Credit crunch or what? Australian banks during the 1986–93 credit cycle
There is ongoing debate about how the banking sector's financial condition affects the supply of credit to business and, ultimately, general macroeconomic conditions. The United States does not generate sufficient data to provide satisfactory answers to these questions, given the low frequency of credit cycles. However, the experiences of other developed countries may provide additional insight. This article investigates the 1986-93 credit cycle in Australia. A comparison of key differences and similarities between the U.S. and Australian banking systems allows a useful analysis of the ...
Close but not a central bank: The New York Clearing House and issues of clearing house loan certificates
The paper examines the New York Clearing House (NYCH) as a lender of last resort by looking at clearing-house-loan-certificate borrowing during five banking panics of the National Banking Era (1863?1913). In that system, adequate aggregate liquidity provision was passive and dependent upon member bank borrowing. We document bank borrowing behavior using bank-level data for clearing-house loan certifi cates issued to NYCH member banks. The historical record reveals that the large New York City banks behaved in ways that resembled those of a central bank in 1884 and in 1890, but less so in the ...
New York and the politics of central banks, 1781 to the Federal Reserve Act
The paper provides a brief history of central banking institutions in the United States. Specifically, the authors highlight the role of New York banking interests in the legislations affecting the creation or expiration of central banking institutions. In our previous research we have detected that New York City banking entities usually exert substantial influence on legislation, greater than their large proportion of United States? banking resources. The authors describe how this influence affected the success or failure of central banking movements in the United States, and the authors use ...
Liquidity provision during the crisis of 1914: private and public sources
Caught between the end of the National Banking Era and the beginning of the Federal Reserve System, the crisis of 1914 provides an example of a banking panic avoided. We investigate how this outcome was achieved by examining data on the issues of Aldrich-Vreeland emergency currency and clearing house loan certificates to New York City institutions that identify borrower and quantity requested for each type of temporary liquidity measure. Combined with balance sheet data, we illustrate how temporary liquidity borrowing was essential for maintaining transactions volumes among New York City ...
Inflation: how long has this been going on?
Improving forecasts of the federal funds rate in a policy model
Vector autoregression (VAR) models are widely used for policy analysis. Some authors caution, however, that the forecast errors of the federal funds rate from such a VAR are large compared to those from the federal funds futures market. From these findings, it is argued that the inaccurate federal funds rate forecasts from VARs limit their usefulness as a tool for guiding policy decisions. In this paper, we demonstrate that the poor forecast performance is largely eliminated if a Bayesian estimation technique is used instead of OLS. In particular, using two different data sets we show that ...
Some unanswered questions about bank panics