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Journal Article
Peas in a pod? Comparing the U.S. and Danish mortgage finance systems
Berg, Jesper; Vickery, James; Nielsen, Morten Bækmand (2018-24-03)
Like the United States, Denmark relies heavily on capital markets for funding residential mortgages, and its covered bond market bears a number of similarities to U.S. agency securitization. This article describes the key features of the Danish mortgage finance system and compares and contrasts them with those of the U.S. system. In addition, it highlights characteristics of the Danish model that may be of interest as the United States considers further mortgage finance reform. In particular, the Danish system includes features that mitigate refinancing frictions during periods of falling ...
Economic Policy Review , Issue 24-3 , Pages 63-87

Discussion Paper
How Is Technology Changing the Mortgage Market?
Vickery, James; Fuster, Andreas; Plosser, Matthew (2018-06-25)
The adoption of new technologies is transforming the mortgage industry. For instance, borrowers can now obtain a mortgage entirely online, and lenders use increasingly sophisticated methods to verify borrower income and assets. In a recent staff report, we present evidence suggesting that technology is reducing frictions in mortgage lending, such as reducing the time it takes to originate a mortgage, and increasing the elasticity of mortgage supply. These benefits do not seem to come at the cost of less careful screening of borrowers.
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20180625

Journal Article
Credit risk transfer and de facto GSE reform
Strzodka, Andreas; Vickery, James; Finkelstein, David (2018-24-03)
The Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac credit risk transfer (CRT) programs, now in their fifth year, shift a portion of credit risk on more than $1.8 trillion of mortgages to private-sector investors. This study summarizes and evaluates the CRT programs, finding that they have been successful in reducing the exposure of the government-sponsored enterprises and the federal government to mortgage credit risk without disrupting the liquidity or stability of mortgage secondary markets. The programs have also created a new financial market for pricing and trading mortgage credit risk, which has grown in ...
Economic Policy Review , Issue 24-3 , Pages 88-116

Working Paper
Intermediation Frictions in Debt Relief: Evidence from CARES Act Forbearance
Kim, You Suk; Lee, Donghoon; Scharlemann, Tess C.; Vickery, James (2022-03-31)
We study the role of mortgage servicers in implementing the CARES Act mortgage forbearance program during the COVID-19 pandemic. Despite universal eligibility,we document that a significant number of federally backed mortgage borrowers be-come delinquent during the pandemic without successfully entering into a forbearance program, and that the relative frequency of these "missing" forbearances varies significantly across mortgage servicers for otherwise identical loans. Forbearance out-comes are systematically related to servicer characteristics including size, liquidity and ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 2022-017

Report
TBA trading and liquidity in the agency MBS market
Wright, Joshua; Vickery, James (2010)
Most mortgages in the United States are securitized through the agency mortgage-backed-securities (MBS) market. These securities are generally traded on a ?to-be-announced,? or TBA, basis. This trading convention significantly improves agency MBS liquidity, leading to lower borrowing costs for households. Evaluation of potential reforms to the U.S. housing finance system should take into account the effects of those reforms on the operation of the TBA market.
Staff Reports , Paper 468

Discussion Paper
The Dodd-Frank Act’s Potential Effects on the Credit Rating Industry
Vickery, James (2012-02-15)
Credit rating agencies have been widely criticized in recent years for the poor performance of their ratings on mortgage-backed securities (MBS) and other structured-finance bonds. In response to the concerns of investors and other market participants, the 2010 Dodd-Frank Act incorporates a range of reforms likely to significantly reshape the rating industry. In this post, we discuss these reforms and their implications for investors, regulators, and the rating agencies themselves.
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20120215

Report
Securitization and the fixed-rate mortgage
Vickery, James; Fuster, Andreas (2013)
Fixed-rate mortgages (FRMs) dominate the U.S. mortgage market, with important consequences for monetary policy, household risk management, and financial stability. In this paper, we show that the share of FRMs is sharply lower when mortgages are difficult to securitize. Our analysis exploits plausibly exogenous variation in access to liquid securitization markets generated by a regulatory cutoff and time variation in private securitization activity. We interpret our findings as evidence that lenders are reluctant to retain the prepayment and interest rate risk embedded in FRMs. The form of ...
Staff Reports , Paper 594

Report
Credit risk transfer and de facto GSE reform
Strzodka, Andreas; Vickery, James; Finkelstein, David (2018-02-01)
We summarize and evaluate Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac?s credit risk transfer (CRT) programs, which have been used since 2013 to shift a portion of credit risk on more than $1.8 trillion of mortgages to private sector investors. We argue that the CRT programs have been successful in reducing the exposure of the federal government to mortgage credit risk without disrupting the liquidity or stability of mortgage secondary markets. In the process, the programs have created a new financial market for pricing and trading mortgage credit risk, which has grown in size and liquidity over time. The CRT ...
Staff Reports , Paper 838

Report
Regulation and risk shuffling in bank securities portfolios
Fuster, Andreas; Vickery, James (2018-06-01)
Bank capital requirements are based on a mix of market values and book values. We investigate the effects of a policy change that ties regulatory capital to the market value of the ?available-for-sale" investment securities portfolio for some banking organizations. Our analysis is based on security-level data on individual bank portfolios matched to bond characteristics. We find little clear evidence that banks respond by reducing the riskiness of their securities portfolios, although there is some evidence of a greater use of derivatives to hedge securities exposures. Instead, banks respond ...
Staff Reports , Paper 851

Discussion Paper
Are Banks Being Roiled by Oil?
Vickery, James; Thomas, Lauren; Velasquez, Ulysses (2016-10-24)
Profits and employment in the oil and natural gas extraction industry have fallen significantly since 2014, reflecting a sustained decline in energy prices. In this post, we look at how these tremors are affecting banks that operate in energy industry?intensive regions of the United States. We find that banks in the ?oil patch? have experienced a significant rise in delinquencies on commercial and industrial loans. So far though, there appears to be limited evidence of spillovers to other types of loans and no evidence of widespread bank losses or failures in these regions.
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20161024

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