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Working Paper
Designing Unemployment Insurance for Developing Countries
Espino, Emilio; Sanchez, Juan M.; Cirelli, Fernando (2020-09-10)
The high incidence of informality in the labor markets of middle-income economies challenges the provision of unemployment protection. We show that, despite informational frictions, introducing an unemployment insurance savings account (UISA) system may provide substantial benefits. This system improves welfare by providing insurance to the unemployed and creating incentives to work in the formal sector. The optimal scheme generates a reduction in unemployment (from 4 to 3 percent), an increase in formality (from 68 to 72 percent), and a rise in total output (by 4 percent). Overall, ...
Working Papers , Paper 2018-006

Journal Article
Growth around the World Is Still Below the Trend; U.S. Faring Better than Most
Sanchez, Juan M. (2015-01)
The world's output for 2014 is expected to end up being below trend, and the forecast for this year doesn't look much better. Once again, the U.S. is performing better than most other developed countries.
The Regional Economist , Issue Jan

Journal Article
Stylized Facts on the Organization of Small Business Partnerships
Espino, Emilio; Sanchez, Juan M.; Kozlowski, Julian (2016)
The authors study the internal organization of small business partnerships and focus on the number of owners and ownership structure and the dynamics of these variables. They find that partnerships tend to have a small number of owners with equal distribution of ownership shares. Moreover, while partnerships with equally distributed shares tend to keep this distribution constant, those with unequally distributed shares tend to move toward more equal distribution over time. The authors highlight that these facts are in line with the theory of private information in small business partnerships ...
Review , Volume 98 , Issue 4 , Pages 297-310

Working Paper
Fiscal policy and default risk in emerging markets
Sanchez, Juan M.; Cuadra, Gabriel; Sapriza, Horacio (2009)
Emerging market economies typically exhibit a procyclical fiscal policy: public expenditures rise (fall) in economic expansions (recessions), whereas tax rates rise (fall) in bad (good) times. Additionally, the business cycle of these economies is characterized by countercyclical default risk. In this paper we develop a quantitative dynamic stochastic small open economy model with incomplete markets, endogenous fiscal policy and sovereign default where public expenditures and tax rates are optimally procyclical. The model also accounts for the dynamics of other key macroeconomic variables in ...
Working Paper , Paper 09-01

Working Paper
Domestic Policies and Sovereign Default
Espino, Emilio; Sanchez, Juan M.; Martin, Fernando M.; Kozlowski, Julian (2022-05-23)
A model with two essential elements, sovereign default and distortionary fiscal and monetary policies, explains the interaction between sovereign debt, default risk and inflation in emerging countries. We derive conditions under which monetary policy is actively used to support fiscal policy and characterize the intertemporal tradeoffs that determine the choice of debt. We show that in response to adverse shocks to the terms of trade or productivity, governments reduce debt and deficits, and increase inflation and currency depreciation rates, matching the patterns observed in the data for ...
Working Papers , Paper 2020-017

Working Paper
Revisiting Gertler-Gilchrist Evidence on the Behavior of Small and Large Firms
Sanchez, Juan M.; Kudlyak, Marianna (2016-04-13)
Gertler and Gilchrist (1994) provide evidence for the prevailing view that adverse shocks are propagated via credit constraints of small firms. We revisit the behavior of small versus large firms during the episodes of credit disruption andrecessions in the sample extended to cover the 2007-09 economic crisis. We find that large firms' short-term debt and sales contracted relatively more than those of small firms during the 2007-09 episode. Furthermore, the short-term debt of large firms also contracted relatively more in the previous tight money episodes if one takes into account the longer ...
Working Paper , Paper 16-5

Working Paper
Financing Ventures
Greenwood, Jeremy; Sanchez, Juan M.; Han, Pengfei (2021-09-27)
The relationship between venture capital and growth is examined using an endogenous growth model incorporating dynamic contracts between entrepreneurs and venture capitalists. At each stage of financing, venture capitalists evaluate the viability of startups. If viable, venture capitalists provide funding for the next stage. The success of a project depends on the amount of funding. The model is confronted with stylized facts about venture capital: statistics by funding round concerning success rates, failure rates, investment rates, equity shares, and IPO values. The increased efficiency ...
Working Papers , Paper 2017-035

Working Paper
Household Financial Distress and the Burden of 'Aggregate' Shocks
Athreya, Kartik B.; Sanchez, Juan M.; Mather, Ryan; Mustre-del-Rio, Jose (2020-09-15)
The goal of this paper is to show that household-level financial distress (FD) varies greatly, meaning there is unequal exposure to macroeconomic risk, and that FD can increase macroeconomic vulnerability. To do this, we first establish three facts: (i) regions in the U.S. vary significantly in their "FD-intensity," measured either by how much additional credit households therein can access, or in how delinquent they typically are on debts, (ii) shocks that are typically viewed as "aggregate" in nature hit geographic areas quite differently, and (iii) FD is an economic "pre-existing ...
Working Paper , Paper 20-12

Journal Article
Life cycle patterns and boom-bust dynamics in U.S. housing prices
Sanchez, Juan M.; Martinez, Leonardo; Hatchondo, Juan Carlos (2013)
Home equity did not increase much for households younger than 35 years of age between 1998 and 2007 because the increase in house prices was offset by an equivalent increase in mortgage debt.
Economic Synopses

Journal Article
Paying down credit card debt: a breakdown by income and age
Sanchez, Juan M. (2014-04)
The Regional Economist

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