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Working Paper
The P-star approach to the link between money and prices
This paper examines several specification errors in the M2-based P* model and develops an M1-based estimate of this model. The apparent statistical significance of M2 is shown to arise from a spurious regression that uses a non-stationary regressor and because the significance test for M2 is biased by including the influence of a lagged dependent variable whose coefficient is not normally distributed. When these problems are addressed, M2 is not statistically significant related to the price level. The M1-based P* model exhibits a significant relationship between M1 and the price level, ...
Working Paper
Currency appreciation and \"deindustrialization\": a European perspective
During the 1980s, policy advisers were successful in promoting the view that movements in the value of the dollar have an inverse relationship to U.S. international competitiveness. This article explains their hypothesis, as well as the counterargument that exchange rates positively reflect a country's competitiveness. Economic policies that boost competitiveness also raise the value of the domestic currency. The mirror image of these hypotheses apply to U.S. trading partners, including Europe. The evidence indicates that European countries were not "deindustralized" from 1985 to 1990, when ...
Working Paper
Are energy prices cyclical?
Journal Article
Does the stage of the business cycle affect the inflation rate?
Journal Article
The welfare cost of inflation
Working Paper
Energy price shocks in a reduced-form monetarist model
Journal Article
Potential output and the recent productivity decline