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Author:Sheremirov, Viacheslav 

Working Paper
Price dispersion and inflation: new facts and theoretical implications

From a macroeconomic perspective, price rigidity is often perceived to be an important source of price dispersion, with significant implications for the dynamic properties of aggregate variables, welfare calculations, and the design of optimal policy. For instance, in standard New Keynesian models, the key cost of business cycles stems from the price dispersion resulting from firms' inability to adjust prices instantaneously. However, different macroeconomic models make conflicting predictions about the level of price dispersion, as well as about its dynamic properties and sensitivity to ...
Working Papers , Paper 15-10

Are the Demand and Supply Channels of Inflation Persistent? Evidence from a Novel Decomposition of PCE Inflation

Using highly disaggregated personal consumption expenditures data, I analyze whether the recent inflation run-up is explained by supply shocks more than by demand shocks, and whether these demand and supply shocks are likely persistent or transitory. I develop a new decomposition method that enables me to classify inflation in disaggregated consumption categories as being driven predominantly by persistent supply shocks, transitory supply shocks, transitory demand shocks, or persistent demand shocks. Similar to other recent analyses, this brief finds that both demand and supply shocks are ...
Current Policy Perspectives

Sectoral inflation and the Phillips curve: what has changed since the Great Recession?

Using sectoral data at a medium level of aggregation, we find that price changes became less responsive to aggregate unemployment around 2009?2010. The slopes of the disaggregated Phillips curves diminished in many sectors, including housing and some services. We also document a decrease in sectoral inflation persistence, suggesting an increase in the weight of the forward-looking inflation expectation component and a decrease in the weight of the backward-looking component.
Current Policy Perspectives , Paper 17-5

Working Paper
The effects of government spending on real exchange rates: evidence from military spending panel data

Using panel data on military spending for 125 countries, we document new facts about the effects of changes in government purchases on the real exchange rate, consumption, and current accounts in both advanced and developing countries. While an increase in government purchases causes real exchange rates to appreciate and increases consumption significantly in developing countries, it causes real exchange rates to depreciate and decreases consumption in advanced countries. The current account deteriorates in both groups of countries. These findings are not consistent with standard ...
Working Papers , Paper 16-14

The Drivers of Inflation Dynamics during the Pandemic: (Early) Evidence from Disaggregated Consumption Data

What explains inflation dynamics during the COVID-19 pandemic? This brief focuses on the relative roles of demand and supply factors. Prices and quantities of consumed goods and services are positively correlated following demand changes and negatively correlated in response to supply disturbances. Employing disaggregated indexes from personal consumption expenditures data, this brief documents a positive relationship between prices and quantities during the early stages of the pandemic, followed by a negative relationship in the later period. Thus, while the short deflation episode in March ...
Current Policy Perspectives

Working Paper
Output Spillovers from U.S. Monetary Policy: The Role of International Trade and Financial Linkages

We estimate that U.S. monetary policy has sizable spillover effects on global economic activity. In response to a surprise increase in the federal funds rate of 25 basis points, real output in our sample of 44 countries declines on average by 0.9% after three years. We find that international trade is a more important factor than international finance in explaining these spillovers. In particular, countries with a high share of exports and imports in output have 79% larger responses than countries with a low share, whereas we do not find significant heterogeneity depending on a country’s ...
Working Papers , Paper 19-15

Working Paper
Do Multisectoral New Keynesian Models Match Sectoral Data?

We document empirical regularities of disaggregated inflation and consumption and study whether multisectoral New Keynesian models can explain them. We focus on higher moments of the inflation and consumption growth distributions as well as on the contemporaneous comovement of these two variables. We find that the sectoral distributions of inflation and consumption growth are asymmetric, with inflation skewed negatively and consumption growth positively. Both distributions are highly leptokurtic. In the full sample, from the mid-1980s through 2021, sectoral inflation and consumption growth ...
Working Papers , Paper 22-14

Working Paper
Fiscal multipliers in advanced and developing countries: evidence from military spending

Using novel data on military spending for 129 countries in the period 1988?2013, this paper provides new evidence on the effects of government spending on output in advanced and developing countries. Identifying government-spending shocks with an exogenous variation in military spending, we estimate one-year fiscal multipliers in the range 0.75-0.85. The cumulative multipliers remain significantly different from zero within three years after the shock. We find substantial heterogeneity in the multipliers across groups of countries. We then explore three potential sources leading to ...
Working Papers , Paper 19-3

Working Paper
The Transmission Mechanisms of International Business Cycles: Output Spillovers through Trade and Financial Linkages

We study the transmission channels through which shocks affect the global economy and the cross-country comovement of real economic activity. For this purpose, we collect detailed data on international trade and financial linkages as well as domestic macro and financial variables for a large set of countries. We document significant international output comovement following U.S. monetary shocks, and find that openness to international trade matters more than financial openness in explaining cross-country spillovers. In particular, output in countries with a high share of exports and imports ...
Working Papers , Paper 21-13

Working Paper
Price setting in online markets: does IT click?

Using a unique dataset of daily U.S. and U.K. price listings and the associated number of clicks for precisely defined goods from a major shopping platform, this paper explores how prices are set in online markets, which have a number of special properties such as low search costs, low costs of monitoring competitors' prices, and low costs of nominal price adjustment. High-quality data are not only useful to estimate price rigidity and other properties of price adjustment in online commerce but also allow comparing the behavior of those properties with estimates available from ...
Working Papers , Paper 15-1




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