Combining Economics with Policy Research
Before she was studying international trade, economist Ana Maria Santacreu was going to be an engineer. But she kept drifting to her parents’ area of study.
A Quantitative Analysis of Tariffs across U.S. States
We develop a quantitative framework to assess the cross-state implications of a U.S. trade policy change: a unilateral increase in the import tariff from 2 to 25 across all goods-producing sectors. Although the U.S. gains overall from the tariff increase, we find the impact differs starkly across locations. Changes in real consumption (welfare) range from as high as 3.8% in Wyoming to $-0.3% in Florida, depending mainly on how exposed states are to differentially-impacted sectors. As a result, the "preferred'' tariff rate varies greatly across states. Foreign retaliation in trade policy ...
Rethinking Global Value Chains During COVID-19: Part 1
GVCs can make final goods production less costly and more efficient, but they are not without risks.
The Greek Debt Crisis: What Are the Potential Scenarios Going Forward?
Sound macroeconomic policies are key to preventing solvency crises in a currency union.
International R&D Spillovers and Asset Prices
We study the international propagation of long-run risk in the context of a general equilibrium model with endogenous growth. Innovation and international diffusion of technologies are the channels at the core of our mechanism. A calibrated version of the model matches several asset pricing and macroeconomic quantity moments, alleviating some of the puzzles highlighted in the international macro-finance literature. Our model predicts that country-pairs that share more R&D have less volatile exchange rates and more correlated stock market returns. Using data from a sample of 19 developed ...
The Economic Fundamentals of Emerging Market Volatility
Countries with weaker economic fundamentals experienced higher currency volatility and capital flows.
Manufacturing and Service Sector Roles in the Evolution of Innovation and Productivity
The relative size of the manufacturing sector in an economy depends on its stage of development. As economies become more industrialized, employment and output increase rapidly. Eventually, for large-enough levels of development, the contribution of the manufacturing sector starts declining in favor of the service sector.
International technology Diffusion: A Gravity Approach
We adapt gravity methods from the empirical trade literature to study international technology diffusion in a novel way. First, we derive a theory-based gravity-type equation that describes the main fundamentals of international technology diffusion under perfect enforcement of intellectual property rights (IPR). We then estimate the gravity equation using bilateral royalty payments data—for a sample of 53 countries and the period 1995-2012—to infer the amount of technology diffusion predicted by the gravity model. Differences between the model and the data are mainly driven by ...