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Author:Watson, Mark W. 

Journal Article
Using econometric models to predict recessions

Economic Perspectives , Volume 15 , Issue Nov

Conference Paper
Has the business cycle changed?

Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole

Conference Paper
Modeling inflation after the crisis

Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole

Journal Article
Commentary on \\"what's real about the business cycle?\\"

Review , Volume 87 , Issue Jul , Pages 453-458

Working Paper
Testing long run neutrality

Working Paper Series, Macroeconomic Issues , Paper 92-18

Conference Paper
On the sources of the Great Moderation - discussion

Proceedings , Issue Nov

Journal Article
The Disappointing Recovery in U.S. Output after 2009

U.S. output has expanded only slowly since the recession trough in 2009, counter to normal expectations of a rapid cyclical recovery. Removing cyclical effects reveals that the deep recession was superimposed on a sharply slowing trend in underlying growth. The slowing trend reflects two factors: slow growth of innovation and declining labor force participation. Both of these powerful adverse forces were in place before the recession and, thus, were not the result of the financial crisis or policy changes since 2009.
FRBSF Economic Letter

Journal Article
How did leading indicator forecasts perform during the 2001 recession?

Economic Quarterly , Volume 89 , Issue Sum , Pages 71-90

Working Paper
Stochastic trends and economic fluctuations

Working Paper Series, Macroeconomic Issues , Paper 91-4

Working Paper
A simple estimator of cointegrating vectors in higher order integrated systems

Working Paper Series, Macroeconomic Issues , Paper 91-3

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