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Journal Article
Commodity futures investing: method to the madness
Just as there are popular indexes that measure the value of groups of stocks, such as the Dow Jones industrial average, there are indexes that do the same for commodity futures.
AUTHORS: Plante, Michael D.; Thies, Jackson
DATE: 2012
Journal Article
Market expectations and corn prices: looking into future to explain present
Market expectations of future supply and demand are important in determining current prices for agricultural products such as corn, which are harvested annually and stored for later use. Prices can quickly move when beliefs change?due to new data, for example?even if events far in the future are involved.
AUTHORS: Thies, Jackson; Plante, Michael D.
DATE: 2012
Journal Article
What drives diesel fuel prices?
Historically, gasoline has commanded a premium over diesel, but that changed in mid-to-late 2007, when diesel rose above gasoline. In 2007 and 2008, however, gasoline traded higher than diesel only 21.1 percent of the time. This deviation from historic norms raises an interesting question--what drives diesel prices? As with virtually all petroleum-derived products, the story begins with oil prices. Seasonal patterns also play a significant role. Demand for a range of oil-based products changes with the weather, and prices fluctuate as refiners adjust their output mix. Government regulations are another source of price variability. Earlier this decade, new standards aimed at reducing diesel fuel's sulfur content required further processing that increased refinery costs and prices for consumers. Finally, short-term changes in supply and demand--including imports--factor into pricing on a day-to-day basis. Our model suggests that spot diesel should rise 25 cents a gallon over the next six months and 41 cents a gallon over the next 18 months.
AUTHORS: Brown, Stephen P. A.; Thies, Jackson
DATE: 2009
Journal Article
Noteworthy: Gulf oil spill: Costs of well disaster still piling up
British Petroleum's Macondo well blew out April 20 as the Deepwater Horizon platform sunk. By the time the well was capped on July 15, an estimated 4.9 million barrels of oil had flowed into the Gulf of Mexico. The U.S. government and BP are still assembling a definitive estimate of the flow; the final figure is likely to be a source of contention because it will be the basis for determining financial penalties.
AUTHORS: Thies, Jackson
DATE: 2010-10
Journal Article
Noteworthy: natural gas: glitches point to inflated output data
Natural gas production and consumption data have been drifting apart. Production should equal consumption plus increases or decreases in storage, but sampling and estimation errors typically result in slight discrepancies. Seeing these gaps rise, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) implemented a new methodology with the release of February's production data that should ensure greater accuracy. Estimates for the prior 12 months were revised as well.
AUTHORS: Thies, Jackson
DATE: 2010-04
Journal Article
Sizing up nanoelectronics: gauging the potential for new productivity wave
The Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, in cooperation with the Semiconductor Industry Association (SIA), hosted a conference on nanoelectronics and the economy in Austin on Dec. 3, 2010. Economists and scientists explored how information technology has affected U.S. productivity and output growth and prospects for the future.
AUTHORS: Thies, Jackson; Swadley, Adam; Phillips, Keith R.; Mine Yücel
DATE: 2011-04
Journal Article
Noteworthy: dairy squeeze: low prices, high costs hit Texas industry
Production of more than 7 billion pounds a year makes milk one of Texas' top 10 agricultural commodities. However, 2009 is shaping up to be a tough year for the state's dairy producers.
AUTHORS: Thies, Jackson
DATE: 2009-04
Journal Article
Noteworthy: commercial real estate: recession takes toll, banks put at risk
Texas' commercial real estate market steadily worsened as recession took hold in 2009. Commercial real estate's woes don't bode well for banks already struggling with losses from residential loans. The number of distressed properties--those in foreclosure, in bankruptcy or restructured--is rising.
AUTHORS: Thies, Jackson
DATE: 2009-10
Journal Article
Oil and gas rises again in a diversified Texas
The oil and gas industry has been a driver of the Texas economy for the past 40 years. Its contribution declined with the oil-led recession of 1986 and appeared to slip further in the 1990s as the high-tech industry boomed. But oil and natural gas prices have risen since 1999, reaching record highs in 2008. This resurgence has boosted energy activity and factored into the recent economic recovery in Texas, affirming the industry?s long-held prominence in the state. ; An econometric model developed by the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas documents the state?s evolving energy fortunes since the late 1990s. It shows that the industry is still contributing positively to Texas output and employment, though in a less-pronounced way than during the prior oil boom 30 years ago.
AUTHORS: Thies, Jackson; Mine K. Yücel
DATE: 2011-01
Working Paper
Understanding the risks inherent in shadow banking: a primer and practical lessons learned
Examinations of the 2007?09 financial crisis often use the term shadow banking. This paper explains the form and functioning of the shadow banking system, how it relates to systemic risk and the recent financial crisis, and what particular aspects should be highlighted to benefit policymakers as they implement new regulations designed to enhance financial market resiliency. The paper is divided into two parts: The first serves as a primer on shadow banking; the second provides a narrative of how the system froze during the financial crisis and pertinent lessons learned for the current reform effort.
AUTHORS: Thies, Jackson; Luttrell, David; Rosenblum, Harvey
DATE: 2012-11