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Author:Williams, John 

Working Paper
Expectations, learning and the costs of disinflation: experiments using the FRB/US model

The costs of disinflation are explored using the Board's new sticky-price rational expectations macroeconometric model of the U.S. economy, FRB/US. The model nests both model consistent and `restricted-information rational' expectations. Monetary policy is governed by interest-rate reaction functions of which two are considered: the well-known Taylor rule and another rule that is more aggressive and richer in its specification, estimated using data for the last 15 years. Agents are required to learn of shifts of the inflation target using linear updating rules. The simulated costs of ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 1997-42

Working Paper
Investment, capacity, and output: a putty-clay approach

In this paper, we embed the microeconomic decisions associated with investment under uncertainty, capacity utilization, and machine replacement in a general equilibrium model based on putty-clay technology. We show that the combination of log-normally distributed idiosyncratic productivity uncertainty and Leontief utilization choice yields an aggregate production function that is easily characterized in terms of hazard rates for the standard normal distribution. At low levels of idiosyncratic uncertainty, the short-run elasticity of supply is substantially lower than the elasticity of supply ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 1998-44

Journal Article
Technology, productivity, and public policy

This Economic Letter summarizes papers presented at the conference "Technology, Productivity, and Public Policy" held at the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco on November 7-8, 2003. The conference was the inaugural event of the new Center for the Study of Innovation and Productivity (CSIP), which is organized within the Economic Research Department of the Bank.
FRBSF Economic Letter

Journal Article
Fiscal and monetary policy: conference summary

This Economic Letter summarizes the papers presented at a conference on "Fiscal and Monetary Policy" held at the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco on March 4 and 5, 2005.
FRBSF Economic Letter

Journal Article
The role of expectations in the FRB/US macroeconomic model

In the past year, the staff of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System began using a new macroeconomic model of the U.S. economy referred to as the FRB/US model. This system of mathematical equations, describing interactions among economic measures such as inflation, interest rates, and gross domestic product, is one of the tools used in economic forecasting and the analysis of macroeconomic policy issues at the Board. The FRB/US model replaces the MPS model, which, with periodic revisions, had been used at the Federal Reserve Board since the early 1970s. A key feature of the new ...
Federal Reserve Bulletin , Issue Apr

Journal Article
Aggregate disturbances, monetary policy, and the macroeconomy: the FRB/US perspective

The FRB/US macroeconometric model of the U.S. economy was created at the Federal Reserve Board for use in policy analysis and forecasting. This article begins with an examination of the model's characterization of the monetary transmission mechanism -- the chain of relationships describing how monetary policy actions influence financial markets and, in turn, output and inflation. The quantitative nature of this mechanism is illustrated by estimates of the effect of movements in interest rates and other factors on spending in different sectors and by simulations of the effect of a change in ...
Federal Reserve Bulletin , Issue Jan

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