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Discussion Paper
What Has Driven the Labor Force Participation Gap since February 2020?
Amiti, Mary; Heise, Sebastian; Topa, Giorgio; Wu, Julia (2023-03-30)
The U.S. labor force participation rate (LFPR) currently stands at 62.5 percent, 0.8 percentage point below its level in February 2020. This “participation gap” translates into 2.1 million workers out of the labor force. In this post, we evaluate three potential drivers of the gap: First, population aging from the baby boomers reaching retirement age puts downward pressure on participation. Second, the share of individuals of retirement age that are actually retired has risen since the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic. Finally, long COVID and disability more generally may induce more people ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20230330

Journal Article
Urban dynamics in New York City: conference overview and summary of papers
Topa, Giorgio; Groshen, Erica L. (2005-12)
These articles were presented at a conference organized by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York in April 2005, "Urban Dynamics in New York City." The goal of the conference was threefold: to examine the historical transformations of the engine-of-growth industries in New York and distill the main determinants of the city's historical dominance as well as the challenges to its continued success; to study the nature and evolution of immigration flows into New York; and to analyze recent trends in a range of socioeconomic outcomes, both for the general population and recent immigrants more ...
Economic Policy Review , Issue Dec , Pages 1-4

Discussion Paper
Who Is Driving the Recent Decline in Consumers Inflation Expectations?
Armantier, Olivier; Zafar, Basit; Topa, Giorgio; Van der Klaauw, Wilbert (2016-01-05)
The expectations of U.S. consumers about inflation have declined to record lows over the past several months. That is the finding of two leading surveys, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s Survey of Consumer Expectations (SCE) and the University of Michigan’s Survey of Consumers (SoC). In this post, we examine whether this decline is broad-based or whether it is driven by specific demographic groups.
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20160105

Discussion Paper
Searching for Higher Wages
Kapon, Samuel; Topa, Giorgio; Pilossoph, Laura; Sahin, Aysegul; Armona, Luis (2015-09-02)
Since the peak of the recession, the unemployment rate has fallen by almost 5 percentage points, and observers continue to focus on whether and when this decline will lead to robust wage growth. Typically, in the wake of such a decline, real wages grow since there is more competition for workers among potential employers. While this relationship has historically been quite informative, real wage growth more recently has not been commensurate with observed declines in the unemployment rate.
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20150902

Discussion Paper
Introducing the FRBNY Survey of Consumer Expectations: Survey Goals, Design and Content
Armantier, Olivier; Zafar, Basit; Van der Klaauw, Wilbert; Topa, Giorgio (2013-12-04)
Starting in the first quarter of 2014, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York (FRBNY) will begin reporting findings from a new national survey designed to elicit consumers? expectations for a wide range of household-level and aggregate economic and financial conditions. This week, we provide an introduction to the new survey in a series of four blog posts. In this first post, we discuss the overall objectives of the new survey, its sample design, and content. In the posts that follow, we will provide further details and present preliminary findings from the survey on three broad categories of ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20131204b

Discussion Paper
Consumers’ Perspectives on the Recent Movements in Inflation
Aidala, Felix; Armantier, Olivier; Boumahdi, Fatima; Koşar, Gizem; Lall, Devon; Somerville, Jason; Topa, Giorgio; Van der Klaauw, Wilbert (2023-08-17)
Inflation in the U.S. has experienced unusually large movements in the last few years, starting with a steep rise between the spring of 2021 and June 2022, followed by a relatively rapid decline over the past twelve months. This marks a stark departure from an extended period of low and stable inflation. Economists and policymakers have expressed differing views about which factors contributed to these large movements (as reported in the media here, here, here, and here), leading to fierce debates in policy circles, academic journals, and the press. We know little, however, about the ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20230817

Discussion Paper
How Much Is Priced In? Market Expectations for FOMC Rate Hikes from Different Angles
Huwiler, Marco; Topa, Giorgio; Bush, Ryan; LeSueur, Eric (2017-11-30)
It is essential for policymakers and financial market participants to understand market expectations for the path of future policy rates because these expectations can have important implications for financial markets and the broader economy. In this post?which is meant to complement prior Liberty Street Economics posts, including Crump et al. (2014a, 2014b ) and Brodsky et al. (2016a, 2016b)?we offer some insights into estimating and interpreting market expectations for increases in the federal funds target range at upcoming meetings of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC).
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20171130

Discussion Paper
How Do People Revise Their Inflation Expectations?
Armantier, Olivier; Zafar, Basit; Topa, Giorgio; Van der Klaauw, Wilbert (2016-08-22)
The New York Fed started releasing results from its Survey of Consumer Expectations (SCE) three years ago, in June 2013. The SCE is a monthly, nationally representative, internet-based survey of a rotating panel of about 1,300 household heads. Its goal, as described in a series of Liberty Street Economics posts, is to collect timely and high-quality information on consumer expectations about a broad range of topics, covering both macroeconomic variables and the households' own situation. In this post, we look at what drives changes in consumer inflation expectations. Do people respond to ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20160822

Discussion Paper
Coronavirus Outbreak Sends Consumer Expectations Plummeting
Armantier, Olivier; Koşar, Gizem; Topa, Giorgio; Skandalis, Daphne; Smith, Kyle; Van der Klaauw, Wilbert; Pomerantz, Rachel (2020-04-06)
The New York Fed’s Center for Microeconomic Data released results today from its March 2020 Survey of Consumer Expectations (SCE), which provides information on consumers' economic expectations and behavior. In particular, the survey covers respondents’ views on how income, spending, inflation, credit access, and housing and labor market conditions will evolve over time. The March survey, which was fielded between March 2 and 31, records a substantial deterioration in financial and economic expectations, including sharp declines in household income and spending growth expectations. As ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20200406b

Journal Article
Improving survey measures of household inflation expectations
Topa, Giorgio; Potter, Simon M.; Bruine de Bruin, Wändi; Rich, Robert W.; Van der Klaauw, Wilbert (2010-08)
Expectations about future inflation are generally thought to play an important role in households' decisions about spending and saving. They are also of great interest to central bankers, who take them into account when determining policy or assessing the effectiveness of communications with the public. To help improve existing survey measures of inflation expectations, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York recently joined with other institutions and academic consultants to develop a set of survey questions that will yield more reliable information on households' inflation expectations, ...
Current Issues in Economics and Finance , Volume 16 , Issue Aug/Sep

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