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The Relationship between Wage Growth and Inflation, One Recession Later
Periods of high inflation generally are periods of low real wage growth. In the aftermath of the pandemic recession, is that still the case?
Journal Article
The Evolving Relationship between COVID-19 and Financial Distress.
During most of the COVID-19 pandemic, regions with high financial distress saw disproportionately more infections and deaths than regions with low financial distress. As of February 2021, cumulative infections appear more evenly distributed. However, total deaths remain higher in financially distressed regions.
Credit Card Deleveraging during the COVID-19 Pandemic
The patterns of debt creation and debt destruction during the pandemic are different from those during the Great Recession.
Journal Article
Foreclosure Rate Drops during COVID-19 despite Dip in On-Time Mortgage Payments
While on-time residential mortgage payments dropped drastically during the 2020 COVID-19 pandemic, most delinquent borrowers avoided foreclosure.
Journal Article
The Economic Impact of COVID-19 around the World
This article provides an account of the worldwide economic impact of the COVID-19 shock. In 2020, it severely impacted output growth and employment, particularly in middle-income countries. Governments responded primarily by increasing expenditure, supported by an expansion of the supply of money and debt. These policies did not put upward pressure on prices until 2021. International trade was severely disrupted across all regions in 2020 but subsequently recovered. For 2021, we find that the adverse effects of the COVID-19 shock on output and prices were significant and persistent, ...
Are Mortgages Becoming More Affordable?
U.S. households with preexisting mortgages have loan payments that are fixed. Wage growth means they spend a smaller share of income on housing.
Journal Article
On-Time Mortgage Payments Recover, Even in Financially Distressed Areas
During the COVID-19 recession, mortgage repayment rates fell further in areas with high levels of financial distress, but they also recovered faster.
Journal Article
COVID-19 Death Gap by County Income Widened after Vaccine Availability
U.S. counties with the highest incomes had lower COVID-19 death rates than the lowest-income counties, with the gap widening in the pandemic’s second year.
Forbearance during COVID-19: How Many Borrowers Used It, and for How Long?
Sixteen percent of individuals with mortgages used forbearance between April 2020 and December 2021. For those requesting mortgage relief, how long did forbearance last?
Working Paper
The Economic Impact of COVID-19 around the World
For over two years, the world has been battling the health and economic consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic. This paper provides an account of the worldwide economic impact of the COVID-19 shock, measured by GDP growth, employment, government spending, monetary policy, and trade. We find that the COVID-19 shock severely impacted output growth and employment in 2020, particularly in middle-income countries. The government response, mainly consisting of increased expenditure, implied a rise in debt levels. Advanced countries, having easier access to credit markets, experienced the highest ...