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Author:Williams, John C. 

Speech
Will the financial crisis have a lasting effect on unemployment?

To understand Fed policy at this point, you have to look at this whole picture. We have good GDP growth, but a yawning shortfall of employment and output from potential levels. ; Presentation to the Chicago Booth Graduate School of Business Alumni Club of San Francisco, San Francisco, Ca, February 22, 2011
Speech , Paper 83

Report
What we’ve learned ... and why it matters. 2015 Annual Report President's Letter

2015 Annual Report President's Letter. Report consists of web-text, videos and podcasts, available at: http://www.frbsf.org/our-district/about/annual-report/annual-report-2015/#toc
Annual Report

Speech
Keeping the Recovery Sustainable: The Essential Role of an Independent Fed. Speech to the Santa Cruz Chamber of Commerce, Santa Cruz, California, February 28, 2017.

Presentation to the Santa Cruz Chamber of Commerce in Santa Cruz, California, by John C. Williams, President and CEO, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, February 28, 2017.
Speech , Paper 173

Working Paper
Monetary policy in a low inflation economy with learning

In theory, monetary policies that target the price level, as opposed to the inflation rate, should be highly effective at stabilizing the economy and avoiding deflation in the presence of the zero lower bound on nominal interest rates. With such a policy, if the short-term interest rate is constrained at zero and the inflation rate declines below its trend, the public expects that policy will eventually engineer a period of above-trend inflation that restores the price level to its target level. Expectations of future monetary accommodation stimulate output and inflation today, mitigating the ...
Working Paper Series , Paper 2006-30

Speech
The economy and monetary policy: follow the demand

Presentation to The Forecasters Club, New York, New York, February 21, 2013
Speech , Paper 116

Speech
Monetary policy strategies for a low-neutral-interest-rate world: remarks at the 80th Plenary Meeting of the Group of Thirty, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, New York City

Remarks at the 80th Plenary Meeting of the Group of Thirty, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, New York City.
Speech , Paper 303

Journal Article
Simple rules for monetary policy

How effective are "simple" monetary policy rules at stabilizing the economy? This paper explores the characteristics and performance of monetary policy rules designed to minimize fluctuations in inflation, output, and interest rates using the Federal Reserve Board's large-scale FRB/US macroeconometric model. I find that a smoothed measure of inflation, the output gap, and the lagged funds rate are sufficient statistics for the setting of monetary policy. Efficient simple rules that respond to these three variables perform nearly as well as fully optimal policies that respond to the hundreds ...
Economic Review

Speech
Monetary policy in an era of crises

Presentation to the International Monetary Fund Annual Research Conference, Washington, D.C., November 11, 2011
Speech , Paper 93

Working Paper
Have we underestimated the likelihood and severity of zero lower bound events?

Before the recent recession, the consensus among researchers was that the zero lower bound (ZLB) probably would not pose a significant problem for monetary policy as long as a central bank aimed for an inflation rate of about 2 percent; some have even argued that an appreciably lower target inflation rate would pose no problems. This paper reexamines this consensus in the wake of the financial crisis, which has seen policy rates at their effective lower bound for more than two years in the United States and Japan and near zero in many other countries. We conduct our analysis using a set of ...
Working Paper Series , Paper 2011-01

Speech
When the Facts Change…: remarks at the 9th High-Level Conference on the International Monetary System, Zürich, Switzerland

Remarks at the 9th High-Level Conference on the International Monetary System, Zrich, Switzerland.
Speech , Paper 320

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