Are taste and technology parameters stable? a test of \\"deep\\" parameter stability in real business cycle models of the U.S. economy
Lucas (1976) criticized Keynesian models because of parametric instability. For many economists, the "Lucas critique" provided a reason to replace the Keynesian approach with equilibrium models of the business cycle. One example of the equilibrium approach is the Real Business Cycle (RBC) model. However, RBC models have not been subjected to the same scrutiny of tests of parameter instability. We present a prototypical RBC model and subject it to structural change tests. Our results document evidence of extensive parameter instability. Thus, the "Lucas critique" is applicable and we ...
Should Internet sales transactions be taxed?
Over the past three years, electronic commerce has grown explosively at rates of 200 to 300 percent per year. After spending just $2.4 billion over the Internet in 1997, consumers transacted about $25 billion in Internet sales in 1999, according to an estimate by Ernst & Young. The firm predicts that the value of on-line transactions will double to $50 billion in the current year. By 2004, says Forrester Research, Internet sales to consumers will reach $184 billion, an annualized growth rate of 49 percent over the five-year period from 2000 to 2004.
What do cross-sectional growth regressions tell us about convergence?
This paper tests the dynamic implications of beta-convergence with time-series data from 48 contiguous U.S. states. The motivation for this paper rests with the interpretation of results from cross-sectional growth regressions. These results show that poor regions experience faster per-capita income growth than rich regions. This is interpreted as evidence of convergence. However, convergence is a dynamic adjustment process with testable implications in time-series data, while the literature employs cross-sectional data to estimate this dynamic concept. A set of strong assumptions must be ...
Are state government debt levels too high?
Is New England underinvesting in public infrastructure?
Will the tobacco settlement payments go up in smoke?
In December 1995, Massachusetts attorney general Scott Harshbarger filed a civil suit against the tobacco industry. The Commonwealths lawsuit charged that the tobacco industry had conducted research into the addictive properties of nicotine and used this research to willfully manipulate the nicotine level of cigarettes in order to addict smokers and increase cigarette sales. The lawsuit asked the court for damages to compensate the Commonwealth for expenditures paid to treat smoking-related illnesses. At the time this litigation was filed, Massachusetts was the fifth state in the nation to ...
How will future aid cuts affect New England's public sector?
Is the U.S. economy characterized by endogenous growth?: a time-series test of two stochastic growth models
In this paper, I conduct a structural change test that casts doubt on the validity of exogenous growth assumptions. Cross-sectional empirical support for non-stochastic convergence in the neoclassical growth model is the reason that the literature rejects endogenous growth. But, in a stochastic world, both neoclassical and endogenous growth models exhibit disequilibrium adjustment dynamics, thus convergence is not sufficient to reject endogenous growth. After testing for cointegration in regional per-capita incomes, I extract a single common trend to control for non-stationarity in ...