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Author:Uctum, Merih 

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Money markets and common monetary policy in France, Germany and Italy

Research Paper , Paper 9212

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European integration and asymmetry in the EMS

The empirical literature offers conflicting views of German dominance in the European Monetary System. We examine the validity of the German dominance hypothesis (GDH) by analyzing the responses of the European central banks and the money markets to monetary innovations originating both in Europe (European asymmetry) and abroad (international asymmetry). Our results reconcile the conflicting views in the literature. The GDH is confirmed when the analysis is conducted with intervention rates before the German unification. Results support European asymmetry with short rates before 1990 but not ...
Research Paper , Paper 9605

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Debt and deficit ceilings, and sustainability of fiscal policies: an intertemporal analysis

In this paper, we examine the likely consequences for the sustainability of fiscal policy of pursuing goals that rely on restrictive ceilings on deficits and debt. We provide a formal theoretical framework for analyzing the sustainability of fiscal policy based on the government intertemporal budget constraint and derive conditions that determine whether a given fiscal stance is sustainable. This framework generalizes the existing literature in several important respects. We allow for time-varying interest rates, for the primary deficit to be endogenous, for a finite planning horizon suitable ...
Research Paper , Paper 9615

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Fiscal consolidation in Europe

The Maastricht Treaty imposes constraints on fiscal policy that will last beyond the formation of EMU. However, the fiscal requirements are determined in an ad hoc way, and do not consider the position of the countries in the business cycle, nor the medium-term planning horizons of the governments. In this paper, we revisit the concept of "sustainability" of deficits announced in the treaty. After discussing the cyclical and the structural aspects of total deficits that occurred until 1994, we use an intertemporal, forward-looking approach to evaluate the fiscal stands of the countries ...
Research Paper , Paper 9519

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The evolution and determinants of corporate profits: an international comparison

This paper compares the trends and determinants of U.S. profits with those of Japan, Germany and Canada in a model of pricing-to-market in the export and domestic markets. We find that (I) all countries exhibit a negative-trended profit share; (ii) pass-through is incomplete for all countries, and exchange rate elasticities are larger in smaller countries; (iii) a currency appreciation hurts U.S. profits and helps Japanese profits via imported inputs channel; (iv) during the 1970s unit production costs lowered profits in all countries. After 1980, cost factors still affected profits except in ...
Research Paper , Paper 9502

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A critical evaluation of exchange rate policy in Turkey

Research Paper , Paper 9116

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Europe and the Maastricht challenge

The uncertainty caused by the exchange rate crises of 1992-93 led to two questions: Is monetary union still feasible? What strategies are best for achieving convergence according to the Maastricht criteria? This article addresses these questions by examining the progress made by the five major European Union countries in satisfying the Maastricht criteria and the two crucial impediments facing these countries--disparities in real exchange rate convergence and fiscal imbalances--and alternative strategies to deal with these impediments. Overall, our analysis suggests that the prospects for ...
Research Paper , Paper 9616

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