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Working Paper
Central Bank Credibility During COVID-19: Evidence from Japan
Christensen, Jens H. E.; Spiegel, Mark M. (2021-12-21)
Japanese realized and expected inflation has been below the Bank of Japan’s two percent target for many years. We use the exogenous COVID-19 pandemic shock to examine the efficacy of monetary and fiscal policy responses for elevating inflation expectations from an arbitrage-free term structure model of nominal and real yields. We find that monetary and fiscal policy announcements during this period failed to lift inflation expectations, which instead declined notably and are projected to only slowly revert back to levels far below the announced target. Hence, our results illustrate the ...
Working Paper Series , Paper 2021-24

Working Paper
Moderate inflation and the deflation-depression link
Spiegel, Mark M.; Benhabib, Jess (2006)
In a recent paper, Atkeson and Kehoe (2004) demonstrated the lack of a robust empirical relationship between inflation and growth for a cross-section of countries with 19th and 20th century data, concluding that the historical evidence only provides weak support for the contention that deflation episodes are harmful to economic growth. In this paper, we revisit this relationship by allowing for inflation and growth to have a nonlinear specification dependent on inflation levels. In particular, we allow for the possibility that high inflation is negatively correlated with growth, while a ...
Working Paper Series , Paper 2006-32

Journal Article
Asia’s role in the post-crisis global economy
Spiegel, Mark M.; Glick, Reuven (2012)
In the wake of the global financial crisis of 2007?08, Asia has emerged as a pillar of financial stability and economic growth. A recent San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank conference focused on Asia?s changing role in the global economy. Asia?s relative strength is allowing it to play an expanded part in multilateral responses to the European sovereign debt crisis. And the reforms put in place following the 1997 Asian financial crisis offer models for countries currently trying to stabilize their economies.
FRBSF Economic Letter

Working Paper
The Rise in Home Currency Issuance
Jones, Peter; Spiegel, Mark M.; Hale, Galina (2014-07)
Using a large sample of private international bond issues, we document a substantial decline in the share of international bonds denominated in major reserve currencies over the last two decades, and an increase in bonds denominated in issuers? home currencies. These secular trends appear to have accelerated notably after the global financial crisis. Observed increases in home currency foreign bond issuance was larger in countries with stable inflation and lower government debt, and in emerging markets that adopted explicit inflation targeting policies. We then present a model that ...
Working Paper Series , Paper 2014-19

Journal Article
Did quantitative easing by the Bank of Japan "work"?
Spiegel, Mark M. (2006)
The success, or lack thereof, of the Bank of Japan's quantitative easing program is of interest not only as an important experience in Japanese economic history, but more generally as an unprecedented experiment in monetary policy under very low nominal interest rates. In this Economic Letter, I review the evidence that has emerged to date concerning the impact of the quantitative easing policy.
FRBSF Economic Letter

Working Paper
Cross-country causes and consequences of the 2008 crisis: early warning
Spiegel, Mark M.; Rose, Andrew K. (2009)
This paper models the causes of the 2008 financial crisis together with its manifestations, using a Multiple Indicator Multiple Cause (MIMIC) model. Our analysis is conducted on a cross-section of 107 countries; we focus on national causes and consequences of the crisis, ignoring crosscountry "contagion" effects. Our model of the incidence of the crisis combines 2008 changes in real GDP, the stock market, country credit ratings, and the exchange rate. We explore the linkages between these manifestations of the crisis and a number of its possible causes from 2006 and earlier. We include over ...
Working Paper Series , Paper 2009-17

Working Paper
Who drove the boom in euro-denominated bond issues?
Hale, Galina; Spiegel, Mark M. (2008)
We make use of micro-level data for over 45,000 private bonds issued by over 5000 firms from 22 countries in 1990-2006 to analyze the impact that the launch of the EMU had on the currency denomination of the bond issues. To our knowledge, ours is the first systematic analysis of issue at the micro level. The use of the micro data allows us to distinguish between the response to the advent of the euro by new and seasoned bond issuers, and to condition on other issue characteristics. We find that the impact on new issuers is larger than on seasoned issuers and that most of the increase in the ...
Working Paper Series , Paper 2008-20

Journal Article
Reserve Requirements as a Chinese Macro Policy Tool
Spiegel, Mark M.; Liu, Zheng (2017)
China?s central bank frequently adjusts its reserve requirements for commercial banks as a way to stabilize economic fluctuations. These adjustments affect the overall credit supply but can also lead to the reallocation of credit and capital. Evidence shows that increases in reserve requirements raise off-balance-sheet lending, which typically benefits China?s more productive private sector, at the expense of on-balance-sheet loans to less productive state-owned enterprises. Under certain conditions, reserve requirements can be a useful additional policy instrument for improving resource ...
FRBSF Economic Letter

Working Paper
Reestablishing the income-democracy nexus
Spiegel, Mark M.; Corvalen, Alejandro; Benhabib, Jess (2011)
A number of recent empirical studies have cast doubt on the "modernization theory" of democratization, which posits that increases in income are conducive to increases in democracy levels. This doubt stems mainly from the fact that while a strong positive correlation exists between income and democracy levels, the relationship disappears when one controls for country fixed effects. This raises the possibility that the correlation in the data reflects a third causal characteristic, such as institutional quality. In this paper, we reexamine the robustness of the income-democracy relationship. ...
Working Paper Series , Paper 2011-09

Journal Article
On the efficiency effects of tax competition for firms
Mattey, Joe P.; Spiegel, Mark M. (1996-06)
The Region , Volume 10 , Issue Jun , Pages 50-51

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