Expected stock returns and volatility in a production economy: a theory and some evidence
The sign of the relationship between expected stock market returns and volatility appears to vary over time, a result that seems at odds with basic notions of risk and return. In this paper we construct an economy where production involves the use of both labor and capital as inputs. We show that when capital investment is "sticky," the sign of the relation between stock market risk and return varies in accordance with the supply of labor but requires no time variation in preferences. In particular, we show that for asset market equilibria where firms face an elastic supply of labor, the ...
Derivatives and corporate risk management: participation and volume decisions in the insurance industry
In this paper we formulate and test a number of hypotheses regarding insurer participation and volume decisions in derivatives markets. Several specific hypotheses are supported by our analysis. We find evidence consistent with the idea that insurers are motivated to use financial derivatives to hedge the costs of financial distress, interest rate, liquidity, and exchange rate risks. We also find some evidence that insurers use these instruments to hedge embedded options and manage their tax bills. We also find evidence of significant economies of scale in the use of derivatives. ...
Decentralized production and public liquidity with private information
Firms with private information about the outcomes of production under uncertainty may face capital (liquidity) constraints that prevent them from attaining efficient levels of investment in a world with costly and/or imperfect monitoring. As an alternative, we examine the efficiency of a simple pooling scheme designed to provide a public (cooperative) supply of liquidity that results in the first best outcome for economic growth. We show that if, absent aggregate uncertainty, the elasticity of scale of the production technology is sufficiently small, then efficient levels of investment and ...
Emerging debt and equity markets: an exploratory investigation of integration using daily data
In this paper we examine integration between emerging and U.S. debt and equity markets. We first investigate price changes around significant "events," in this case changes in short-term U.S. interest rates brought about by actions of the Federal Reserve. Second, we estimate the predictability of returns using both domestic and U.S. variables. Finally, we test whether a single latent variable can explain these returns. The evidence suggests that the degree of integration varies with security types and the country of origin. However, these differences between security types become less ...
Form invariance in biased sampling problems
Concentrated shareholdings and the number of outside analysts
Assuming some fixed cost to information acquisition, diffuse shareholders in publicly held firms have little incentive to produce information that can substitute for the services of financial analysts. However, we argue that concentrated shareholdings, either by outsiders like institutions or by inside managers, reduce the demand for analyst services. The former group finds it worthwhile to produce its own information and avoid any moral hazard problems associated with analyst forecasts, while the concentration of shareholdings by insiders reduces the moral hazard problem associated with ...
Debt, hedging, and human capital
This paper provides a theory of debt and hedging based on human capital. We distinguish human capital from physical capital in two ways: (1) human capital is inalienable and can exercise a one-sided option to leave the firm, and (2) human capital is not perfectly replaceable. We show that a firm may reach the first best solution while issuing debt or equity to outsiders provided that either the insiders receive a senior claim or that the firm hedges. We then show that, given asymmetric information concerning costs, the only viable solution has the firm issuing debt to outsiders and hedging.
Policy essay--new tools for regulators in a high-tech world
The rise of risk management
Risk management is nothing new, despite the increased attention given to the subject over the past decade or two. For well over one hundred years farmers have engaged in risk management, hedging their risks against price fluctuations in commodity markets. Unlike a family farmer, however, a corporation is owned by shareholders, who can, if they so wish, greatly reduce or eliminate the risk of low prices simply by holding a diversified portfolio. ; Why, then, are managers doing for shareholders what shareholders apparently can do for themselves? This article provides a review of the rationales ...
Buy, sell, or hold? Valuing cash flows from mortgage lending