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Journal Article
Deferred cash compensation: enhancing stability in the financial services industry
Mehran, Hamid; Tracy, Joseph (2016-08)
Employees in financial firms are compensated for creating value for the firm, but firms themselves also serve a public interest. This tension can lead to issues that could impose a significant risk to the firm and the public. The authors describe three channels through which deferred cash compensation can mitigate such risk: by promoting a conservative approach to risk, by inducing internal monitoring, and by creating a liquidity buffer. Ultimately, the net contribution of deferred cash pay to financial stability is the sum of the effects of the three channels. The authors argue that a ...
Economic Policy Review , Issue Aug , Pages 61-75

Discussion Paper
Who’s on First? Characteristics of First-Time Homebuyers
Tracy, Joseph; Lee, Donghoon (2019-04-10)
In our previous post, we presented a new measure of first-time homebuyers. In this post, we use this improved measure to describe the characteristics of first-time buyers and how those characteristics change over time. Having an accurate assessment of first-time buyers is important given that the aim of many housing policies is to support the transition from renting to owning. A proper assessment of these housing policies requires an understanding of the impact of these policies on the share of first-time buyers and the characteristics of these buyers. Our third post will directly examine ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20190410

Working Paper
Heterogeneity and the Effects of Aggregation on Wage Growth
Rich, Robert W.; Tracy, Joseph (2022-08-02)
This paper focuses on the implications of alternative methods of aggregating individual wage data for the behavior of economy-wide wage growth. The analysis is motivated by evidence of significant heterogeneity in individual wage growth and its cyclicality. Because of this heterogeneity, the choice of aggregation will affect the properties of economy-wide wage growth measures. To assess the importance of this consideration, we provide a decomposition of wage growth into aggregation effects and composition effects and use the decomposition to compare growth in an average wage—specifically ...
Working Papers , Paper 2211

U.S. Labor Market Slack Created by COVID-19 Pandemic Has Been Absorbed
Howard, Sean; Rich, Robert W.; Tracy, Joseph (2021-10-07)
The weaker-than-expected August labor market report should not obscure the labor market’s ongoing and significant progress while recovering from the COVID-19 pandemic.
Dallas Fed Economics

Journal Article
Stocks in the household portfolio: a look back at the 1990s
Tracy, Joseph; Schneider, Henry (2001-04)
The growing prominence of stocks as a household asset in the 1990s encouraged the view that the United States had become a nation of zealous investors alert to every market development and eager to acquire new stocks. Yet an analysis of the factors behind the rise in the household equity share suggests that exceptionally high returns on stocks_rather than aggressive investment behavior_accounted for much of the increased importance of stocks.
Current Issues in Economics and Finance , Volume 7 , Issue Apr

Journal Article
A look at real housing prices and incomes: some implications for housing affordability and quality
Tracy, Joseph; Gyourko, Joseph (1999-09)
This paper was presented at the conference "Unequal incomes, unequal outcomes? Economic inequality and measures of well-being" as part of session 2, " Affordability of housing for young and poor families." The conference was held at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York on May 7, 1999. The authors report that the cost of good housing has risen for low-income individuals. The National Association of Realtors affordability index shows that affordability conditions are better today than at any time in the past twenty-five years. However, Gyourko and Tracy's analysis suggests that this ...
Economic Policy Review , Volume 5 , Issue Sep , Pages 63-77

Report
The relationship between expected inflation, disagreement, and uncertainty: evidence from matched point and density forecasts
Rich, Robert W.; Tracy, Joseph (2006-07-01)
This paper examines matched point and density forecasts of inflation from the Survey of Professional Forecasters to analyze the relationship between expected inflation, disagreement, and uncertainty. We extend previous studies through our data construction and estimation methodology. Specifically, we derive measures of disagreement and uncertainty by using a decomposition proposed in earlier research by Wallis and by applying the concept of entropy from information theory. We also undertake the empirical analysis within a seemingly unrelated regression framework. Our results offer mixed ...
Staff Reports , Paper 253

Working Paper
A Closer Look at the Behavior of Uncertainty and Disagreement: Micro Evidence from the Euro Area
Tracy, Joseph; Rich, Robert W. (2018-09-28)
This paper examines point and density forecasts of real GDP growth, inflation and unemployment from the European Central Bank?s Survey of Professional Forecasters. We present individual uncertainty measures and introduce individual point- and density-based measures of disagreement. The data indicate substantial heterogeneity and persistence in respondents? uncertainty and disagreement, with uncertainty associated with prominent respondent effects and disagreement associated with prominent time effects. We also examine the co-movement between uncertainty and disagreement and find an ...
Working Papers (Old Series) , Paper 1813

Journal Article
Are stocks overtaking real estate in household portfolios?
Tracy, Joseph; Schneider, Henry; Chan, Sewin (1999-04)
The rapid growth of the stock market since 1990 has encouraged the view that corporate equity holdings are becoming the primary asset for a broad spectrum of American households. A closer look at the evidence, however, reveals that real estate continues to eclipse stocks as a share of most households' portfolios.
Current Issues in Economics and Finance , Volume 5 , Issue Apr

Report
Housing busts and household mobility
Tracy, Joseph; Gyourko, Joseph; Ferreira, Fernando (2008)
Using two decades of American Housing Survey data from 1985 to 2005, we estimate the influence of negative home equity and rising mortgage interest rates on household mobility. We find that both factors lead to lower, not higher, mobility rates over time. The effects are economically large -- mobility is almost 50 percent lower for owners with negative equity in their homes. This finding does not imply that current concerns over defaults and homeowners having to relocate are entirely misplaced. It does indicate that, in the past, the mortgage lock-in effects of these two factors were dominant ...
Staff Reports , Paper 350

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