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Fed manufacturing surveys provide insight into national economy
Regional Federal Reserve Banks? manufacturing surveys provide important insight into national economic conditions. The Dallas Fed?s Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey performs well forecasting the ISM manufacturing index and U.S. industrial production.
Residual seasonality in U.S. GDP data
Rudebush et al (2015a, b) and the Bureau of Economic Analysis find the presence of residual seasonality in the official estimates of U.S. real gross domestic product (GDP). Directly seasonally adjusting official seasonally adjusted GDP, which we refer to as double seasonal adjustment, could revise the first quarter growth in the past several years upward by an average of about 1.5 percentage points. The presence of residual seasonality can significantly distort current analysis of national and regional economies. In this paper we look more closely at the U.S. GDP data and study the quality of ...
Spotlight: Chinese slowdown restrains Texas exports