items
ethical dilemma 1 items
ethics 1 items
expansion 1 items
facilities 1 items
facts 1 items
falling R-star 1 items
families 1 items
federal funds 1 items
federal funds rate 1 items
finance 1 items
financial conditions 1 items
financial institutions 1 items
flattening 1 items
food distribution 1 items
food insecurity 1 items
food prices 1 items
foundation 1 items
framework 1 items
funding markets 1 items
gentrification 1 items
geopolitical risk 1 items
geopolitical tensions 1 items
geopolitical uncertainty 1 items
global economic markets 1 items
global economy 1 items
global financial markets 1 items
good culture 1 items
good times 1 items
gross domestic product 1 items
hard numbers 1 items
headwinds 1 items
healthcare 1 items
highly skilled workers 1 items
holistic view 1 items
in-demand skills 1 items
income 1 items
inequality 1 items
inequities 1 items
inflation goal 1 items
inflation target 1 items
interest 1 items
jobs 1 items
jobs market 1 items
large-scale asset purchases (LSAPs) 1 items
life expectancy 1 items
liquidity 1 items
local economy 1 items
low inflation 1 items
low neutral interest rate 1 items
low neutral interest rates 1 items
lower bound on interest rates 1 items
macro level 1 items
macroeconomic drivers 1 items
market 1 items
measurement 1 items
mixed picture 1 items
multiple equilibria 1 items
natural rate of interest 1 items
negative interest rates 1 items
neutral interest rate 1 items
neutral real rate of interest 1 items
new normal 1 items
nine hundred and one 1 items
non-test repo operations 1 items
normalization of balance sheet 1 items
norms 1 items
organizations 1 items
personal consumption expenditures (PCE) 1 items
policy 1 items
policy makers 1 items
powder dry 1 items
price inflation dynamics 1 items
price stability 1 items
price-level targeting 1 items
pride month 1 items
primary dealer credit facility 1 items
quantification 1 items
race 1 items
racial 1 items
racial disparities 1 items
rates 1 items
recession 1 items
regulatory framework 1 items
repo rates 1 items
resilience 1 items
risks 1 items
scandals 1 items
secured lending rates 1 items
securities 1 items
shocks 1 items
slowing global growth 1 items
spending 1 items
stability 1 items
stable inflation 1 items
statement 1 items
stimulus 1 items
strategic surveys 1 items
supply and demand 1 items
systematic policy framework 1 items
tailwinds 1 items
target 1 items
term rate 1 items
threat 1 items
total factor productivity 1 items
transparency 1 items
trimmed-mean inflation 1 items
uncertainty shocks 1 items
underlying inflation 1 items
unemployment gap 1 items
vaccination 1 items
values 1 items
volatility 1 items
workers 1 items
workforce 1 items
workforce development 1 items
wrongdoing 1 items
show more (323)
show less