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Journal Article
Safe Occupations Are Growing
Health problems and disability claims have declined in the fastest-growing occupations.
Worker Types in the U.S. Labor Market
Grouping workers by patterns in employment history can help explain persistent joblessness and the quick recovery in productivity after a recession.
Working Paper
The Alpha Beta Gamma of the Labor Market
Based on patterns of employment transitions, we identify three different types of workers in the US labor market: α’s β’s and γ’s. Workers of type α make up over half of all workers, are most likely to remain on the same job for more than 2 years and, when they become unemployed, typically find a new job within 1 quarter. Workers of type γ comprise less than one-fifth of workers, have a low probability of staying on the same job for more than 2 years and, when they become unemployed, face a high probability of remaining jobless for more than 1 year. Workers of type β are in ...
Working Paper
Multidimensional Skill Mismatch
What determines the earnings of a worker relative to his peers in the same occupation? What makes a worker fail in one occupation but succeed in another? More broadly, what are the factors that determine the productivity of a worker-occupation match? In this paper, we propose an empirical measure of skill mismatch for a worker-occupation match, which sheds light on these questions. This measure is based on the discrepancy between the portfolio of skills required by an occupation and the portfolio of abilities possessed by a worker for learning those skills. This measure arises naturally in a ...
Working Paper
Vocational Considerations and Trends in Social Security Disability
Along with health, Social Security Disability Insurance (SSDI) evaluates work-limiting disability by considering vocational factors including age, education, and past work experience. As the number of SSDI applicants and awards has increased, these vocational criteria are increasingly important to acceptances and denials. A unique state-level dataset allows us to estimate how these factors relate to the SSDI award process. These estimates are used to asses how changes to the demographic and occupational composition have contributed to awards trends. In our results, the prevalence of workers ...
Working Paper
Equilibrium Sovereign Default with Exchange Rate Depreciation
This study proposes and quantitatively assesses a terms-of-trade penalty for defaulting: defaulters must exchange more of their own goods for imports, which causes an adjustment to the equilibrium exchange rate. This penalty can take the place of an ad hoc fall in output: Facing only this penalty and temporary exclusion from debt markets, countries are willing to maintain borrowing obligations up to a realistic level of debt. The terms-of-trade penalty is consistent with the observed relationship between sovereign default and a country's trade flows and prices. The defaulter's currency ...
Journal Article
Classifying Worker Types in the U.S. Labor Market
Why some worker types have difficulty finding stable jobs can’t easily be explained by demographic characteristics.
Journal Article
Disability Rate Exceeds Nation's; Problem Is Worse in Rural Areas
More than 4 percent of the people in the District are ?on disability,? receiving Social Security Disability Insurance benefits, vs. 2.6 percent for the rest of the country. Rural counties in the District have higher rates than do metro areas.
Journal Article
Worker Types, Job Displacement, and Duration Dependence
The composition of the workforce has implications for the earnings consequences of a job loss and patterns in the job-finding rate.
Journal Article
Job separation rate shows economic shifts
Quits rise when the economy is good; layoffs and discharges rise when the economy isn?t.