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Journal Article
Monitoring Economic Activity in Real Time Using Diffusion Indices: Evidence from the Fifth District
Waddell, Sonya Ravindranath; Sarte, Pierre-Daniel G.; Pinto, Santiago (2015-10)
We provide an analysis that parses out the conditions under which diffusion indices based on disaggregated information are informative about overall economic activity. Building on work by Pinto, Sarte, and Sharp (2015), we highlight the fact that diffusion indices, appropriately scaled, capture contributions of changes in the extensive margin -- e.g. how many sectors are growing or declining rather than by how much individual sectors are growing or declining -- to aggregate growth. In the Fifth Federal Reserve District, for example, this margin captures the bulk of variations in aggregate ...
Economic Quarterly , Issue 4Q , Pages 275-301

Working Paper
Housing externalities : evidence from spatially concentrated urban revitalization programs
Rossi-Hansberg, Esteban; Sarte, Pierre-Daniel G.; Owens, Raymond E. (2008)
Using data compiled from concentrated residential urban revitalization programs implemented in Richmond, VA, between 1999 and 2004, we study residential externalities. Specifically, we provide evidence that in neighborhoods targeted by the programs, sites that did not directly benefit from capital improvements nevertheless experienced considerable increases in land value relative to similar sites in a control neighborhood. Within the targeted neighborhoods, increases in land value are consistent with externalities that fall exponentially with distance. In particular, we estimate that housing ...
Working Paper , Paper 08-03

Briefing
Inflation Expectations: Separating the Signal from the Noise
Mullin, John; O'Trakoun, John; Sarte, Pierre-Daniel G. (2021-10)
Richmond Fed Economic Brief , Volume 21 , Issue 33

Journal Article
Stark optimal fiscal policies and sovereign lending
Sarte, Pierre-Daniel G. (2006-10)
Economic Quarterly , Volume 92 , Issue Fall , Pages 337-352

Working Paper
The macroeconomics of U.S. consumer bankruptcy choice : chapter 7 or chapter 13?
Li, Wenli; Sarte, Pierre-Daniel G. (2002)
Because of the recent surge in U.S. personal defaults, Congress is currently debating bankruptcy reform legislation requiring a means test for Chapter 7 filers. This paper explores the effects of such a reform in a model where, in contrast to previous work, bankruptcy options and production are explicitly taken into account. Our findings indicate that means testing would not improve upon current bankruptcy provisions and, at best, leaves aggregate filings, output, and welfare unchanged. Put simply,given already existing provisions, the introduction of an efficient means test would not bind. ...
Working Paper , Paper 02-01

Journal Article
Characterizing the Unusual Path of U.S. Output During and After the Great Recession
Sharp, Robert; Lecznar, Jonathan; Sarte, Pierre-Daniel G. (2013-07)
In this article, we examine the extent to which U.S. per capita gross domestic product (GDP) growth has been uncharacteristically slow in the recovery from the 2007--09 recession and investigate whether this tepid growth might be a short- or longer-term phenomenon. We first examine several conventional univariate time series representations of per capita GDP and use these to assess the most recent recession and recovery in relation to its previous behavior over the U.S. postwar period. We then present a decomposition of per capita GDP into three components---each of which tends to fluctuate ...
Economic Quarterly , Issue 3Q , Pages 163-192

Briefing
Using Inventories to Help Explain Post-1984 Business Cycles
Lubik, Thomas A.; Rhodes, Karl; Sarte, Pierre-Daniel G.; Schwartzman, Felipe (2016-06)
Real business cycle (RBC) models have been highly successful at explaining business cycles that occurred before 1984. But since then, shifts in comovements and relative volatilities of key economic aggregates have challenged their preeminence. One possible refinement of the standard RBC model is to include multiple stages of production. This extension allows researchers to use inventory data to estimate the discount rate that firms use to assess future income streams. The results indicate that variations in the discount rate reflect financial frictions that have become significant drivers of ...
Richmond Fed Economic Brief , Issue June

Journal Article
Heterogeneity in sectoral employment and the business cycle
Malysheva, Nadezhda; Sarte, Pierre-Daniel G. (2009-10)
Using a factor analytic framework, we show that employment variations differ significantly across sectors. In some sectors, notably in goods production, employment movements are driven almost entirely by aggregate shocks. Because aggregate shocks drive business cycles (i.e., sector-specific shocks tend to average out), these sectors are then particularly sensitive to these cycles. In other sectors, mainly in service-providing activities, employment variations are virtually unrelated to aggregate shocks and instead result almost exclusively from sector-specific shocks. This heterogeneity in ...
Economic Quarterly , Volume 95 , Issue Fall , Pages 335-355

Working Paper
Productivity, employment, and inventories
Chang, Yongsung; Hornstein, Andreas; Sarte, Pierre-Daniel G. (2004)
Marshall made at least four contributions to the classical quantity theory. He endowed it with his Cambridge cash-balance money-supply-and-demand framework to explain how the nominal money supply relative to real money demand determines the price level. He combined it with the assumption of purchasing power parity to explain (i) the international distribution of world money under metallic standards and fixed exchange rates, and (ii) exchange rate determination under floating rates and inconvertible paper currencies. He paired it with the idea of money wage and/or interest rate stickiness in ...
Working Paper , Paper 04-09

Journal Article
How Have Changing Sectoral Trends Affected GDP Growth?
Hornstein, Andreas; Watson, Mark W.; Foerster, Andrew T.; Sarte, Pierre-Daniel G. (2019)
Trend GDP growth has slowed about 2.3 percentage points to 1.7% since 1950. Different economic sectors have contributed to this slowing to varying degrees depending on the distinct trends of technology and labor growth in each sector. The extent to which sectors influence overall growth depends on the degree of spillovers to other sectors, which amplifies the effect of sectoral changes. Three sectors with slowing growth and linkages to other sectors?construction, nondurable goods, and professional and business services?account for 60% of the decline in trend GDP growth.
FRBSF Economic Letter

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