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Author:Williams, John C. 

Working Paper
Measuring the Natural Rate of Interest Redux

Persistently low real interest rates have prompted the question whether low interest rates are here to stay. This essay assesses the empirical evidence regarding the natural rate of interest in the United States using the Laubach-Williams model. Since the start of the Great Recession, the estimated natural rate of interest fell sharply and shows no sign of recovering. These results are robust to alternative model specifications. If the natural rate remains low, future episodes of hitting the zero lower bound are likely to be frequent and long-lasting. In addition, uncertainty about the ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 2016-11

China, rates, and the outlook: may the (economic) force be with you

Presentation to the Symposium on Building the Financial System of the 21st Century: An agenda for China and the United States, Armonk, New York, September 19, 2015
Speech , Paper 152

Fulfilling our economic potential: remarks at the Association for Neighborhood & Housing Development 2019 Annual Conference, New York City

Remarks at the Association for Neighborhood & Housing Development 2019 Annual Conference, New York City.
Speech , Paper 316

After the first rate hike

Presentation to California Bankers Association, Santa Barbara, CA, January 8, 2016
Speech , Paper 160

Welcoming remarks at the Investing in America's Workforce Book Launch Event, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, New York City

Remarks at the Investing in America's Workforce Book Launch Event, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, New York City.
Speech , Paper 300

Working Paper
Inflation targeting under imperfect knowledge

A central tenet of inflation targeting is that establishing and maintaining well-anchored inflation expectations are essential. In this paper, we reexamine the role of key elements of the inflation targeting framework towards this end, in the context of an economy where economic agents have an imperfect understanding of the macroeconomic landscape within which the public forms expectations and policymakers must formulate and implement monetary policy. Using an estimated model of the U.S. economy, we show that monetary policy rules that would perform well under the assumption of rational ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 2006-20

Working Paper
Three lessons for monetary policy in a low inflation era

The zero lower bound on nominal interest rates constrains the central bank's ability to stimulate the economy during downturns. We use the FRB/US model to quantify the effects of the bound on macroeconomic stabilization and to explore how policy can be designed to minimize these effects. During particularly severe contractions, open-market operations alone may be insufficient to restore equilibrium; some other stimulus is needed. Abstracting from such rare events, if policy follows the Taylor rule and targets a zero inflation rate, there is a significant increase in the variability of output ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 1999-44

Macroprudential policy in a microprudential world

Symposium on Asian Banking and Finance, Singapore, May 28, 2015
Speech , Paper 139

The economic outlook: live long and prosper

Presentation to Community Leaders Luncheon, Salt Lake City, Utah, October 1, 2015
Speech , Paper 154

Journal Article
Monetary policy in uncertain times

The Federal Reserve has taken bold steps this past year, both in the approaches to stimulate the economy and the way it talks about policy. The Fed's initiatives are working, and represent the best course to move toward maximum employment and price stability. ; This letter is adapted from a presentation by the president and CEO of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco to the Semiconductor Materials and Equipment International (SEMI) 2013 Industry Strategy Symposium, in Half Moon Bay, California, on January 14, 2013.
FRBSF Economic Letter


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