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Author:Schwartzman, Felipe 

Journal Article
The Business Cycle Behavior of Working Capital

This article investigates the cyclical properties of different components of working capital, with special attention to the correlations across time with output and cash flow to firms. The findings are as follows: First, inventories lag business cycles before 1984 by about three quarters. However, the lead-lag relationship becomes shorter in the more recent period. Second, cash holdings broadly defined to include short-term investments commonly lead the business cycle, consistent with the cash-in-advance model for short-term production decisions. Finally, trade credit lags the business cycle ...
Economic Quarterly , Issue 4Q , Pages 287-303

Briefing
Using Inventories to Help Explain Post-1984 Business Cycles

Real business cycle (RBC) models have been highly successful at explaining business cycles that occurred before 1984. But since then, shifts in comovements and relative volatilities of key economic aggregates have challenged their preeminence. One possible refinement of the standard RBC model is to include multiple stages of production. This extension allows researchers to use inventory data to estimate the discount rate that firms use to assess future income streams. The results indicate that variations in the discount rate reflect financial frictions that have become significant drivers of ...
Richmond Fed Economic Brief , Issue June

Briefing
Public and Private Debt after the Pandemic and Policy Normalization

As a result of the COVID-19 pandemic, public debt has increased dramatically and private debt seems likely to increase as well. High indebtedness could influence the effectiveness of monetary policy and lead to political pressure for the Federal Reserve to maintain low interest rates for an extended period of time.
Richmond Fed Economic Brief , Issue 20-06 , Pages 6

Working Paper
The credibility of exchange rate pegs and bank distress in historical perspective: lessons from the national banking era

We examine a period during the prevalence of the gold standard in the United States to provide evidence that speculation about a currency peg can have damaging effects on bank balance sheets. In particular, the defeat of the pro-silver candidate in the 1896 presidential election was associated with a large and permanent increase in bank leverage, with the initial impact most pronounced among states where banks held more specie in proportion to their assets and were, therefore, also more committed to paying out deposits in specie. Based on the cross-sectional pattern of changes in leverage ...
Working Paper , Paper 13-18

Briefing
Does Redistribution Increase Output?

According to conventional wisdom, wealth redistribution boosts output by increasing aggregate consumption. However, while redistributive policies can have a short-run stimulative effect on consumption, their effect on output depends, potentially quite importantly, on the nature of household labor supply.
Richmond Fed Economic Brief , Issue January

Journal Article
When do credit frictions matter for business cycles?

Since the Great Recession there has been renewed interest in introducing credit frictions in business cycle models. However, in order for credit frictions to be quantitatively meaningful and qualitatively realistic in business cycles, it is necessary to depart from conventional assumptions about production technology or preferences and/or add additional frictions. This article reviews some of those departures and additions.
Economic Quarterly , Volume 98 , Issue 3Q , Pages 209-230

Working Paper
The Persistent Employment Effects of the 2006-09 U.S. Housing Wealth Collapse

We show that the housing wealth collapse of 2006-09 had a persistent impact on employment across counties in the U.S. In particular, localities that had a larger loss in housing net worth during that period had more depressed employment as late as 2016, without a commensurate population response. The use of IV's and controls to identify the causal impact of the wealth shock amplifies those results, leading to an estimate that a 10 percent change in housing net worth between 2006 and 2009 causes a 4.5 percent decline in local employment by 2016, as compared with a 2006 baseline. We do not find ...
Working Paper , Paper 19-7

Briefing
Will COVID-19 Leave Lasting Economic Scars?

Researchers and policymakers are wondering whether the economic losses associated with the COVID-19 pandemic will prove temporary or persistent. Examining the housing crisis of 2006–09 may provide some clues. Despite the fact that the housing crisis represented a temporary demand-side shock, it had lasting negative effects on employment and GDP in regions most exposed to the boom and bust in house prices.
Richmond Fed Economic Brief , Issue 20-07 , Pages 5

Working Paper
What Inventory Behavior Tells Us About How Business Cycles Have Changed

Beginning in the mid-1980s, the nature of U.S. business cycles changed in important ways, as made evident by distinctive shifts in the comovement and relative volatilities of key economic aggregates. These include labor productivity, hours, output, and inventories. Unlike the widely documented change in absolute volatility over that period, known as the Great Moderation, these shifts in comovement and relative volatilities persist into the Great Recession. To understand these changes, we exploit the fact that inventory data are informative about sources of business cycles. Specifically, they ...
Working Paper , Paper 14-6

Journal Article
Inequality Across and Within US Cities around the Turn of the Twenty-First Century

We review key facts about inequality across and within US cities around the turn of the twenty-first century and discuss theoretical interpretations. Large cities are cities with a greater proportion of skilled workers. In those large and skill-intensive cities, wages are overall higher but are offset by higher rents. Those higher wages are particularly prevalent among high-skilled workers, so that the skill premium increases with city size and skill mix. Over the last few decades, these facts have become increasingly salient. We discuss possible explanations for these facts with the help of ...
Economic Quarterly , Issue Q1-Q4 , Pages 1-35

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