Using econometric models to predict recessions
Has the business cycle changed?
Modeling inflation after the crisis
Commentary on \\"what's real about the business cycle?\\"
Testing long run neutrality
On the sources of the Great Moderation - discussion
The Disappointing Recovery in U.S. Output after 2009
U.S. output has expanded only slowly since the recession trough in 2009, counter to normal expectations of a rapid cyclical recovery. Removing cyclical effects reveals that the deep recession was superimposed on a sharply slowing trend in underlying growth. The slowing trend reflects two factors: slow growth of innovation and declining labor force participation. Both of these powerful adverse forces were in place before the recession and, thus, were not the result of the financial crisis or policy changes since 2009.
Stochastic trends and economic fluctuations