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Conference Paper
Macroprudential policies in open emerging economies
Report
Monetary cycles, financial cycles, and the business cycle
One of the most robust stylized facts in macroeconomics is the forecasting power of the term spread for future real activity. The economic rationale for this forecasting power usually appeals to expectations of future interest rates, which affect the slope of the term structure. In this paper, we propose a possible causal mechanism for the forecasting power of the term spread, deriving from the balance sheet management of financial intermediaries. When monetary tightening is associated with a flattening of the term spread, it reduces net interest margin, which in turn makes lending less ...
Report
Dynamic Leverage Asset Pricing
We empirically investigate predictions from alternative intermediary asset pricing theories. The theories distinguish themselves in their use of intermediary equity or leverage as pricing factors or forecasting variables. We find strong support for a parsimonious dynamic pricing model based on broker-dealer leverage as the return forecasting variable and shocks to broker-dealer leverage as a cross-sectional pricing factor. The model performs well in comparison to other intermediary asset pricing models as well as benchmark pricing models, and extends the cross-sectional results by Adrian, ...
Journal Article
Liquidity, monetary policy, and financial cycles
A close look at how financial intermediaries manage their balance sheets suggests that these institutions raise their leverage during asset price booms and lower it during downturns - pro-cyclical actions that tend to exaggerate the fluctuations of the financial cycle. The authors of this study argue that the growth rate of aggregate balance sheets may be the most fitting measure of liquidity in a market-based financial system. Moreover, the authors show a strong correlation between balance sheet growth and the easing and tightening of monetary policy.
Working Paper
The international monetary and financial system: a capital account historical perspective
In analysing the performance of the international monetary and financial system (IMFS), too much attention has been paid to the current account and far too little to the capital account. This is true of both formal analytical models and historical narratives. This approach may be reasonable when financial markets are highly segmented. But it is badly inadequate when they are closely integrated, as they have been most of the time since at least the second half of the 19th century. Zeroing on the capital account shifts the focus from the goods markets to asset markets and balance sheets. Seen ...
Report
The changing nature of financial intermediation and the financial crisis of 2007-09
The financial crisis of 2007-09 highlighted the changing role of financial institutions and the growing importance of the "shadow banking system," which grew out of the securitization of assets and the integration of banking with capital market developments. This trend was most pronounced in the United States, but it also had a profound influence on the global financial system as a whole. In a market-based financial system, banking and capital market developments are inseparable, and funding conditions are tied closely to fluctuations in the leverage of market-based financial intermediaries. ...
Report
Financial intermediation, asset prices, and macroeconomic dynamics
Fluctuations in the aggregate balance sheets of financial intermediaries provide a window on the joint determination of asset prices and macroeconomic aggregates. We document that financial intermediary balance sheets contain strong predictive power for future excess returns on a broad set of equity, corporate, and Treasury bond portfolios. We also show that the same intermediary variables that predict excess returns forecast real economic activity and various measures of inflation. Our findings point to the importance of financing frictions in macroeconomic dynamics and provide quantitative ...
Report
Precautionary Demand and Liquidity in Payment Systems
In large-value real-time gross settlement payment systems, banks rely heavily on incoming funds to finance outgoing payments. Such reliance necessitates a high degree of coordination and synchronization. We construct a model of a payment system calibrated for the U.S. Fedwire system and examine the impact of realistic disruptions motivated by the recent financial crisis. In such settings, individually cautious behavior can have a significant and detrimental impact on the overall functioning of the payment system through a multiplier effect. Our results quantify the mutually reinforcing nature ...
Working Paper
Informational events that trigger currency attacks