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Author:Wen, Yi 

Journal Article
The quantity theory of money

Monetary Trends , Issue Nov

Working Paper
The Poverty of Macroeconomics --- What the Chemical Revolution Tells Us about Neoclassical Production Function

Quantitative macroeconomics is often portrayed as a science—because of its intensive use of high-powered mathematics—with the possible limitation of being unable to conduct controlled experiments. To qualify as a science, however, theories in that discipline must meet a minimum number of criteria: (i) It has explanatory power to explain phenomena; (ii) it has predictive power to yield quantifiable and falsifiable statements about new phenomenon; and (iii) it has operational power to change the world. A scientific theory consists of axioms and working hypotheses that facilitate the ...
Working Papers , Paper 2021-001

Journal Article
Granger causality and equilibrium business cycle theory

Postwar U.S. data show that consumption growth "Granger-causes" output and investment growth, which is puzzling if technology is the driving force of the business cycle. The author asks whether general equilibrium models with information frictions and non-technology shocks can rationalize the observed causal relationships. His conclusion is they cannot.
Review , Volume 89 , Issue May , Pages 195-206

Working Paper
QE: when and how should the Fed exit?

The essence of Quantitative Easing (QE) is to reduce the costs of private borrowing through large-scale purchases of privately issue debts, instead of public debts (Ben Bernanke, 2009). Notwithstanding the effectiveness of this highly unconventional monetary policy in reviving private investment and the economy, it is time to think about the likely impacts of the unwinding of QE (or the reversed private-asset purchases) on the economy. In a standard economic model, if monetary injections can increase aggregate output and employment, then the reversed action will likely undo such effects. ...
Working Papers , Paper 2014-16

Working Paper
What inventories tell us about aggregate fluctuations -- a tractable approach to (S,s) policies

We estimate a DSGE model with (S,s) inventory policies. We find that (i) taking inventories into account can significantly improve the empirical fit of DSGE models in matching the standard business-cycle moments (in addition to explaining inventory fluctuations); (ii) (S,s) inventory policies can significantly amplify aggregate output fluctuations, in contrast to the findings of the recent general-equilibrium inventory literature; and (iii) aggregate demand shocks become more important than technol- ogy shocks in explaining the business cycle once inventories are incorporated into the model. ...
Working Papers , Paper 2012-059

Journal Article
Understanding the Trade Imbalance and Employment Decline in U.S. Manufacturing

Economic analysis suggests that a trade war with China can neither stop the decline in American manufacturing employment nor eliminate the U.S. trade deficit, but it could significantly reduce the welfare of American consumers by making U.S. imports of Chinese goods more expensive. Moreover, it could cause the United States to lose its global leadership in free trade and globalization and facilitate China's rise as a world leader in trade and commerce. A better approach may be for policymakers to design policies that can ensure fair redistribution of the gains from free trade among American ...
Economic Synopses , Issue 15 , Pages 1-3

Journal Article
Money supply, credit expansion, and housing price inflation

Credit and M2 may be driven simultaneously as part of a broader financial intermediation process; a common underlying factor may be the interest rate
Economic Synopses

V-Shaped Recovery Eludes G-7 Countries

Economic growth should overshoot its long-run trend to make up for the downturn caused by the pandemic. So far, this hasn’t happened.
On the Economy

Journal Article
Anecdotal Evidence Suggests State Capacity Unrelated to COVID-19 Spread

The COVID-19 pandemic has underscored many societal issues, including the capacity of different world governments to contain the virus’ spread.
The Regional Economist , Volume 28 , Issue 4

Working Paper
Are Government Bonds Net Wealth or a Liability? ---Optimal Debt and Taxes in an OLG Model with Uninsurable Income Risk

The rapidly growing national debt in the U.S. since the 1970s has alarmed and intrigued the academic world. Consequently, the concept of dynamic (in)efficiency in an overlapping generations (OLG) world and the importance of the heterogeneous-agents and incomplete markets (HAIM) hypothesis to justify a high debt-to-GDP ratio have been extensively studied. Two important consensus emerge from this literature: (i) The optimal quantity of public debt is positive—due to insufficient private liquidity to support private saving and investment (see, e.g., Barro (1974), Woodford (1990), and Aiyagari ...
Working Papers , Paper 2020-007

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