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Author:Sullivan, Daniel G. 

Cross-state evidence on the relationship between unemployment and wage growth

Chicago Fed Letter , Issue May

Working Paper
Should we teach old dogs new tricks? the impact of community college retraining on older displaced workers

This paper estimates the returns to retraining for older displaced workers--those 35 or older--by estimating the impact that community college schooling has on their subsequent earnings. Our analysis relies on longitudinal administrative data covering workers who were displaced from jobs in Washington State during the first half of the 1990s and who subsequently remained attached to the state?s work force. Our database contains displaced workers' quarterly earnings records covering 14 years matched to the records of 25 of the state's community colleges. We find that older displaced workers ...
Working Paper Series , Paper WP-03-25

Journal Article
Assessing the jobless recovery

This article reviews trends in employment growth during the recent recovery, including new evidence that much of the increase in self-employment since the beginning of the recession is likely a reflection of the weak labor market conditions of the last three years. The authors also offer thoughts on the strengths and weaknesses of several explanations for the disappointing employment growth of the last few years.
Economic Perspectives , Volume 28 , Issue Q II

Changing Labor Force Composition and the Natural Rate of Unemployment

This article discusses why changes in the composition of the labor force may have lowered the natural (or trend) rate of unemployment?the unemployment rate that would prevail in an economy making full use of its productive resources?to 5 percent or less. A lower natural rate may help explain why wage inflation and price inflation remain low despite actual unemployment recently reaching 5.5 percent?a figure only slightly above prominent estimates of the natural rate, such as that of the Congressional Budget Office (CBO). Demographic and other changes should continue to lower the natural rate ...
Chicago Fed Letter

Working Paper
Wage differentials for temporary services work: evidence from administrative data

We use administrative data from the unemployment insurance system State of Washington to study the magnitude of the wage differential associated with work in the temporary services industry. We find that temp wage rates are 15% to 20% below the levels that might have been expected based on trends during other periods in workers' careers even after controlling for differences between temps and other workers. Comparing temp wages immediately before and after temp work or to the wages on non-temp jobs begun during the same period as workers were in the temp industry yields estimates of the temp ...
Working Paper Series , Paper WP-98-23

Working Paper
Manufacturing plants’ use of temporary workers: an analysis using census micro data

Using plant-level data from the Plant Capacity Utilization (PCU) Survey, we examine how a manufacturing plant?s use of temporary workers is associated with the nature of its output fluctuations. Our empirical evidence suggests that plants choose temps over perms when they expect output to fall, which allows them to avoid costs associated with laying off permanent employees. We also found that plants whose output levels are associated with greater levels of uncertainty use more temps. The effects of other variables are also tested in order to examine the validity of various views about why ...
Working Paper Series , Paper WP-06-24

Working Paper
Mortality, mass-layoffs, and career outcomes: an analysis using administrative data

Seemingly short-term labor market shocks, such as job displacements, can have persistent effects on workers? earnings, employment, job stability, consumption, and access to health insurance. A long literature suggests such changes in workers? socioeconomic conditions can have potentially important effects on health outcomes, but existing studies associating job loss to health status face several problems of measurement and identification. This paper uses a large longitudinal administrative data set of quarterly earnings and employer records matched to information on individual mortality ...
Working Paper Series , Paper WP-06-21

Working Paper
The returns from classroom training for displaced workers

Working Paper Series, Macroeconomic Issues , Paper 94-27

Trends in real wage growth

Chicago Fed Letter , Issue Mar

Does the housing slump account for the slowdown in productivity growth?

The authors explore the entire construction sector, as well as the different classes of workers employed by it, to see how much it may be contributing to the recent slowdown in productivity growth.
Chicago Fed Letter , Issue Jan



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