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Author:Stuermer, Martin 

Working Paper
Dry Bulk Shipping and the Evolution of Maritime Transport Costs, 1850-2020

We provide evidence on the dynamic effects of fuel price shocks, shipping demand shocks and shipping supply shocks on real dry bulk freight rates in the long run. We first analyze a new and large dataset on dry bulk freight rates for the period from 1850 to 2020, finding that they followed a downward but undulating path with a cumulative decline of 79%. Next, we turn to understanding the drivers of booms and busts in the dry bulk shipping industry, finding that shipping demand shocks strongly dominate all others as drivers of real dry bulk freight rates in the long run. Furthermore, while ...
Working Papers , Paper 2102

Solving a Puzzle: More Nonrenewable Resources Without Higher Prices

Economic intuition suggests nonrenewable resources such as metals or fossil fuels become scarcer and more expensive over time. However, a new dataset covering the years 1700 to 2018 indicates otherwise.
Dallas Fed Economics

Working Paper
Industrialization and the demand for mineral commodities

This paper uses a new data set extending back to 1840 to investigate how industrialization affects the derived demand for mineral commodities. I establish that there is substantial heterogeneity in the long-run effect of manufacturing output on demand across five commodities after controlling for sectoral change, substitution and technological development. My results imply substantial differences across commodities with regard to future demand from industrializing countries and with regard to the effect of demand shocks on prices. Models should include non-Gormand preferences to account for ...
Working Papers , Paper 1413

Falling Oil Prices Drag Down U.S. Business Investment

The dramatic decline in the price of oil has led to massive investment reductions by U.S. oil and gas producers.
Dallas Fed Economics

Journal Article
Demand Shocks Fuel Commodity Price Booms and Busts

Demand shocks due to rapid industrialization have driven commodity price booms throughout history. As periods of industrialization lose steam and supply catches up, busts follow after about 10 years. A new dataset of price and production levels of 12 commodities provides evidence of this behavior from 1870 to 2013.
Economic Letter , Volume 12 , Issue 14 , Pages 1-4

Oil and Gas Sector Increasingly Influences U.S. Business Fixed Investment

As U.S. oil production has more than doubled over the past decade, the oil and gas sector has become more important to growth in non-residential investment.
Dallas Fed Economics

A Tale of Boom and Bust: What Drives Dry Bulk Freight Rates?

As events in the past year have amply demonstrated, volatility in shipping markets is very much back after a period of relative tranquility. Thus, the Baltic Exchange Dry Index, a measure of shipping costs, nearly quadrupled from January to June 2020 as the shocks of COVID-19 first ravaged, then propelled international trade in bulk commodities. Even one-time events, such as the Suez Canal blockage in late March 2021, suddenly roiled global shipping markets.
Dallas Fed Economics

Central Bankers Need to Take Note of Transition to Clean Energy

The path from traditional energy sources to alternative sources with lower greenhouse gas emissions—including renewable energy, and carbon capture and storage—is long and paved with abundant uncertainty.
Dallas Fed Economics

Working Paper
What drives commodity price booms and busts?

What drives commodity price booms and busts? We provide evidence on the dynamic effects of commodity demand shocks, commodity supply shocks, and inventory demand shocks on real commodity prices. In particular, we analyze a new data set of price and production levels for 12 agricultural, metal, and soft commodities from 1870 to 2013. We identify differences in the type of shock driving prices of the various types of commodities and relate these differences to commodity types which reflect differences in long-run elasticities of supply and demand. Our results show that demand shocks strongly ...
Working Papers , Paper 1614

Journal Article
OPEC likely to keep pumping despite budget woes of some members

Low oil prices are hurting OPEC countries? budgets. However, differences in their ability to cope with depressed prices have increased the likelihood that the cartel will keep on pumping, creating further downside risks to prices and Texas oil producers.
Southwest Economy , Issue Q4 , Pages 16-19

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