Search Results

SORT BY: PREVIOUS / NEXT
Author:Wiczer, David 

Journal Article
“Unemployment claims hit 8½-year low”: interpret with caution

An unemployment statistic based on unemployment insurance is less useful because it does not measure unemployment itself.
Economic Synopses , Issue 20

Journal Article
Looking at Recessions through a Different Lens

Traditionally, research about recessions focused on the big picture?how the overall economy was performing. But recent economic studies have looked at the impact on specific groups. One of the interesting findings is that the highest earners are, by some measures, the most affected by recessions.
The Regional Economist

Discussion Paper
Not Just “Stimulus” Checks: The Marginal Propensity to Repay Debt

Households frequently use stimulus checks to pay down existing debt. In this post, we discuss the empirical evidence on this marginal propensity to repay debt (MPRD), and we present new findings using the Survey of Consumer Expectations. We find that households with low net wealth-to-income ratios were more prone to use transfers from the CARES Act of March 2020 to pay down debt. We then show that standard models of consumption-saving behavior can be made consistent with these empirical findings if borrowers’ interest rates rise with debt. Our model suggests that fiscal policy may face a ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20230627

Journal Article
\\"Where's the Wage Pressure?\\"

As the unemployment rate declines, many people assume that the average wage in the U.S. will increase. However, the average doesn't move that fast over a single business cycle. And any movement over the long term is more in favor of high-wage earners than low-wage earners.
The Regional Economist , Issue Jan

Working Paper
The Alpha Beta Gamma of the Labor Market

We access a long panel dataset of US workers to document the extent to which individuals are heterogeneous with respect to their pattern of transitions across employment states. We find that heterogeneity is well approximated by three latent types: αs, βs and γs. Workers of type α leave unemployment quickly and, once they find a job, they are likely to keep it for more than 2 years. Workers of type γ find employment slowly and, once they do find a job, they are likely to leave it within 1 year. We use our empirical findings to calibrate a search-theoretic model in which workers are ...
Working Papers , Paper 2021-003

Journal Article
Assessing the Recent Rise in Unemployment

The unemployment rate has risen over half a percentage point since the second quarter of 2023. Individual survey data underlying the unemployment rate can help in assessing which labor market transitions account for this rise. One dominant factor appears to be a fall in the job-finding rate—the share of unemployed individuals finding employment. The duration of unemployment has also increased recently. In past decades, these patterns have frequently occurred during the onset of recessions, which suggests that these data should be closely monitored.
FRBSF Economic Letter , Volume 2025 , Issue 09 , Pages 6

Working Paper
Firm Exit and Liquidity: Evidence from the Great Recession

This paper studies the role of credit constraints in accounting for the dynamics of firm exit during the Great Recession. We present novel firm-level evidence on the role of credit constraints on exit behavior during the Great Recession. Firms in financial distress, with tighter access to credit, are more likely to default than firms with more access to credit. This difference widened substantially in the Great Recession while, in contrast, default rates did not vary much by size, age, or productivity. We identify conditions under which standard models of firms subject to financial frictions ...
Working Papers , Paper 2023-011

Working Paper
Stimulus through Insurance: The Marginal Propensity to Repay Debt

Using detailed micro data, we document that households often use "stimulus" checks to pay down debt, especially those with low net wealth-to-income ratios. To rationalize these patterns, we introduce a borrowing price schedule into an otherwise standard incomplete markets model. Because interest rates rise with debt, borrowers have increasingly larger incentives to use an additional dollar to reduce debt service payments rather than consume. Using our calibrated model, we then study whether and how this marginal propensity to repay debt (MPRD) alters the aggregate implications of fiscal ...
FRB Atlanta Working Paper , Paper 14

Working Paper
Firm Exit and Liquidity: Evidence from the Great Recession

This paper studies the role of credit constraints in accounting for the dynamics of firm exit during the Great Recession. We present novel firm-level evidence on the role of credit constraints on exit behavior during the Great Recession. Firms in financial distress, with tighter access to credit, are more likely to default than firms with more access to credit. This difference widened substantially in the Great Recession while, in contrast, default rates did not vary much by size, age, or productivity. We identify conditions under which standard models of firms subject to financial frictions ...
Opportunity and Inclusive Growth Institute Working Papers , Paper 074

Working Paper
Occupational hazards and social disability insurance

Using retrospective data, we introduce evidence that occupational exposure significantly affects disability risk. Incorporating this into a general equilibrium model, social disability insurance (SDI) affects welfare through (i) the classic, risk-sharing channel and (ii) a new channel of occupational reallocation. Both channels can increase welfare, but at the optimal SDI they are at odds. Welfare gains from additional risk-sharing are reduced by overly incentivizing workers to choose risky occupations. In a calibration, optimal SDI increases welfare by 2.6% relative to actuarially fair ...
Working Papers , Paper 2014-24

FILTER BY year

FILTER BY Content Type

FILTER BY Jel Classification

E24 11 items

E32 5 items

O40 5 items

R11 5 items

E62 4 items

G01 4 items

show more (16)

FILTER BY Keywords

PREVIOUS / NEXT