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Working Paper
Intellectual Property Rights, Technology Transfer and International Trade
I study the short- and long-term effects of regional trade agreements (RTA) with strict intellectual property (IP) provisions. An empirical analysis using gravity methods suggests that regions signing these agreements share more technology in the form of technology licensing following the year of enforcement. I set up a multi-country model with endogenous productivity through innovation and adoption to quantify the effect of such agreements on innovation, growth and welfare. Adopters pay royalties to innovators for the use of their technology; the model allows for various degrees of IP rights ...
Working Paper
A Quantitative Analysis of Tariffs Across U.S. States
We develop a quantitative framework to assess the cross-state implications of a U.S. trade policy change: a unilateral increase in the import tariff from 2% to 25% across all goods-producing sectors. Although the U.S. gains overall from the tariff increase, we find the impact differs starkly across locations. Changes in real consumption (welfare) range from as high as 3.8% in Wyoming to –0:3% in Florida, depending mainly on how exposed states are to differentially-impacted sectors. As a result, the "preferred" tariff rate varies greatly across states. Foreign retaliation in trade policy ...
Working Paper
International Technology Licensing, Intellectual Property Rights, and Tax Havens
This paper investigates the determinants of international technology licensing using data for 61 countries during 1995-2012. A multi-country model of innovation and diffusion with international technology licensing yields a structural gravity equation for royalty payments as a function of fundamentals. The gravity equation is estimated using nonlinear methods. The model’s fundamentals account for 45% of the variation in royalty payments. Other factors such as imperfect IPR protection and tax havens account for a substantial fraction of the unexplained variation. A back-of-the-envelope ...
Working Paper
Innovation, Diffusion, and Trade: Theory and Measurement
I develop a multicountry-model in which economic growth is driven mainly by domestic innovation and the adoption of foreign technologies embodied in traded intermediate goods. Fitting the model to data on innovation, output per capita, and trade in varieties for the period 1996-2007, I estimate the costs of both domestic innovation and adopting foreign innovations, and then decompose the sources of economic growth around the world. I find that the adoption channel has been especially important in developing countries, and accounts for about 65% of their ?embodied? growth. Developed countries ...
Journal Article
Supply Chain Disruptions During the COVID-19 Recession
A combination of demand and supply forces caused unprecedented supply chain disruptions during the COVID-19 recession and recovery.
Working Paper
Managing Macroeconomic Fluctuations with Flexible Exchange Rate Targeting
We show that a monetary policy rule that uses the exchange rate to stabilize the economy outperforms a Taylor rule in managing macroeconomics fluctuations and in achieving higher welfare. The differences between the rules are driven by: (i) the path of the nominal exchange rate and interest rate under each rule, and (ii) time variation in the risk premium, which leads to deviations from uncovered interest parity. These differences are larger in very open economies, more exposed to foreign shocks, and in which domestic and foreign goods are highly substitutable.
Working Paper
TFP, Capital Deepening, and Gains from trade
We study welfare gains from trade in a dynamic, multicountry model with capital accumulation. We compute the exact transition paths for 93 countries following a permanent, uniform, unanticipated trade liberalization. We find that while the dynamic gains are different across countries, consumption transition paths look similar except for scale. In addition, dynamic gains accrue gradually and are about 60 percent of steady-state gains for every country. Finally, the contribution of capital accumulation to dynamic gains is four times that of TFP.
Working Paper
Managing Macroeconomic Fluctuations with Flexible Exchange Rate Targeting
We show that a monetary policy rule that uses the exchange rate to stabilize the economy can outperform a Taylor rule in managing macroeconomics fluctuations and in achieving higher welfare. The differences between the rules are driven by: (i) the paths of the nominal exchange rate and the interest rate under each rule and (ii) external habits in consumption, which leads to deviations from uncovered interest parity. These differences are larger in economies, which are very open, which are more exposed to foreign shocks, or in which domestic and foreign goods are highly substitutable.
Reopening the U.S. Economy an Industry at a Time
A novel index of physical contact exposure helps to identify the industries that are the most contact-intensive and might reopen later, as well as lower-contact industries that could reopen sooner.
Working Paper
International Trade of Essential Goods During a Pandemic
This paper studies the role of international trade of essential goods during a pandemic. We consider a multi-country, multi-sector model with essential and non-essential goods. Essential goods provide utility relative to a reference consumption level, and a pandemic consists of an increase in this reference level. Each country produces domestic varieties of both types of goods using capital and labor subject to sectoral adjustment costs, and all varieties are traded internationally subject to trade barriers. We study the role of international trade of essential goods in mitigating or ...