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Author:Valletta, Robert G. 

Journal Article
Job matching: evidence from the Beveridge curve

This Economic Letter examines the evidence on long-term shifts in the speed and efficiency of job matching in U.S. labor markets by using the so-called Beveridge curve. The Beveridge curve is an empirical measure of the relationship between the job vacancy rate and the unemployment rate. Changes in the job-matching process suggested by movements in the Beveridge curve, and their implications for U.S. labor market performance, have not been extensively analyzed, due in part to the absence of consistent data on job vacancies over a long time period. In this Economic Letter, we utilize new data ...
FRBSF Economic Letter

Journal Article
Is structural unemployment on the rise?

An increase in U.S. aggregate labor demand reflected in rising job vacancies has not been accompanied by a similar decline in the unemployment rate. Some analysts maintain that unemployed workers lack the skills to fill available jobs, a mismatch that contributes to an elevated level of structural unemployment. However, analysis of data on employment growth and jobless rates across industries, occupations, and states suggests only a limited increase in structural unemployment, indicating that cyclical factors account for most of the rise in the unemployment rate.
FRBSF Economic Letter

Journal Article
Finding a Soft Landing along the Beveridge Curve

As U.S. economic growth slows this year, a key question is whether job openings can fall from historical highs without a substantial rise in unemployment. Analyzing the current Beveridge curve relationship between unemployment and job openings presents a meaningful possibility that labor market pressures can ease and achieve a “soft landing” with only a limited increase in unemployment. This view is supported by high rates of job matching in the U.S. labor market in 2022, despite ongoing employment reallocation across industries.
Economic Review , Volume 2022 , Issue 24 , Pages 6

Journal Article
The minimum wage

FRBSF Economic Letter

Working Paper
The ins and outs of poverty in advanced economies: poverty dynamics in Canada, Germany, Great Britain, and the United States

Comparative analysis of poverty dynamics?incidence, transitions, and persistence?can yield important insights about the nature of poverty and the effectiveness of alternative policy responses. This manuscript compares poverty dynamics in four advanced industrial countries (Canada, unified Germany, Great Britain, and the United States) for overlapping six-year periods in the 1990s. The data indicate that poverty persistence is higher in North America than in Europe; for example, despite high incidence, poverty in Great Britain is relatively transitory. Most poverty transitions, and the ...
Working Paper Series , Paper 2004-18

Working Paper
The Economic Status of People with Disabilities and their Families since the Great Recession

People with disabilities face substantial barriers to sustained employment and stable, adequateincome. We assess how they and their families fared during the long economic expansion thatfollowed the Great Recession of 2007-09, using data from the monthly Current PopulationSurvey (CPS) and the March CPS annual income supplement. We find that the expansionbolstered the well-being of people with disabilities and in particular their relative labor marketengagement. We also find that applications and awards for federal disability benefits fell duringthe expansion. On balance, our results suggest ...
Working Paper Series , Paper 2021-05

Journal Article
Educational attainment, unemployment, and wage inflation

We investigate the impact of rising educational attainment on wage inflation and the equilibrium (non-inflationary) rate of unemployment. Rising educational attainment may reduce wage pressures by shifting the composition of the labor force towards groups with lower equilibrium unemployment rates, or it may increase wage pressures through increased reliance on groups whose wages are relatively responsive to changes in unemployment. A measure of aggregate unemployment adjusted for changes in the age and education structure of the labor force performs well in Phillips curve estimates of the ...
Economic Review

Journal Article
Has job security in the U.S. declined?

FRBSF Economic Letter

Journal Article
Employer health benefits and insurance expansions: Hawaii's experience

As policies are proposed to expand health insurance coverage in the United States, it is useful to focus on the experience of Hawaii, where employers are required to offer such insurance to their full-time employees. Our findings suggest that Hawaii?s law has substantially increased health insurance coverage in the state, although the impact has been partially offset by employers' increased reliance on the exempt class of employees who work fewer than 20 hours per week.
FRBSF Economic Letter

Journal Article
Help-wanted advertising and job vacancies

Due to its reliance on newspaper advertising, the help-wanted index is an indirect measure of job vacancies. However, the level of job advertisements appearing in newspapers may change for reasons that are unrelated to overall labor demand. For example, equal employment opportunity laws raised the level of newspaper job advertising in the 1960s and 1970s, while internet job advertising has served as an increasingly effective substitute for newspaper advertising in recent years. In this Economic Letter, I discuss how the help-wanted index can be adjusted for such factors, yielding a more ...
FRBSF Economic Letter

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