A \\"New Normal\\"? The Prospects for Long-Term Growth in the United States
Aaron Steelman, director of publications, and John A. Weinberg, senior vice president and special advisor to the president, examine the claim that the U.S. economy has reached a "new normal" of roughly 2 percent annual growth. This has been the average growth rate since the end of the Great Recession, considerably lower than the post-World War II average. Proponents of the new normal hypothesis argue, among other things, that innovation has slowed and is unlikely to improve. They also believe that demographic trends pose serious problems for U.S. fiscal policy and will exert a drag on the ...
The financial crisis : toward an explanation and policy response. 2008 annual report of the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond
This year's article was co-authored by Aaron Steelman, director of publications, and John A. Weinberg, senior vice president and director of research. The authors discuss the key events of the financial crisis, examine which factors contributed to it, and consider how policymakers might most effectively respond. At the core of their discussion is the role that explicit and implicit government guarantees played in encouraging unwise risk-taking by financial institutions.
The Differing Effects of the Business Cycle on Small and Large Banks
Small banks and large banks respond differently to business cycle fluctuations. The average net interest margin (NIM) at large banks is negatively correlated with the business cycle, while the average NIM at small banks is positively correlated with the business cycle. In a popular view, small banks are different from large banks because of their close relationships with their borrowers. But a decomposition of the cyclical properties of NIM into the asset and liability sides of the balance sheet suggests that small banks' procyclical NIM is due to their ability to keep funding costs less ...
The Federal Reserve's "dual mandate" : the evolution of an idea
Since 1977, the Federal Reserve has operated under a mandate from Congress to "promote effectively the goals of maximum employment, stable prices, and moderate long term interest rates" ? what is now commonly referred to as the Fed's "dual mandate." The idea that the Fed should pursue multiple goals can be traced back to at least the 1940s, however, with shifting emphasis on which objective should be paramount. That such a mandate may, at times, create tensions for monetary policy has long been recognized as well.
Lifetime Medical Spending of Retirees
Retirees face considerable medical expenses during their remaining lives. Model simulations suggest that although a large amount of that spending can be predicted ? based on attributes such as income, health, and marital status ? there remains significant dispersion. Households with heads who turned seventy in 1992 will incur $122,000 in medical spending on average, including out-of-pocket expenditures and Medicaid payments. But the top 5 percent of households will incur more than $300,000 in such spending. The level and dispersion of this spending diminish only slowly with age.
How Does Family Structure during Childhood Affect College Preparedness and Completion?
From 1996 through 2015, the share of twenty-eight-year-olds in the United States who attended college grew 8 percentage points while the share who completed college also grew 8 percentage points. But college attainment trends varied significantly by family structure. In particular, completion grew much faster for children from "high-resource" households (two parents with at least one holding a four-year degree) compared with children from "low-resource" households (one parent and no degree). New research suggests that this attainment gap expanded because high-resource households increased ...
The earned income tax credit: recipients, labor force participation, and credit constraints
There has been a longstanding debate in the United States about how to assist low-income families. The Earned Income Tax Credit (EITC) is designed to augment income while encouraging work: The tax credit increases with earnings for low levels of household income, but declines and ultimately is phased out as incomes rise. The EITC appears to have increased labor force participation but its effects on hours worked is ambiguous. Given the low levels of net wealth of most EITC recipients, it is likely that many are credit constrained and unable to smooth their consumption patterns.
A "New Normal"? The Prospects for Long-Term Growth in the United States
Economic growth in the United States following the Great Recession has been well below the post-World War II average. Some observers have called this the "new normal." They argue, among other things, that innovation has slowed and is unlikely to improve and that demographic trends pose serious problems for fiscal policy that will hinder the economy. Such issues are significant, but the "new normal" is not a given. Continued innovation, as well as good policy, could yield improvements in economic performance.
The Financial Crisis: Toward an Explanation and Policy Response
This article discusses the key events of the financial crisis, examines which factors contributed to it, and considers how policymakers might most effectively respond. At the core of their discussion is the role that explicit and implicit government guarantees played in encouraging unwise risk-taking by financial institutions.