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Author:Waddell, Sonya Ravindranath 

Introducing the CFO Survey

For almost 25 years, the Duke CFO Global Business Outlook has provided policymakers, academics, and the public with an understanding of how financial executives view the economy and prospects for their business. Today, three partners—Duke University's Fuqua School of Business, the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, and the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta—announce an enhanced iteration of this survey, now called the CFO Survey. Starting with the second-quarter data release on July 8, 2020, the CFO Survey will offer the same crucial information about the economic outlook and, through some ...

Discussion Paper
COVID-19: Unemployment Claims and Unemployment in Virginia

Over the course of three weeks (from March 15 to April 4), more than 360,000 Virginians filed for unemployment. What does this mean for other employment measures and where might we see Virginia's unemployment rate go?
Regional Matters

Discussion Paper
The Coronavirus and Firms in the Fifth District: As of March 2020

On March 13, 2020, the President declared a national state of emergency and by March 16, every state and the District of Columbia had declared states of emergency, all due to the rapid escalation of positive cases of COVID-19. However, Fifth District firms were reporting impacts from the virus before the emergency declarations and the initiation of social distancing mandates in states and localities across the country.
Regional Matters

Discussion Paper
The COVID-19 Pandemic and the Fifth District Economy

As the COVID-19 pandemic spreads across the country, Americans are taking measures to distance themselves from their communities, both voluntarily and by mandate. What measures have Fifth District jurisdictions taken and what might this mean for the Fifth District economy?
Regional Matters

Journal Article
Monitoring Economic Activity in Real Time Using Diffusion Indices: Evidence from the Fifth District

We provide an analysis that parses out the conditions under which diffusion indices based on disaggregated information are informative about overall economic activity. Building on work by Pinto, Sarte, and Sharp (2015), we highlight the fact that diffusion indices, appropriately scaled, capture contributions of changes in the extensive margin -- e.g. how many sectors are growing or declining rather than by how much individual sectors are growing or declining -- to aggregate growth. In the Fifth Federal Reserve District, for example, this margin captures the bulk of variations in aggregate ...
Economic Quarterly , Issue 4Q , Pages 275-301

Journal Article
The Urban Core in the Tale of Three Cities

The Fifth District economy ? like the U.S. economy ? is increasingly driven by urban areas. In 2016, over 90 percent of U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) was attributable to metropolitan statistical areas, or MSAs, while they occupied just under 50 percent of the nation's land mass. This is not a new phenomenon, but it remains an important one.
Econ Focus , Issue 2Q , Pages 36-39

Journal Article
The Richmond Fed at 100 Years

Econ Focus , Issue 1Q , Pages 36-39

Journal Article
The Opioid Epidemic, the Fifth District, and the Labor Force

Economic Trends Across the Region looks at the Opioid Epidemic, the Fifth District, and the Labor Force.
Econ Focus , Issue 2Q , Pages 32-35

Journal Article
District digest : Economic trends across the region

Econ Focus , Volume 13 , Issue Win , Pages 48-55

Journal Article
A regional look at the role of house prices and labor market conditions in mortgage default

A linear fixed effects statistical model is used to study variations in foreclosure rates across metropolitan statistical areas in the Fifth Federal Reserve District. We find that variations in local labor market conditions and house prices do a remarkable job of capturing variation in foreclosure rates. We study the regional variation in foreclosure rates in more detail by examining two localities in our district: Prince William County, Virginia, and Charlotte, North Carolina. Finally, the model is used to provide forecasts of foreclosure rates conditioned on possible paths of labor market ...
Economic Quarterly , Volume 97 , Issue 1Q , Pages 1-43


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