Search Results
Working Paper
Predictive Modeling of Surveyed Property Conditions and Vacancy
Using the results of a comprehensive in-person survey of properties in Cleveland, Ohio, we fit predictive models of vacancy and property conditions. We draw predictor variables from administrative data that is available in most jurisdictions such as deed recordings, tax assessor?s property characteristics, and foreclosure filings. Using logistic regression and machine learning methods, we are able to make reasonably accurate out-of-sample predictions. Our findings indicate that housing professionals could use administrative data and predictive models to identify distressed properties between ...
Monograph
Applying Research to Policy Issues in Distressed Housing Markets: Data-Driven Decision Making
A compilation of research published by the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland on housing markets experiencing foreclosure and/or a large number of vacant properties which sheds light on a wide range of housing markets. It provides possible policy solutions applicable to both regional and national policy discussions.
Working Paper
Migration as a Vector of Economic Losses from Disaster-Affected Areas in the United States
In this paper, we infuse consideration of migration into research on economic losses from extreme weather disasters. Taking a comparative case study approach and using data from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York/Equifax Consumer Credit Panel, we document the size of economic losses via migration from 23 disaster-affected areas in the United States after the most damaging hurricanes, tornadoes, and wildfires on record. We then employ demographic standardization and decomposition to determine if these losses primarily reflect changes in out-migration or changes in the economic resources that ...
Working Paper
Land Bank 2.0: an empirical evaluation
Cuyahoga County created a land bank in 2009 explicitly intended to acquire low-value properties, mitigate blighted housing, help stabilize neighborhoods, and slow the decline of property values. This paper evaluates the effectiveness of the land bank by estimating spatially-corrected hedonic price models using sales near the land bank homes. Homes that sold within 500 feet of a property that would be acquired by the land bank in the next six months show a 3 to 5 percent discount versus observationally similar homes. Homes that sold within 500 feet of a land bank owned home sold at prices ...
Journal Article
Manufacturing or Degree-Intensive Labor Markets: Where Do the Children of Non-College Graduates Earn More Degrees?
Manufacturing employment has declined since the 1970s, while the number of jobs requiring a college degree has risen. The shift has reshaped the environment in which many young people grow up and pursue their educations, potentially affecting the level of education they attain. This analysis uses the National Longitudinal Surveys of Youth to investigate the relationship between industrial composition and the educational attainment of children whose parents have only a high school education or less. The results show that the educational attainment of these youths is correlated with their ...
Working Paper
Effects of Wildfire Destruction on Migration, Consumer Credit, and Financial Distress
The scale of wildfire destruction has grown exponentially in recent years, destroying nearly 25,000 buildings in the United States during 2018 alone. However, there is still limited research exploring how wildfires affect migration patterns and household finances. In this study, we evaluate the effects of wildfire destruction on in-migration and out-migration probability at the Census tract level in the United States from 1999 to 2018. We then shift to the individual level and examine changes in homeownership, consumer credit usage, and financial distress among people whose neighborhood ...
Working Paper
Internal Migration in the United States: A Comparative Assessment of the Utility of the Consumer Credit Panel
This paper demonstrates that credit bureau data, such as the Federal Reserve Bank of New York Consumer Credit Panel/Equifax (CCP), can be used to study internal migration in the United States. It is comparable to, and in some ways superior to, the standard data used to study migration, including the American Community Survey (ACS), the Current Population Survey (CPS), and the Internal Revenue Service (IRS) county-to-county migration data. CCP-based estimates of migration intensity, connectivity, and spatial focusing are similar to estimates derived from the ACS, CPS, and IRS data. The CCP can ...
Working Paper
Prioritization in private-activity-bond volume cap allocation
This paper proposes and tests a structural model reflecting the process of authorizing private-activity municipal bond issuance. Private-activity municipal bonds offer tax-exempt financing for programs including industrial development, utilities, low-income housing, and student loans. The Federal tax code sets annual caps on the total tax-exempt issuance within each state, so authorization becomes a scarce resource distributed via a political process. Interviews with program administrators in several states suggested the authorization process involves prioritizing categories of use, ...
Journal Article
Are Millennials with Student Loans Upwardly Mobile?
Students have been amassing ever growing levels of debt to attend college. The situation has raised concerns about whether the debt is high enough that the benefits of borrowing--in terms of students' future socioeconomic outcomes--are compromised. This Commentary investigates relationships between student debt, mobility, and upward social mobility. The findings suggest that student debts have not become so burdensome that they undo the advantages of higher skills. However, the advantages enjoyed by heavily indebted millennial students relative to nonborrowers have declined substantially from ...
Working Paper
Industrial Composition and Intergenerational Mobility
Using the National Longitudinal Surveys of Youth (NLSY), this article examines the influence of a region’s industrial composition on the educational attainment of children raised by parents who do not have college degrees. The NLSY’s geo-coded panel allows for precise measurements of the local industries that shaped the parents’ employment opportunities and the labor market that the children directly observed. For cohorts finishing school in the 1990s and early 2000s, concentrations of manufacturing are positively associated with both high school and college attainment. Concentrations ...