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Author:Webb, Roy H. 

Briefing
How useful are consumer surveys as macroeconomic indicators?

Most economic indicators attempt to summarize what happened at a particular time in the past. Consumer surveys, however, examine attitudes and are thus fundamentally different from other widely reported indicators. Some surveys, such as those that measure inflation expectations, have proven to be useful to economists and policymakers, while the evidence is more mixed for others, such as forecasts of consumer spending.
Richmond Fed Economic Brief , Issue July

Journal Article
Forecasts 1984

Roy H. Webb summarizes the consensus outlook for the current year in Forecasts 1984. (A more detailed summary of individual forecasts is available in the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmonds Business Forecasts 1984.) Most forecasters are calling for a continuation of the above-average growth and relatively low inflation of 1983. However, the consensus forecast has not been very accurate in the last two years.
Economic Review , Volume 70 , Issue Jan , Pages 24-26

Journal Article
Which price index should a central bank employ?

Economic Quarterly , Volume 90 , Issue Spr , Pages 63-76

Journal Article
The national income and product accounts

Economic Review , Volume 72 , Issue May , Pages 11-17

Journal Article
Vector autoregressions as a tool for forecast evaluations

In his article, Vector Autoregressions as a Tool for Forecast Evaluation, Roy H. Webb proposes that VAR forecasts be used as a standard of comparison for other forecasts. He begins by explaining how conventional forecasting models are constructed and used, and summarizes a few common objections to these models. He then describes the VAR methodology and compares forecasts from a simple VAR model with those from a consulting firm that uses a conventional model and with a series of consensus forecasts. The VAR model holds its own in this competition; in fact, only the VAR model is able to ...
Economic Review , Volume 70 , Issue Jan , Pages 3-11

Journal Article
Why economic data should be handled with care : the case of the suspiciously slow growth statistic

An abstract for this article is not available.
Economic Review , Volume 69 , Issue Jul , Pages 12-13

Journal Article
Forecasts 1982

An abstract for this article is not available.
Economic Review , Volume 68 , Issue Jan , Pages 17-24

Journal Article
Taxing capital gains

An abstract for this article is not available
Economic Review , Volume 66 , Issue Nov , Pages 14-22

Journal Article
National productivity statistics

Economic Quarterly , Issue Win , Pages 45-64

Journal Article
Using the federal funds futures market to predict monetary policy actions

Economic Quarterly , Issue Spr , Pages 69-77

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