Quantitative easing and Japanese bank equity values
One of the primary motivations offered by the Bank of Japan (BOJ) for its quantitative easing program -- whereby it maintained a current account balance target in excess of required reserves, effectively pegging short-term interest rates at zero -- was to maintain credit extension by the troubled Japanese financial sector. We conduct an event study concerning the anticipated impact of quantitative easing on the Japanese banking sector by examining the impact of the introduction and expansion of the policy on Japanese bank equity values. We find that excess returns of Japanese banks were ...
Is China fudging its figures? Evidence from trading partner data
How reliable are China?s GDP and other data? We address this question by using trading-partner exports to China as an independent measure of its economic activity from 2000-2014. We find that the information content of Chinese GDP improves markedly after 2008. We also consider a number of plausible, non-GDP indicators of economic activity that have been identified as alternative Chinese output measures. We find that activity factors based on the first principal component of sets of indicators are substantially more informative than GDP alone. The index that best matches activity in-sample ...
Financial implications of regional trade accords
We examine the implications of a North-South trade accord where investments in the Southern partner nation exhibit country risk. Our analysis demonstrates that North-South trade accords can serve as "credibility-enhancing" mechanisms towards treatment of foreign investment, inducing additional foreign capital inflows. We then examine the issues of trade and financial creation and diversion under the accord. The presence of sovereign risk changes the tradeoffs between trade creation and diversion, enhancing the potential for welfare-increasing trade-diverting regional trade accords.
Sterilization costs and exchange rate targeting
This paper examines the movements of exchange rates and capital flows in an environment where an optimizing central bank pursuing the joint goals of inflation and output targeting engages in costly sterilization activities. Our results predict that when faced with increased sterilization costs, the central bank will choose to limit its sterilization activities allowing target variables, such as the nominal exchange rate, to adjust. ; We then test the predictions of a linearized version of the saddle-path solution to the model for a cross-country panel of developing countries. We use IV, GMM ...
Reserve Requirements and Optimal Chinese Stabilization Policy
We build a two-sector DSGE model of the Chinese economy to study the role of reserve requirement policy for capital reallocation and business cycle stabilization. In the model, state-owned enterprises (SOEs) have lower average productivity than private firms, but they have superior access to bank loans because of government guarantees. Private firms rely on ?shadow? bank financing. Commercial banks are subject to reserve requirement regulations but shadow banks are not. Our framework implies a tradeoff for reserve requirement policy: Increasing the required reserve ratio acts as a tax on SOE ...
The disposition of failed Japanese bank assets: lessons from the U.S. savings and loan crisis
This paper reviews the Japanese experience with put guarantees recently offered in the sale of several failed banks. These guarantees, meant to address information asymmetry problems, are shown to create moral hazard problems of their own. In particular, the guarantees make acquiring banks reluctant to accept first-best renegotiations with problem borrowers. These issues also arose in the U.S. Savings and Loan crisis. Regulators in that crisis turned to an alternative guarantee mechanism known as loss-sharing arrangements, with apparently positive results. I introduce a formal debt model to ...
Monetary and financial integration: evidence from the EMU
Commercial Banks under Persistent Negative Rates
Do extended periods of negative policy interest rates continue to encourage commercial bank lending? A large panel of European and Japanese banks provides evidence on the impact of negative rates over different lengths of time. Analysis suggests that both bank profitability and bank lending activity erode more the longer such negative policy rates continue, primarily due to banks’ reluctance to pass negative rates along to retail depositors. This appears to negate one of the main arguments for moving policy rates below the zero bound.
This paper identifies factors associated with takeoff--a sustained period of high growth following a period of stagnation. We examine a panel of 241 "stagnation episodes" from 146 countries, 54% of these episodes are followed by takeoffs. Countries that experience takeoffs average 2.3% annual growth following their stagnation episodes, while those that do not average 0% growth; 46% of the takeoffs are "sustained," i.e. lasting 8 years or longer. Using probit estimation, we find that de jure trade openness is positively and significantly associated with takeoffs. A one standard deviation ...
The Rise in Home Currency Issuance
Using a large sample of private international bond issues, we document a substantial decline in the share of international bonds denominated in major reserve currencies over the last two decades, and an increase in bonds denominated in issuers? home currencies. These secular trends appear to have accelerated notably after the global financial crisis. Observed increases in home currency foreign bond issuance was larger in countries with stable inflation and lower government debt, and in emerging markets that adopted explicit inflation targeting policies. We then present a model that ...