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Author:Williams, John C. 

Report
Redefining the labor market. SF Fed economists Rob Valletta, Nicolas Petrosky-Nadeau, and Mary C. Daly share their thoughts on the U.S. labor market with fellow economist President John Williams

Changes in demographics, and in employer and worker needs, have redefined the U.S. labor market. We discuss the "new normal" in our 2015 annual report, What We've Learned?and why it matters. Observations include how the gig economy?or sharing economy?is affecting the part-time workforce. We also look at influences on labor force participation rates and clarify the math behind sluggish wage growth. A consideration for both is the retirement of higher-earning baby boomers and the increase in steady employment for lower-wage workers.
Annual Report

Working Paper
Measuring the effect of the zero lower bound on medium- and longer-term interest rates

The zero lower bound on nominal interest rates has constrained the Federal Reserve?s setting of the overnight federal funds rate for over three years running. According to many macroeconomic models, such an extended period of being stuck at the zero bound has important implications for the effectiveness of monetary and fiscal policies. However, economic theory also implies that households? and firms? decisions depend on the entire path of expected future short-term interest rates, not just the current level of the overnight rate. Thus, interest rates with a year or more to maturity are ...
Working Paper Series , Paper 2012-02

Working Paper
Imperfect knowledge, inflation expectations, and monetary policy

This paper investigates the role of imperfect knowledge regarding the structure of the economy on the formation of expectations, macroeconomic dynamics, and the efficient formulation of monetary policy. Economic agents rely on an adaptive learning technology to form expectations and continuously update their beliefs regarding the dynamic structure of the economy based on incoming data. The process of perpetual learning introduces an additional layer of dynamic interactions between monetary policy and economic outcomes. We find that policies that would be efficient under rational expectations ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 2002-27

Speech
The Economy in the Time of Coronavirus

Remarks at the Buffalo Niagara Partnership, the Greater Rochester Chamber of Commerce, and CenterState CEO (delivered via videoconference).
Speech

Journal Article
The shape of things to come

Economic recoveries from the past two recessions have been much more gradual than the rapid V-shaped recoveries typical of earlier downturns. Analysis of the factors that determine economic growth rates indicates that recovery from the most recent recession is likely to be faster than from the two previous recessions, but slower than earlier V-shaped recoveries..
FRBSF Economic Letter

Speech
When the United States Sneezes…

Presentation to the 2017 Asia Economic Policy Conference: Monetary Policy Challenges in a Changing Global Environment San Francisco, California, John C. Williams, President and CEO, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, November 16, 2017
Speech , Paper 184

Journal Article
Estimating the macroeconomic effects of the Fed’s asset purchases

An analysis shows that the Federal Reserve?s large-scale asset purchases have been effective at reducing the economic costs of the zero lower bound on interest rates. Model simulations indicate that, by 2012, the past and projected expansion of the Fed?s securities holdings since late 2008 will lower the unemployment rate by 1 percentage points relative to what it would have been absent the purchases. The asset purchases also have probably prevented the U.S. economy from falling into deflation.
FRBSF Economic Letter

Speech
Risk management and macroprudential supervisory policies

Welcoming Remarks to the Symposium on Asian Banking and Finance, Federal Reserve Bank of Sanfrancisco, September 9, 2011
Speech , Paper 91

Speech
Monetary Policy and the Economic Outlook

Remarks at Euromoney Real Return XIII: The Inflation-Linked Products Conference 2019, New York City.
Speech , Paper 328

Report
The fragility of finances. SF Fed Community Development's Laura Choi talks with President John Williams about creative placemaking, a neighborhood revitalization strategy that engages local artists and performers

In the 2015 annual report, What We've Learned...and why it matters, we discuss creative placemaking, a new concept that refers to the enhanced role art plays in our communities. We've learned that creating culturally relevant spaces, ones that are vibrant and attractive, increases a community?s economic potential. Creative placemaking taps into local artists and communities, ensuring culturally significant voices are represented and reflected.
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