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Author:Spiegel, Mark M. 

Working Paper
The Olympic effect

Economists are skeptical about the economic benefits of hosting "mega-events" such as the Olympic Games or the World Cup, since such activities have considerable cost and seem to yield few tangible benefits. These doubts are rarely shared by policymakers and the population, who are typically quite enthusiastic about such spectacles. In this paper, we reconcile these positions by examining the economic impact of hosting mega-events like the Olympics; we focus on trade. Using a variety of trade models, we show that hosting a mega-event like the Olympics has a positive impact on national ...
Working Paper Series , Paper 2009-06

Working Paper
Determinants of long-run labor productivity growth: a selective survey with some new empirical results

Using cross-country data, we review the empirical evidence concerning long-term labor and total factor productivity growth. We find that the conclusions one can draw from cross-country data are surprisingly modest. Nevertheless, we confirm the crucial role for physical capital accumulation in enhancing labor productivity growth and develop a role for human capital in an endogenous growth framework. We also find that the performances of so-called "ancillary variables" are rather insignificant in the presence of proxies for physical and human capital stocks.
Working Papers in Applied Economic Theory , Paper 94-17

Working Paper
Market price accounting and depositor discipline in Japanese regional banks

We examine the determinants of Japanese regional bank decisions concerning pricing unrealized losses or gains to market. We also examine the impact of these decisions on the intensity of depositor discipline, in the form of the sensitivity of deposit growth to bank financial conditions. To obtain consistent estimates of depositor discipline, we first model and estimate the bank pricing-to-market decision and then estimate the intensity of depositor discipline after conditioning for that decision. We find that banks were less likely to price to market the larger were their unrealized ...
Working Paper Series , Paper 2004-27

Journal Article
Towards a sovereign debt restructuring mechanism

FRBSF Economic Letter

Journal Article
Predicting crises, part II: Did anything matter (to everybody)?

The enormity of the current financial collapse raises the question whether the crisis could have been predicted. This is the second of two Economic Letters on the topic. This Letter examines research suggesting that early warning models would not have accurately predicted the relative severity of the current crisis across countries, casting doubt on the ability of such models to forecast similar crises in the future.
FRBSF Economic Letter

Journal Article
Prospects for Asia and the Global Economy: conference summary

A new volume, Prospects for Asia and the Global Economy, summarizes the 2013 Asia Economic Policy Conference hosted by the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco?s Center for Pacific Basin Studies. The conference focused on challenges faced by policymakers in advanced and emerging economies as they continue to recover from the recent global financial crisis. Issues discussed included the monetary policy spillovers from advanced economies to emerging markets, the costs and benefits of foreign reserve accumulation, and the desirability of macroprudential interventions, restrictions on ...
FRBSF Economic Letter

Working Paper
Solvency runs, sunspot runs, and international bailouts

This paper introduces a model of international lender of last resort (ILLR) activity under asymmetric information. The ILLR is unable to distinguish between runs due to debtor insolvency and those which are the result of pure sunspots. Nevertheless, the ILLR can elicit the underlying state of nature from informed creditors by offering terms consistent with generating a separating equilibrium. Achieving the separating equilibrium requires that the ILLR lends to the debtor at sufficiently high rates. This adverse electing problem provides an alternative rationale for Bagehot's Principle of ...
Working Paper Series , Paper 2001-05

Working Paper
Monetary and financial integration in the EMU: Push or pull?

A number of studies have recently noted that monetary integration in the European Monetary Union (EMU) has been accompanied by increased financial integration. This paper examines the channels through which monetary union increased financial integration, using international panel data on bilateral international commercial bank claims from 1998-2006. I decompose the relative increase in bilateral commercial bank claims among union members following monetary integration into three possible channels: A "borrower effect," as a country's EMU membership may leave its borrowers more creditworthy ...
Working Paper Series , Paper 2008-11

Journal Article
Easing out of the Bank of Japan's monetary easing policy

FRBSF Economic Letter

Working Paper
Fixed-premium deposit insurance and international credit crunches

We introduce a monopolistically-competitive model of foreign lending in which both explicit and implicit fixed-premium deposit insurance increase the degree to which bank participation in relending to problem debtors falls below its globally optimal level. This provides a channel for fixed-premium deposit insurance to inhibit credit extension in bad states, resulting in an increase in the expected default percentage and an increase in the expected burden on the deposit insurance institution.
Working Papers in Applied Economic Theory , Paper 94-19

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