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Showing results 1 to 10 of approximately 12.
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Working Paper
Monetary Policy Options at the Effective Lower Bound : Assessing the Federal Reserve's Current Policy Toolkit
We simulate the FRB/US model and a number of statistical models to quantify some of the risks stemming from the effective lower bound (ELB) on the federal funds rate and to assess the efficacy of adjustments to the federal funds rate target, balance sheet policies, and forward guidance to provide monetary policy accommodation in the event of a recession. Over the next decade, our simulations imply a roughly 20 to 50 percent probability that the federal funds rate will be constrained by the ELB at some point. We also find that forward guidance and balance sheet polices of the kinds used in ...
Journal Article
Is more still better? Revisiting the Sixth District Coincident Indicator
A revised version of the D6 Factor model of the southeastern economy is better than the original at describing contemporary economic activity and allows for historical comparisons across several business cycles.
Journal Article
A falling dollar : good or bad news?
Against some other major currencies around the world, the value of the U.S. dollar has dropped considerably in recent years. Whether it helps or harms the U.S. economy is a matter of perspective.
Discussion Paper
Remittances and COVID-19: A Tale of Two Countries
Looking at the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on workers’ remittances flowing from the United States, this article focuses on the experiences of two countries, El Salvador and Mexico, which account for approximately 30 percent of all immigrants currently residing in the United States. Following the second quarter’s economic lockdown, transfers to these countries experienced perplexing dynamics. Specifically, remittances to El Salvador witnessed a record 40 percent sudden drop, while Mexico recorded an unexpected 35 percent increase. We discuss some of the narratives proposed to explain ...
Journal Article
Should we worry about the inverted yield curve?
Discussion Paper
Remittances and COVID-19: A Tale of Two Countries
Looking at the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on workers' remittances flowing from the United States, this article focuses on the experiences of two countries, El Salvador and Mexico, which account for approximately 30 percent of all immigrants currently residing in the United States. Following the second quarter's economic lockdown, transfers to these countries experienced perplexing dynamics. Specifically, remittances to El Salvador witnessed a record 40 percent sudden drop, while Mexico recorded an unexpected 35 percent increase. We discuss some of the narratives proposed to explain this ...
Journal Article
The evolution and implications of the U.S. current account deficit
The global economy has focused increasing attention on the U.S. current account deficit. Placing this economic measurement in perspective is central to understanding its potential effects.
Journal Article
When more is better: assessing the southeastern economy with lots of data
The authors estimate a model that provides a single indicator for the southeastern economy, making it easier for policymakers and analysts to assess regional economic conditions and compare them to the broader economy.
Discussion Paper
A New Procedure for Generating the Stochastic Simulations in FRB/US
This note summarizes a new procedure for generating stochastic simulations in FRB/US, a large-scale estimated general equilibrium macroeconomic model of the U.S. economy, which has been in use at the Federal Reserve Board since 1996. In the first part of this note, we contrast some features of the original stochastic simulations procedure with those of the data. In the second part, we offer an alternative to the original procedure that fits the data better along core dimensions of interest.
Working Paper
Investment-specific technology shocks and international business cycles: an empirical assessment
In this paper, we first introduce investment-specific technology (IST) shocks into an otherwise standard international real business cycle model and show that a thoughtful calibration of them along the lines of Raffo (2009) successfully addresses several of the existing puzzles in the literature. In particular, we obtain a negative correlation of relative consumption and the terms of trade (Backus-Smith puzzle), as well as a more volatile real exchange rate, and cross-country output correlations that are higher than consumption correlations (price and quantity puzzles). Then we use data from ...